Would targeting Shane Bieber make sense for the Cardinals?

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Recently, our site expert Josh Jacobs posted a story listing five potential trade targets for the Cardinals as they look to upgrade their rotation for 2024, and ones that may not require such a massive haul. In that story, Guardians ace Shane Bieber was listed.

Bieber is currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation and could be done for the season. He didn't have his best season in 2023, going 5-6 and posting a 3.77 ERA in his 19 starts. He may have even been dealt at the trade deadline if not for the injury.

Had the Cardinals been in contention, it's possible that Bieber is somebody that they could have targeted, and with his contract expiring after next season, it's also possible that the Guardians could look to move him at some point during the offseason.

With that being said, could the Cardinals be a team that looks at Bieber as a potential fit to fill a hole in their rotation for 2024? We know they need pitching, and they need it badly. They didn't have nearly enough pitching for the 2023 season, which has gotten them to this point.

The starting rotation is especially weak and lacks a true frontline ace. They need three starters for next year, but if they're going to target somebody like Aaron Nola and sign him, they won't be able to add all of their starters via free agency.

That's where the trade market could come in handy for the Cardinals. In this piece, we will discuss whether or not it makes sense for the Cardinals to make a play for Bieber as they look to improve their rotation.

Why it could work

Bieber has a strong track record preceding him. He's won a Cy Young, a pitching triple crown, and a Gold Glove. He's also a two-time All-Star.

He had a strong season last year with the Guardians, posting an ERA of 2.88 in 31 starts. He also averaged 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He didn't strike out as many hitters this year, but he's averaged 7.3 per nine innings, which is still pretty good, so he'd help the Cardinals in terms of swing-and-miss pitching. For his career, he's averaged 10.2 strikeouts per nine.

He also doesn't walk many batters, averaging 2.5 per nine this year and just two per nine in his career. A career 3.16 FIP mark also isn't too shabby.

The downside

The downside is that Bieber's stats this year haven't been nearly as good as they've been in years past. His 3.77 ERA isn't bad, but it's the highest he's posted since his rookie year in 2018 when he had a 4.55 ERA.

While I typically don't put too much stock into FIP, his mark this year is not very good. The main concern I have however is his injury history. He's on the IL with elbow inflammation right now, and he was limited to 16 starts in 2021 due to shoulder troubles, so that's something the Cardinals are going to have to keep an eye on.

The verdict

In my opinion, it's a risk the Cardinals should take to go after Bieber. Injuries are certainly a concern, but the good thing about Bieber is that he only has one more year of club control, so it could be a low-risk, high-reward type situation.

I have a feeling it's going to take a decent haul to get Bieber. It's possible that his value could decrease because of his injuries, which could play into the Cardinals' hands. But they need an ace, maybe even two. Another plus with Bieber is that he's still only 28 years old, so he still has a few peak years left, should he remain healthy.

That will be the biggest key for the Cardinals. That could also leave some financial flexibility to target somebody like Sonny Gray, Lucas Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez, or even Aaron Nola.

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