Ranking the Cardinals 8 most valuable trade candidates to jumpstart their rebuild

#4 - Sonny Gray

You can never have enough pitching, and when it comes to acquiring guys with great stuff and the ability to pitch toward the front of a rotation, those guys are always in high demand.

Sonny Gray is coming off a really weird season for the Cardinals. On the surface, his 4.28 ERA in 32 starts feels like a major disappointment and terrible year from a front-line starter. But if you look under the hood, Gray posted a 3.39 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, struck out 26.7% of the batters he faced, and threw 180.2 innings for St. Louis. There is still plenty to like about Gray's profile as a starter moving forward.

Yes, the home run ball continues to be an issue for Gray since his Cy Young runner-up campaign in 2023, and his fastball effectiveness has been in steep decline since then as well. His sweeper remains one of the best in the game, so while Gray may not be able to compete for Cy Young awards anymore, he sure can be a great number two starter for a contending team.

Gray's no-trade clause and $35 million for the 2026 season limit his market for sure and also lessen the value he carries. Since the Cardinals can't just get teams to bid against each other, they are going to have to find a suitor that Gray is open to going to, and the amount of money they are willing to eat on his deal will play a factor in this as well.

The Braves, Giants, Reds, Rangers, and Diamondbacks feel like potential fits for his services, and I wouldn't be surprised to see teams like the Astros, Tigers, Orioles, or even the Athletics come calling, with the latter being a team he had great success with early on in his career.

Gray will have final say on where he goes, but I do believe his talent will be coveted by many teams and will allow the Cardinals to get an offer that helps their rebuild.

This will hinge on the money, though, as if the Cardinals are more motivated to just clear as much salary as they can, the offer won't be as impressive. But if the Cardinals are wise enough to balance eating more money in order to get a better return, his talent warrants something of real substance in return, unlike Arenado.

This was a unique situation, but I think the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander trades from the 2023 trade deadline show how valuable high-end, older starters can be when the money is paid down. Scherzer carried a 4.01 ERA that year for the Mets with similar strikeout numbers and worse FIP/xFIP numbers than Gray did this past year, and because the Mets ate 40% of his big contract, they were able to grab a top 50 prospect in all of baseball from the Rangers. The Mets made a similar deal with the Astros for Verlander, also netting a top 100 prospect in that deal.

Now, the name value and pedigree that those two carried helped their value a lot, as did the fact that they were moved at the trade deadline in an arms race. So while I'm not saying the Cardinals should expect a top 100 prospect for Gray if they ate significant money, I do believe they can get more value than many give them credit for.