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Rising Cardinals star amongst NL leaders in a surprising stat

Ivan Herrera hasn't played much this season due to injuries, but when he has played, he's been remarkably clutch.
ByAndrew Wang|
St. Louis Cardinals v Texas Rangers
St. Louis Cardinals v Texas Rangers | Ron Jenkins/GettyImages

In a year of runway for young players, no St. Louis Cardinals player has shown more promise to become a superstar than Ivan Herrera. Since 2024, he ranks amongst the best hitters in baseball on a rate basis. However, with a catching logjam in 2024 and multiple IL stints in 2025, he's spent more time off the Major League field than he has on. Herrera has shown potential to develop into the tentpole bat St. Louis desperately needs, but he has yet to show it for a prolonged stretch.

His rate stats are eye-popping, but with only 42 games played, fewer than half of the Cardinals' total games so far, his counting stats are far from it. Well, all except one. Surprisingly enough, Ivan Herrera ranks in the top 10 in win-probability added amongst all hitters in MLB. At 2.4 WPA, Herrera ranks 9th in all of baseball, only behind superstar names such as Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Tucker, and Aaron Judge.

Ivan Herrera has come up clutch when it matters most.

Though Herrera has only hit 8 home runs this season, they've been some of the most important homers of the year. His biggest swing came against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 9th, where he clubbed a three-run shot in the bottom of the 8th inning to give the Cardinals a one-run lead. Though Ryan Helsley squandered his save opportunity, Herrera's home run increased the Cardinals' win probability by 69%.

A similar two-run homer against the Kansas City Royals also gave the Cardinals a one-run lead on June 5th. Though the Cardinals would give up that lead as well, a walk-off hit by Willson Contreras saved the day in the end. Though he doesn't have the power potential of some of the sluggers ahead of him in the list, like Ohtani, Raleigh, or Judge, Herrera's homers have come in the most clutch situations. 4 of his 8 home runs have either tied the game or given the Cardinals the lead, including two in his three-homer game against the Angels in April.

The Cardinals' lineup has been performing just fine without Ivan Herrera, but there's no question it will improve once he returns from his hamstring injury. As the Cardinals try for an NL Central division crown and a spot in the postseason for the first time in three years, Herrera's timely heroics will need to continue upon his return.