Putting Cardinals fans' cries for an accelerated JJ Wetherholt debut in perspective

Let's be clear off the top — it is very premature to be thinking about JJ Wetherholt's debut with the St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, he's been a blast to watch in camp so far, and he is a different level of prospect than what the Cardinals have had in a long time. Even so, there are a lot of variables that can change his course over the coming weeks and months, so try to hold off on getting too crazy with his timeline.

Even so, some fans seem to be clamoring for a Wetherholt debut as soon as humanely possible. Because people are talking about it, I wanted to at least examine the likelihood that, if things go well, Wetherholt could push for an MLB debut in 2025. Emphasis on if things go well.

Anecdotally, it felt like debuts of prospects had been happening faster and faster for guys, like Wetherholt, who come into systems with advanced tools and perform at high levels right away. After diving into the data, there has been a real trend toward prospects making their MLB debuts the year after they are drafted.

Could JJ Wetherholt be the next in a growing trend of prospects who make their MLB debut the year after being drafted?

Looking at the trends since 1965, there have been different phases throughout baseball where it was common to have prospects make their debut the year after being drafted and stretches where you'd see almost no one accomplish that feat.

From the 1965-1990 MLB Drafts, an average of 9.2 players would make their MLB debut the year following being drafted. The 1991 draft marked the first year since at least 1965 that zero players made their debut the following year, and for the 12 drafts between 1991-2002, an average of just 2.8 players found their way to the Major League level the season after being drafted. The 2003-2015 MLB Drafts saw an average of 5.5 players debut, and then from the 2016-2021 MLB Drafts, just an average of 1.2 players made their debuts that quickly.

It's a small sample size so far, but the 2022 and 2023 drafts have swung back into the direction of some aggressive promotions, with an average of seven players debuting each season, nine happening from the 2023 MLB draft alone. So many factors play into these things though: How strong was that class? How aggressive are certain organizations with their prospects? Are players progressing quickly or more "MLB-ready" at an earlier age? Is there a need on that team's major league roster?

These questions and more will play into Wetherholt's chances of making a fast rise to St. Louis. The pedigree and tools he carries suggest he could be in that vein of a player, but let's remember that even with the recent rise in fast-tracked prospect debuts, it is still very uncommon for a player to get to the majors that quickly, and most of the time, they could use some more time adjusting to professional baseball at the minor league levels.

For those of you who haven't kept up with Wetherholt, he was the Cardinals' first-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft at number seven overall. During the draft process, Wetherholt was expected by many to go number one overall but slid a bit on draft night after a hamstring injury robbed him of a chunk of his final collegiate season. Wetherholt is easily the most exciting position player prospect the Cardinals have had in a long time, and it is why you're seeing hype build around him early in camp.

If you're asking me today, here would be my responses to when we could see Wetherholt make his debut:

Will JJ Wetherholt make the Opening Day roster? - No, and I'd be shocked if that changes. Actually, being shocked might be an understatement.

Could Wetherholt debut by midseason? - Eh, I guess? I would still count that as unlikely. I wouldn't bank on it, but I can't rule it out at this moment.

Will the Cardinals give Wetherholt the "Masyn Winn" treatment and let him get his feet wet at the end of the season? - I think the chances of that are higher than you'd think. Debuting in 2026 still feels like the most likely scenario, but the odds of this are real in my mind...with the caveat once again of Wetherholt having a great season.

For now, let's just enjoy watching Wetherholt play and see how things unfold. If Wetherholt slumps in camp, this conversation among fans is going to die rather quickly. If he excels throughout, well, he'll be on the radar more than many of us initially thought he would be. And if Wetherholt has a minor league campaign similar to what Quinn Mathews just had in 2024, I don't think the promotion train will be stopping at Memphis.