The Longshots
Washington Nationals
There has been no rumored interest from the Nationals' end regarding Arenado, and Arenado himself hasn't declared any interest in moving to the nation's capital. While the Nats are a team on the rise, and they do have significant financial flexibility, adding someone like Nolan Arenado may not be the best idea for the young club.
Washington's projected third baseman is rookie Jose Tena, someone who finished 2024 with a .652 OPS in 168 plate appearances. Placing Arenado on the left side of the infield with CJ Abrams, one of the game's best young players, would be tantalizing. However, I don't see Washington being interested in trading for an aging player who is on the wrong side of 30 while they seek to make upward moves. Also, the Nats are fighting three teams in their competitive windows in the division between the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves. They may be eyeing a competitive window beyond Nolan Arenado.
San Diego Padres
There is a lot going on with the San Diego Padres right now that extends beyond the players on the field. While the club is operating as normal as far as filling out a roster, there are disputes within the Seidler family as to who should have ownership of the team. Following Peter Seidler's passing in 2023, ownership of the team went to his brothers, Matt and Bob Seidler. Now, Peter's widow, Sheel Seidler, is suing Matt and Bob for control of the team.
This lawsuit could shift the club's interest away from adding significant salary to the payroll, something that Nolan Arenado definitely brings in a deal.
Additionally, the Padres have Manny Machado on the roster through 2033. While his time at the hot corner may be dwindling, there aren't many other places to move him outside of designated hitter.
The Cardinals may not have much interest in dealing with the Padres, either, as their farm system has ranked in the bottom third of the league for a few years now. Arenado won't fetch a top-100 prospect, but trading him for a no-name lottery ticket prospect may not be in the organization's plans.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals could feasibly make space for Nolan Arenado. They were below league average in bWAR production from third base last year, and it's not like Maikel Garcia blew anyone out of the water last year. Arenado would be a clear upgrade on both sides of the ball for the Royals. Additionally, having a left side of the infield that includes Nolan Arenado and Bobby Witt Jr. may make Kansas City lead the pack in that respect.
The primary issue here is money. The Royals haven't been an organization that spends exorbitantly, but their moves these last two years tell a bit of a different story. If the Royals are willing to eat some salary, then they may be a good fit for Arenado. There's also the fact that Arenado doesn't see them as true contenders these next three years with a weak farm system, so he may not approve a cross-state trade.