Predicting which St. Louis Cardinals get traded this offseason

Nolan Arenado: Traded

One name that has been notably absent from the Cardinal veterans who reportedly want to stay in St. Louis has been Nolan Arenado. I'll get into those other veterans in a moment, but candidly, I have seen the writing on the wall for Arenado ever since they announced this coming retool.

Arenado possesses a full no-trade clause, so both sides have to agree to any potential trade the Cardinals make. Even so, I do not see Arenado wanting to stick around and play out the remainder of his contract with St. Louis. We already saw the future Hall of Famer get out of Colorado due to his frustration with losing, and I do not foresee him risking missing the playoffs for a third straight year with St. Louis.

The Los Angeles Dodgers loom large as the team everyone and their mother is going to connect Arenado to. Even with Max Muncy present, we all know the Dodgers will do crazy things to put their team in the best possible position to win a championship, and they may see Arenado as a key piece toward repeating as World Series Champions.

It is no secret that the Dodgers have wanted Arenado for some time. They desperately wanted to acquire Arenado when he was traded from Colorado, but the Rockies were never going to trade him there. They tried to will a trade into existence with the Cardinals back at the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline as well. Clearly they've seen his decline like everyone else, but Arenado is still a valuable player, and I bet you they think they can get the most of out him in Los Angeles.

Even if the Dodgers say no thanks to Arenado, my guess is that he will open his options beyond the reigning champs if needed. The Phillies, Astros, Mariners, Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays could all make cases to take a chance on Arenado.

Arenado's contract gets cheaper each of the last three years of his deal, and the Rockies are kicking in $5 million for 2025 and 2026. Expect to see Arenado gone this offseason.

Willson Contreras: Stay

I was working on this story before the news came out that Willson Contreras wants to stay in St. Louis and will be moving to first base long-term. This is great news for the Cardinals and the fanbase because prior to that news, I thought there was a decent chance Contreras would want to go to a new team.

Contreras' bat is going to play well at first base. By most major offensive categories, Contreras would have been a top-three offensive first baseman in 2024. Since 2022, Contreras has been one of the best hitters in the game - period. For a club that still needs big bats, Contreras moving to first base could make him that for 2025 and help prolong his prime for years to come.

The Cardinals and Contreras could revisit a potential trade at the deadline or next offseason if either side's plans change. But for now, Contreras will remain a Cardinal and transition to first base.