Reds' latest injury could change 2026 outlook for Cardinals

The NL Central isn't exactly a powerhouse. You've got the Cubs and Brewers, who will likely be at the top of the division. Whoever finishes in second place might be a Wild Card team. You've got the Pirates, who could be in the middle of the pack after a busy offseason, the Reds, who were a playoff team last year, and the Cardinals, who tore down their roster but still have some good players to build around.

This might be a little biased or optimistic, but the last three spots in the division seem to be up for grabs, even for the rebuilding Cardinals, though most are predicting that they'll finish at the very bottom. The Cardinals haven't dealt with any major injury issues just yet, but the same cannot be said for the Reds.

Right-hander Hunter Greene will have surgery on his right elbow to remove bone chips, and that will keep him out until at least July. It's a surgery that Adam Wainwright had a couple of times during his career, though the Cardinals were fortunate that those came in the offseason.

This could potentially change the outlook of the NL Central, and that includes the Cardinals.

Hunter Greene's injury has major implications for Cardinals, rest of NL Central

Now, with the Cardinals expected to fall flat in year one of their rebuild, fans might be wondering how this will help them, especially since Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan are all gone.

Here's how I see it. In my opinion, the Pirates have pulled themselves into the middle of the pack after making some pretty solid moves this offseason to supplement their strong pitching staff. The Reds didn't do much over the winter, but they were still a Wild Card team and are led by Terry Francona, so they could always find their way back to October. On paper, the Cardinals are probably the weakest team in the division, but I don't think they're as bad as everybody is saying they're going to be.

Again, this might be overly optimistic, but I see a team that can win anywhere from 75-77 games. Not that this is the mark of a good team, but it's better than most preseason projections. Fangraphs predicts that the Cardinals will win 75 games and finish in last place in 2026, while they have the Reds finishing in fourth with a 78-84 record.

The top of the division likely doesn't change much. The Cubs and Brewers are still the best teams, and I expect them to be in the top two slots. I would pencil the Pirates in at third place. The only difference is that it might be easier for those teams to beat up on the Reds. But here's where things get interesting.

I believe an argument can be made that the Reds overachieved a little last year, and I don't think it's too much of a stretch to assume that the Cardinals could potentially outperform them. And now with Greene out for several months, the Cardinals could have a chance to possibly jump over them.

In order for this to work, a lot of things have to go right for the Cardinals. JJ Wetherholt has to be every bit as good as advertised. Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson have to repeat their success from a year ago. Dustin May has to stay healthy and Matthew Liberatore has to step up as the ace.

But if that can happen, the Cardinals could be a little better than expected, and while the Reds are missing their ace, they could struggle a little bit. Perhaps then, the Cardinals can find a way to avoid last place.

When I look at the Reds' roster, there are some similarities to that of the Cardinals. They have a lot of good young players, but they have guys to build around like Greene and Elly De La Cruz. That would give them the slight edge, as the Cardinals' young players are a bit unproven.

However, with Greene out, things could change a little between the Reds and Cardinals. The Reds suddenly don't have an ace to anchor the staff. The Cardinals don't either, but their pitching is now suddenly not too far behind Cincinnati's.

So, the door may have opened for the Cardinals to avoid the cellar for the second time in four years. We'll see how the Reds manage without Greene. They could still be a threat, but they could become more human without him.