Rising Cardinals prospect gives shades of last homegrown MVP candidate

Toolsy outfielders producing at the upper levels of the minor leagues are hard not to get excited about, especially when that player looks like St. Louis Cardinals prospect Joshua Baez.

Going into this year, Baez was kind of a "lost" prospect. A second-round pick in 2022, four years into his minor league career, Baez still had not made it past the High-A level and wasn't really making good on the promise the Cardinals saw in him. His swing-and-miss was at crazy levels, looking more like a 20-grade hit tool guy than someone who could ever produce against big league pitching.

Well, something started to change in 2024, and in 2025, Baez now looks like a completely different prospect, one who even Baseball America believes may be a top 100 guy in the near future after not even being ranked in the Cardinals' top 30 prospects by them entering the year.

Between High-A and Double-A this year, Baez is slashing .287/.386/.483 with 15 home runs, 63 RBI, and 46 stolen bases, and may end up in the 20/50 club by the end of this season. He's cut down his swing and misses significantly, is chasing fewer pitches, and has the best HardHit% of his minor league career thus far.

When you watch Baez play, and when you look at his tools, it's hard not to think back to Tyler O'Neill, whom the Cardinals acquired from the Seattle Mariners when he was still a prospect, and his exciting tools ended up leading to a top ten finish in MVP voting in 2021.

Why Joshua Baez gives Cardinals fans Tyler O'Neill vibes

Trust me when I say, this "comp" is not a diss on Baez. Most of you know that, but I know some people were so sick of O'Neill by the end of this Cardinals tenure that this may feel like I am critiquing Baez, but that is far from the truth.

Like O'Neill, Baez is a fast runner who plays really nice outfield defense. He's an athlete with a big arm, meaning that if he can do damage at the plate, he's capable of heights that most players are not able to get to.

After showing horrific contact skills for years, Baez is now more of an average and maybe even above-average contact player moving forward. He's made enough changes in his game to this point to give the Cardinals confidence that his swing-and-miss won't keep him from ever being a big leaguer.

Baseball America's Geoff Pontes talked about him this past week, and he highlighted those newfound contact skills and plus approach, and he's seeing Baez's bat producing plus-plus power moving forward as the centerpiece of his game. You love to hear specifically about how Baez is hitting balls with authority and at the right angles, meaning that his power can truly translate as he moves up levels.

Looking at a player like Baez, there's so much variance in who he could become as a player that even contributing at the big leagues at some point is a positive outcome. But the heights he could get to with the tools he has are truly special, which is why he reminds me so much of O'Neill coming up.

O'Neill had all of those tools, and for his Cardinals career, he was mostly a league-average bat who played excellent defense. In the one year it all came together, 2021, O'Neill finished eighth in MVP voting while slashing .286/.352/.560 (.921 OPS) with 34 home runs and 80 RBI while swiping 15 bases.

Baez's tools scream to be that kind of upside, but like O'Neill, there could be a lot of variance year to year as well. Baez is certainly not guaranteed to ever have a season close to what O'Neill did in 2021, but it's hard not to get excited about the potential he has as a player.

His speed and defense help raise his floor and that ceiling as well. Even if Baez makes it to the majors and struggles to translate things at the plate, his other skills could buy him time and bring value to the Cardinals while he figures that out. But if that power, contact, and athleticism all come together, you're talking about a potential 5+ WAR player.

There's still quite a bit of developing likely left to go for Baez before he makes a big league debut, but the Cardinals are likely to add him to their 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. With the Cardinals' struggles in terms of getting consistent production from their outfield over the years, Baez is someone I am sure they are keeping a close eye on.