Predicting the Cardinals free agency path as they look to ascend in 2027

Teams have one month to get their work done before the league shuts down for labor negotiations, and the St. Louis Cardinals have some free agent shopping items they'd like to cross off before the potentially long winter is upon us.

While the Cardinals will not be major players in free agency, they certainly have a few different ways they can improve the roster, and so today I want to share what their free agent path will look like based on what I've heard about their goals for the winter so far. No one can predict how the market will truly play out, but the Cardinals are positioned to do a couple of things this winter.

The Cardinals free agent path centers on their quest for more pitching

1. Sign a starter with upside for their rotation

All indications are pointing to the Cardinals prioritizing a starting pitcher in free agency again, but this time, it comes from a position of surplus rather than desperation.

The Cardinals posted the 12th-best ERA, FIP, and fWAR among all rotations in baseball this year, and did so with one of the youngest groups in the sport. Kyle Leahy, Quinn Mathews, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, and Matthew Liberatore are all set to return, and the likes of Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Richard Fitts, Tanner Franklin, and Liam Doyle should factor in at some point.

Still, there is value in replacing the Dustin May void they now have for multiple reasons. First, targeting a free-agent starter with upside can raise the ceiling of that five-man group. It has a pretty strong floor at the moment, but until more of those prospects debut, most of their MLB arms have limited upside.

Second, bringing in a veteran starter would allow Bloom to shop one of Pallante, McGreevy, or Leahy to bring in more prospects while not actually hurting their rotation depth. It's a win-win scenario.

There are a lot of arms that fit the bill for what the Cardinals may be looking for, including Kris Bubic, Casey Mize, Shota Imanaga, Jack Flaherty, Michael Sorota, Shane Bieber, Zac Gallen, and more. Some of those options are more appealing than others, and they each would come with their own price tags, but it would be very surprising to see the Cardinals come up empty-handed in their pursuit of a starter.

2. Bring in a veteran reliever (or two) to fortify their bullpen

I'm not ruling out the Cardinals being aggressive here, but I do think there is a bigger desire among those who follow the team for the club to make major upgrades to their bullpen than the sentiment is inside of Busch Stadium. Here are some reasons why:

1. The Cardinals know that they have other issues beyond just fixing their bullpen. Their rotation is solid, but it lacks the upside needed to truly compete at a high level. Their offense ranked bottom five in baseball. Yes, we expect both of those things to improve substantially, but the Cardinals know their path to October is more than a revamped bullpen.

2. There are young arms who have recently debuted, and more on the way, that they'll want opportunities for. Relievers like Gordon Graceffo, Luis Gastelum, Cade Winquest, and Brycen Matuz could be important pieces, given the opportunity to prove themselves. Randel Clemente and Sandro Santana could soon join that mix. How about the wealth of starting pitching prospects? Some of Roby, Hjerpe, Doyle, Franklin, Cijntje, Fitts, Jacob Odle, Mason Molina, Daniel Eagen, Brandon Clarke, Ixan Henderson, Yhoiker Fajardo, Brian Curley, and more arms could push their way toward an MLB debut in 2027. Obviously, not all of them will, and some of them could start, but there's also a chance they could become bullpen pieces long-term OR compete in that capacity for part of the 2027 season before starting in 2028.

With that being said, I still do expect the Cardinals to at least replace Ryne Stanek's role on the team, and possibly add a second veteran reliever as well. That could come in the form of a reunion with JoJo Romero, targeting a low-cost, high-upside veteran bounce-back candidate, or spending a bit more, but I can't imagine more than a one-year deal.

3. Pass on the position player market

I'm not completely ruling out the Cardinals going and getting a third baseman or center fielder, but both seem rather unlikely at this current moment.

The center field market, in particular, is rather bleak for what the Cardinals would actually be looking for, so running it back with Nathan Church and Everson Pereira, perhaps Victor Scott, and then cameos from Thomas Saggese, Jose Fermin, and Bryan Torres makes more sense to me. There's even the potential of a Colton Ledbetter or Chase Davis entering the mix.

Third base has more options, but again, how realistic? The Alec Bohm connections seem overstated to me, as I think the Cardinals would be better off seeing what Saggese or Blaze Jordan can do. Remember, Jordan was over 20% above-league average against lefties last year, so I'm not sure bringing in a right-handed third baseman is necessary right now with Jesus Baez and Rainiel Rodriguez on the way as well.

Maybe the Cardinals find a niche with J.P. Crawford, Nicky Lopez, or another left-handed hitting third baseman who can platoon with those young guys. But again, do you really want one of those guys taking playing time away from Saggese or Jordan?

My guess is the Cardinals sniff around those markets but do not make a move here. I'd find it more intriguing if they looked to the trade market for a third baseman or center fielder, but we'll save that for the trade path story.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow