Reacting to the Cardinals' top 7 trade candidates ranking from MLBTR

Erick Fedde (#2 Cardinals trade candidate, #3 overall)

I think this one is going to surprise a lot of people. Adams had Fedde as the second-highest-ranked Cardinal on his list and the third-ranked among all potential trade candidates this offseason, and I wholeheartedly agreed with his thought process.

Fedde has gotten a lot of flack from Cardinals fans since being acquired by the club at the trade deadline. Part of that was because of what Tommy Edman went on to do with the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, but the industry seems to view Fedde in a much better light than Cardinals' fans seem to.

Fedde posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 177.1 innings this season in his first season back from the KBO. Things weren't as good in St. Louis as they were with the White Sox, but he still managed a 3.72 in his 10 starts with the Cardinals. Fedde is not some ace or front-line starter, but he proved he can be a highly effective middle-of-the-rotation starter this year, and did so while being paid at a bargain rate for that production.

Fedde is set to make $7.5 million in the final year of his deal with the Cardinals in 2025, and teams would be looking at paying at least double that to Fedde on a one-year deal if he were to hit free agency. So many teams are going to be interested in adding an arm like that to their rotation this offseason. In fact, I'd argue he may generate the most trade interest of any player this offseason since every club needs pitching.

While Fedde won't bring the Cardinals back a blockbuster return, I do think he can help them bolster their farm system in a meaningful way. I recently compared Fedde's value to that of Chris Bassitt's in the 2022 offseason, and he was able to snag the Athletics the Mets' fifth overall prospect and a throw-in piece as well. Something like that seems like the starting point in a Fedde trade this offseason.

Here's the other part of this that I'm not sure enough Cardinals fans have taken into account yet - Fedde should be by far the most likely starter traded this offseason from the Cardinals, above names like Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz.

In the cases of Mikolas and Matz, both are also on expiring deals, but neither has trade value in this market. Matz may be able to fetch the Cardinals a random prospect outside a club's top 30 this offseason, but I wouldn't expect much more for the oft-injured and seldom-effective lefty. Mikolas has been so bad the last two years and is due $18 million in 2025, so the Cardinals would have to eat significant money just to get a team to take a call.

Fedde, on the other hand, will clear $7.5 million off of their books and get the Cardinals real value in return. Remember, the club just traded Tommy Edman for Fedde and Pham at the deadline and the move was considered a steal by many within the industry by the Cardinals. John Mozeliak must prioritize dealing him this offseason. Holding onto Fedde would be a major mistake, and I do not feel the same about Mikolas or Matz due to their negative value.

Gray is a much more complicated situation, even though I believe he'd fetch a lot more in return compared to Feede. More on him later.

Helsley and Fedde should be as good as gone this offseason, so major thumbs up to Adams for those rankings. The rest of this list is where I have some disagreements with him.