Reacting to the Cardinals' top 7 trade candidates ranking from MLBTR

Nolan Arenado (#3 Cardinals trade candidate, #10 overall)

I am on the fence about this ranking based on Adams' methodology, but I think what will surprise many Cardinals fans is how optimistic Adams was about Arenado's potential value to another club.

I have seen fans or other pundits talk about how Arenado may not be movable due to his large contract and declined performance, and while those are indeed concerns, Adams pointed to multiple ways that those have been overblown, things I have also been stating lately.

First, Arenado's deal is not as bad as people say it is. He's due $69 million over the next three seasons, but the Cardinals are receiving $5 million from the Rockies in both 2025 and 2026 towards his deal. So in reality, the Cardinals or any team acquiring him would just be on the hook for three years, $59 million, with salaries of $27 million in 2025, $22 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027.

Still not a great contract, I will for sure give you that, but not some immovable deal either. The Cardinals could also kick in some money themselves and really make this an affordable contract for a team to take on, thus increasing the value they can get in return.

In Arenado's current form, he is still a great defender who hits for average and above-average power. If he is able to tap back into any of that power, he would get back to being an All-Star level bat and would then be a bargain for any time taking him on. Yes, there is a risk that Arenado continues to decline in performance, but the potential of him being a 3.1 fWAR player each year at a thin position like third base and the upside of more is probably worth that risk.

I really do think it makes sense for both the Cardinals and Arenado to part ways this offseason. Where things get tricky is what teams would Areando actually sign off going to. The Los Angeles Dodgers are an obvious fit, but would he be willing to expand his options to other contenders in need of a bat like the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, or others?

If Arenado's list of clubs he will sign off on is just the Dodgers, then the Cardinals' hands are tied in negotiations, just like the Rockies' were when they sent him to St. Louis in 2021. But if he is willing to open up those options, then St. Louis can probably get a decent return. I'm honestly not sure what that would be. Less than a Helsley for sure, but I'm not sure if he'd be more, less, or equal value to a Fedde. That also will depend on if the Cardinals eat any money.

I would not rule that possibility out, especially if the Cardinals move on from a few other deals this offseason. The club has already shaved significant salary space with their outgoing free agents, and even if they eat some of Arenado's deal, they'll still save $10m-$20m of his salary in 2025.

I would personally have Arenado lower on the list of Cardinals he listed. I'll get into the next two guys that were ranked lower than Areanado, but I feel like they are about as likely to move as Arenado would be, but are also far more valuable of assets.