Writers' predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals 2024 season

The St. Louis Cardinals are ready to begin the 2024 season, and our writers have their predictions ready for this year's team!

Each writer submitted the following predictions:

Team MVP, breakout hitter, breakout pitcher, one bold prediction, and a two-sentence summary of how the season will go for the Cardinals.

Let's check out the predictions!

Josh Jacobs (@joshjacoMLB)

Team MVP: Nolan Arenado

Following one of the most disappointing seasons of his career (both individually and as a team), Nolan Arenado is primed to have a bounce-back season and reestablish himself as a superstar in this league. In the first half of 2023, Arenado was an All-Star, posting a .850 OPS and 126 wRC+. Dealing with a back injury in the second half, his numbers fell off, posting a .663 OPS and 79 wRC+. I expect Arenado to be much closer to his All-Star self in 2024.

Breakout Hitter: Jordan Walker

With a strong rookie class around the league in 2023, Jordan Walker has somehow flown under the radar, making him a popular pick around the league to break out in 2024. Walker, who’s still younger than many prospects, posted a 116 wRC+ in his rookie season and saw his play at the plate get better and better as the year went on. 

Walker was a 120 wRC+ hitter after being called back up from his brief stint in Memphis, but what’s even more exciting is the step he took forward once his best friend Masyn Winn was called up. From Winn’s debut till the end of the season (152 PA), Walker posted a .871 OPS and 138 wRC+. Walker is primed to step into the national spotlight in 2024.

Breakout Pitcher: Zack Thompson

It was a bit of a roller coaster year for Zack Thompson in 2023, but the young lefty enters the 2024 season as the “next man up” in the Cardinals rotation, and there’s a good chance he becomes an established member of that group by season’s end.

All five starters in the Cardinals’ rotation are on free-agent contracts, contributing to way too much money being allocated to a rotation that has a very low ceiling. Part of the season the Cardinals have been weary to go after bigger name arms is the lack of cost-controlled arms in their rotation, and Thompson can be part of that solution going forward. Thompson has continued to refine his arsenal this past offseason, and by season’s end, I believe he’ll have earned a spot in the Cardinals’ rotation and be penciled into their 2025 five-man group as well.

Bold Prediction: The Cardinals' offense will be the third-best in all of baseball

Prior to the trade deadline and Brendan Donovan’s season-ending surgery, the Cardinals’ offense ranked top 8 in almost every major offensive category. And yet, their top 7 hitters only played in 10 games together all year. Full seasons from Walker, Nootbaar, Donovan, and Gorman will raise the ceiling of their offense, especially as that group continues to take steps forward in their development. If Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt improve upon their down years in 2023, this lineup can be the third-best in baseball behind the Braves and Dodgers.

Two-sentence team summary:

The Cardinals rebound back to their norm in 2024, winning the NL Central with a 90-72 record, and find a way to win their first playoff series since 2019. Even after making a signifcant upgrade to their rotation at the deadline, they won't be strong enough to take down the best of the National League in the NLDS.

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Kareem Haq (@KareemSSN)

Team MVP: Willson Contreras

After a tough start to his Cardinals career, Contreras settled in and was the team's best hitter by the end of the season. In his final 63 games of 2023, he slashed .330/.424/.589 with a 176 wRC+. Defensively, Contreras has put in a lot of work in the offseason, and I'm eager to see how that translates into games (I've been impressed so far this Spring).

Breakout Hitter: Ivan Herrera

Herrera had a phenomenal season at Triple-A last year (147 wRC+). He massively improved his Hard-Hit%, Sweet-Spot%, and upper percentile EVs, boosting his unimpressive .128 ISO at Triple-A in 2022 to .203 last year. Herrera was also outstanding in the Caribbean Series and had a great Spring Training, and I expect him to carry that onto the regular season.

Breakout Pitcher: Riley O'Brien

O'Brien has some of the best pure stuff in the Cardinals system with a high 90s sinker and deadly sweeping curveball. He led the Cardinals with a 127 Stuff+ grade (Eno Sarris' model) in Spring Training. In 10 innings this Spring, he only allowed 1 run with an 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I expect O'Brien to play a pivotal role in the Cardinals' rejuvenated bullpen this year.

Bold Prediction: Cardinals bullpen finishes top 5 in ERA

The Cardinals found relievers at great value this offseason, and I'm super bullish on this group overall. They have a great mix of established, dependable relief pitchers and solid depth with guys like Nick Robertson, Wilking Rodriguez, and John King in Triple-A. 

Two-sentence team summary:

The Cardinals had an embarrassing 71-91 season in 2023, but I envision them winning 82-84 games this year as a fringe playoff team. The pitching depth is much stronger and in better shape if they deal with the inevitable injury bug. I also think the bullpen has the potential to go from one of the worst in baseball to one of the best.

J.T. Buchheit (@jbuc14)

Team MVP: Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado’s defense should rebound if his back is healthy, and assuming he can stave off age-related decline, his bat will return to the formidable force that it was in the first half of 2023. A return to elite defense and strong hitting should make him a monster on both sides of the ball once again.

Breakout Hitter: Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson led the Cardinals in Deserved Runs Created Plus in 2023, a stat created by Baseball Prospectus. He finished one spot behind Bryce Harper in that category, and while I don’t think he’ll reach Harper’s levels, Burleson is crushing the ball in spring, and there’s reason to think that his breakout is just around the corner. 

Breakout Pitcher: Zack Thompson

If the Cardinals can decide on a spot for Zack Thompson and keep him in either the rotation or, more likely, the bullpen for the entire season, Thompson should flourish. Although most of his stats took a step back last year, he increased his strikeout rate to 9.8 per nine innings. Thompson is having a great spring, and if he carries it over, he can be one of the most dependable bullpen pieces on the team.

Bold Prediction: Alec Burleson becomes a regular starter

Alec Burleson hits around .255 with 15 home runs and finishes the year as a fixture in the starting lineup. As I said in the breakout section, Burleson is poised to hit the cover off the ball; the only question is whether the Cardinals are smart enough to realize it. The injuries to Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar should give Burleson plenty of runway early in the season, and I fully expect him to run with it.

Two-sentence team summary:

The Cardinals’ offense improves significantly from 2023 while the pitching does just enough to keep the team in games. The Cardinals finish 87-75, win the division and lose in the NLDS.

Thomas Gauvain (@thomasgauvain)

Team MVP: Nolan Gorman

Gorman’s defense increased exponentially last year. His power from the left side out of second base is virtually unmatched in baseball. If he can continue his defensive improvements while building on a very successful sophomore season, Gorman could see actual MVP votes. His health is key, but weight loss has helped.

Breakout Hitter: Alec Burleson

Burleson has put together an admirable spring thus far. He has always been a good offensive player. His plus exit velocities, history at spraying the ball, and power potential make him a good fit. Also, injuries will open up opportunities for him.

Breakout Pitcher: Andre Pallante

This isn't too much of a breakout given his very successful 2022 campaign, but Pallante rebuilt his offseason pitch arsenal to replace his weakest pitches. He has the ability to throw multiple innings as well.

Bold Prediction: 7 players will hit 20 home runs this year.

Goldschmidt, Gorman, Arenado, Contreras, Walker, Nootbaar, and Donovan will all surpass that mark.

Two-sentence team summary:

The Cardinals will ride a successful regular season built on their offense, bullpen, and a renewed focus on defense. A trade deadline acquisition of a starting pitcher will propel them to a division title. They'll win the NLDS but lose in the CS.

Greg Simons (@GregSimonsSays)

Team MVP: Willson Contreras

Building on his excellent performance at the plate in the second half of 2023, as well as the experience of being in the organization for his second campaign, Contreras will assume a strong leadership role with the Cardinals, a job few other players seem interested in taking on.  He’ll help Sonny Gray provide another terrific season as the team’s ace, and if the rest of the rotation performs as even an above-average group, credit will be given to the calming presence and steady guidance of their star catcher.

Breakout Hitter: Jordan Walker

After his rookie season was deemed fine instead of outstanding, Walker will continue making improvements in right field.  That comfort, familiarity, and growing confidence on defense will allow him to put more focus on hitting, and that should be scary for opposing pitchers.  Walker is unlikely to be in National League MVP discussions this soon, but he just might finish 2024 as the Cardinals’ best bat.

Breakout Pitcher: Zack Thompson

Injuries happen, especially to pitchers, and Thompson is poised to take advantage of the opportunities he will receive.  With Gray starting the season on the Injured List, Thompson already has a rotation slot to begin the year.  If and when other starters are sidelined, whether by the inevitable aches and pains or a lack of performance, Thompson will be ready and waiting to take his turn every fifth star and deliver a surprisingly strong performance.

Bold Prediction: Victor Scott II steals over 40 bases

Scott has 66 games played at Double-A and zero appearances at Triple-A.  He was supposed to start the year in the minors with Tommy Edman in center field for St. Louis. But Edman’s wrist remains an issue, pushing him to the IL.  His replacement, Dylan Carlson, was injured in the next-to-last game of spring training and will join Edman among the wounded.  The result?  Scott was given the Opening Day nod in center, and he’s going to run with the opportunity - literally.  He tied for the minor league lead with 94 stolen bases last season, and now he has the chance to prove what he can do with that speed in the majors.  A 40-steal performance in less than a full-time role over the course of the 2024 campaign will make it clear Scott is one of the fastest players in the game.

Two-sentence team summary:

Just about everything went wrong for St. Louis last season, and while there’s no guarantee a similar number of things will bounce their way this year, the law of averages has to help to some extent.  Getting back to 90 wins is unlikely, but an 86-76 finish and a Wild Card spot look like they're in the cards for the Cards.

Cilff Williams (@CliffWilliams_)

Team MVP:  Willson Contreras

Last year he had the second-highest slug, the best wRC+, and the best OPS on the team. This while navigating a season where he was benched and persevered through a whole lot of drama. Being more comfortable with the pitching staff I also expect improvements behind the plate. If he improves just a little, there will be no more valuable player than Contreras. 

Breakout Hitter: Nolan Gorman

The safe bet is Walker. However,  I am picking Gorman because I have seen improvement each year. Not just in home runs but average, more walks less strikeouts, and just about every other metric available. His ISO was .241 and the next closest was .203 with no one else over .200.. Now in his third year,  He could become the best power-hitting second baseman in the league

Breakout Pitcher: Tink Hence

Most of the pitchers on the Cardinals team had their breakout ten years ago. You will probably see a lot of Zack Thompson here. We have heard a lot about Hence over the last couple of years. He is the Cardinals’ top-rated pitching prospect and could get called up this year. If he does, he has the stuff to stick and never be sent back down. 

Bold Prediction: The Cardinals trade their most recent MVP

Goldschmidt is traded at the deadline. Shortly after that Mo tells everyone that is his last move and steps down. 

Two-sentence team summary:

The Cardinals’ pitching could be worse than last year, they have no bench, and if Goldschmidt or Arenado don’t rebound or worse yet get hurt for any length of time this could be a long year. My prediction: They see this season going sideways and call up Tink Hence and Victor Scott, and they provide the spark that is needed, it’s just too late. The Cardinals finish under .500 again. 

Taylor Streiff (@jtstreiff)

Team MVP: Nolan Gorman

Gorman has shown off his prodigious power over his short time in the majors but has yet to stay consistently healthy. Throughout spring he has primarily played second base and has solidified his starting spot there. Armed with the confidence of knowing his role and a new routine to help him stay healthy, Gorman could approach the 40-home run threshold, something the Cardinals haven’t seen since 2010 when Albert Pujols hit 42.

Breakout Hitter: Jordan Walker

Walker had some of the best-hitting stats of any Cardinal to end his rookie campaign. His struggles with elevating the ball have been well documented, but he’s packed on a ton of muscle, changed his stance, and is still an extremely formidable figure standing in the box at 6’5”. The power potential may not come to light this year, but his overall hitting will undoubtedly improve, making him the best well-rounded hitter on the team next to Paul Goldschmidt.

Breakout Pitcher: Tie between Tink Hence and Riley O’Brien.

Hence has been one of the team’s top pitching prospects for some time, and it’s only a matter of time before he is called up to contribute to the club. While he seems to be being groomed as a starter, the Cardinals’ way seems to start their top prospects in the bullpen. Hence could be a very effective late-innings reliever down the stretch. O’Brien was acquired from the Mariners and has shown lethal stuff throughout camp, armed with a 97 mph fastball and 82-85 mph slider that’s absolutely filthy. He’ll be ready to contribute in a big way when called upon.

Bold Prediction: The Cardinals clean house

The team gets off to another disastrous start similar to 2023, and Oliver Marmol is dismissed at the All-Star Break. Michael Girsch and John Mozeliak are let go at season’s end, not allowing Mo to finish out his tenure in 2025.

Two-sentence team summary:

Coming off the worst season in two decades puts pressure on everyone to succeed. While they may not get to 90 wins, the team will finish with 83-85 wins, a drastic improvement over 71, but may only sneak in as a wild card or miss the playoffs, with the youthful Cincinnati Reds threatening to dominate the NL Central for years to come.

Jameson McCurdy (@J_macc14)

Team MVP: Nolan Arenado

Last year was obviously a frustrating one for everybody on the Cardinals last year, especially for Arenado who had a down year to his standards. I don’t think the league wants to see a Nolan Arenado with a chip on his shoulder which he should definitely come into 2024 with, expect him to be determined to do everything he can to make his personal numbers in 2023 and the team's numbers, a fluke. 

Breakout Hitter: Jordan Walker

Year two should be more comfortable in the big leagues for Walker. He no longer has to worry about his spot on the MLB roster, there should be less pressure and spotlight on him as a top prospect, and with his steady improvement defensively should help him relax more at the plate. It’s not Walkers rookie season was bad by any stretch, if anything it flew under the radar a bit, but this year I think with less distractions he should surge in 2024. 

Breakout Pitcher: Riley O’Brien

Outside of Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and JoJo Romero, the Cardinal bullpen is full of what-ifs, and out of that group of arms, in my opinion, O’Brien shows the most promise. O’Brien has made 2 appearances in the big leagues, one with the Reds in 2021, and one with the Mariners in 2022, and the Cardinals acquired him after he had a strong season in Triple-A Tacoma last year. He has a great repertoire of pitches that should fit nicely in a major league bullpen, and the Cardinals are in need of more swing-and-miss from their staff, O’Brien should help with that. 

Bold Prediction: Nolan Gorman hits 40 home runs

Manager Oli Marmol has been vocal about wanting to separate Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the lineup, and Gorman seems to be the best option to hit in between those two. We have seen in Gormans first two seasons that he has light tower power and he can drive the ball to all fields. He seems to have improved physically with a slight change to his diet and if the lingering back problems are behind him in 2024, he can reach his maximum potential this season. 

Two-sentence team summary:

Expectations for this season are probably the lowest we have seen in a long time after how last season came to a close, I believe that the Cardinals had an opportunity to establish themselves as true contenders in the National League and they failed to do so, they may not even win the division. The lineup should be one of the best in the league, the rotation and bullpen have a ton of question marks, and I am not confident in this coaching staff that lacks experience, The ceiling for this team right now seems to be around 84-88 wins with an opportunity to use their offensive depth at the trade deadline to improve the pitching situation. 

Miranda Remaklus (@missmiranda)

Team MVP: Nolan Arenado

With a chip on his shoulder from last season, Arenado comes out ready. He is consistent at the plate, hitting the ball to all sides of the field. He trails only Nolan Gorman in home runs. He returns to his Platinum Glove-winning form on defense. 

Breakout Hitter: Nolan Gorman

Get your coconut oil popcorn ready because Gorman will have a tremendous season. With a healthy bat, he can be the hitter the Cardinals have hoped to see. He also becomes a fantastic fielder at second. 

Breakout Pitcher: Sonny Gray

Starting the season on the injured list allowed Sonny additional time to prepare for the long, hot St. Louis summer. He leads the pitching staff with his relaxed, calm demeanor. His propensity to induce swings and misses regularly pleases Oli Marmol. 

Bold Prediction: Victor Scott II runs with the center field job

Victor Scott II leads the league in stolen bases and becomes a Gold Glove outfielder. Scott's success allows the Cardinals to trade Dylan Carlson for more starting pitching to get through the playoffs. 

Two-sentence team summary:

The Cardinals shocked their fan base and had a tremendously better 2024. They ended the season with a 95-67. The Cardinals make it to the World Series, defeating the Seattle Mariners in 7 games.