Reacting to the Cardinals' top 7 trade candidates ranking from MLBTR

Sonny Gray (#4 Cardinals trade candidate, #11 overall)

Let's start with the reasons it would be hard to trade Sonny Gray. First, he has a full no-trade clause and was very clear this past offseason that he wanted to play close to his home of Nashville, Tennessee, and that is unlikely to have changed. Second, the Cardinals heavily backloaded his contract, meaning there are still two years and $65 million owed to him.

Gray is also coming off a 3.84 ERA season, although his 3.12 FIP, 30.3 K%, and 5.8 BB% all indicate he was far more effective than some fans seem to believe he was. Gray had a massive spike in his home run rate this year and was terrible on the road, and if those things even out a bit, Gray should be pitching like a front-line starter again.

We all know how much of an arms race today's game is. You can't get starters of Gray's quality for cheap on the trade market or free agency. There is risk involved with all pitching acquisitions, but the best indicators of future success for Gray play in his favor. Teams will be interested, and the Cardinals should get something really nice in return.

Adams mentioned the Reds as a potential destination, and they've been connected to him already this offseason. He included the Dodgers, Orioles, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers as potential fits, and I would add the Braves to that list as well.

If Gray is open to a trade and opens up that list beyond just Atlanta and Cincinnati who are close to Nashville, then I think the Cardinals' leverage here will be significant. If his options are narrow, then I still believe he is valuable, but it gets a bit more difficult. His value will also be influenced by his willingness to stay in St. Louis and if the club is open to eating money. The perfect spot for his value would be if Gray is open to staying or leaving, has an open mind about destinations, and the Cardinals eat a bit of money.

I agree with Adams that Gray should not have been toward the top of his overall list at this moment, as his availability is still pretty murky. If we knew he was open to being dealt, he should shoot up this list.

Where I disagree with Adams is having Gray below Areando. Gray is the more valuable player right now, hands down, and his contract is not crazy for his value either. We also have no idea how available Arenado is, and his options may be even more limited than Gray's.

Place Gray above Arenado, and move him way higher on the overall list if he is willing to facilitate a trade.