Wise or sighs: Did the Cardinals choose the right starting pitchers this offseason?

It was clear to most that St. Louis needed to add depth, reliability, and talent to their starting rotation. When they signed Lance Lynn to a one-year, $11 million deal, fans figured he would slot in as their fifth starting pitcher, and the team would add two other high-end starting pitchers. Instead, they inked Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $13 million contract. Now, the Cardinals had two back-end starting pitchers.

While both of these righties wanted to play for St. Louis and they would provide more than enough innings, fans were perplexed. The team needed an ace and good innings, not just innings in general. Perhaps, given the durability of Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Lance Lynn, the team could have even reached for an oft-injured but talented pitcher like Tyler Glasnow.

Gibson and Lynn both expressed a desire to pitch in St. Louis, and they should provide a boost to the clubhouse culture. However, Gibson was prone to giving up hits last year, and Lance Lynn allowed a high amount of home runs. Both pitchers are on the wrong side of thirty-five as well.

Since St. Louis signed Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, a handful of other starting pitchers in their "tier" have been signed as well. Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Luis Severino have all been signed on comparable contracts to those given out to Lynn and Gibson. The other pitchers signed were all younger than the two starters St. Louis signed.

Kyle Gibson is projected to have a 4.76 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, and strike out 7.6 batters per nine innings in 172 innings. Lance Lynn, in 164 innings, is projected to have a 4.78 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, and strike out 9.1 batters per nine innings with a moderate walk rate and an elevated home run rate. Both projections come from Baseball Reference.

Was St. Louis wise in jumping the market to sign these two pitchers from the Midwest, or should they have been patient and tried signing one of the other mid/low-tier starting pitchers that have been signed since?

Tyler Mahle - Sighs

Tyler Mahle, another Minnesota defector, is one of the youngest pitchers of the bunch; he just turned twenty-nine. Mahle signed a two-year, $22 million ($11 million AAV) with the Texas Rangers to help boost their rotation after Jordan Montgomery's free agency, Jacob DeGrom's injury, and Max Scherzer's recent surgery. The contract is fully guaranteed without any team or player options.

In 2023, Mahle pitched just 25.2 innings due to Tommy John Surgery in May of last year. He likely won't be back to the rotation until at least July of 2024. Therefore, the first year of his contract is a bit of a wash. In those twenty-five innings, Mahle had a 1-2 record with a 3.16 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.052 WHIP, and he struck out a total of twenty-eight batters. He has only pitched more than 130 innings once in his career (180 in 2021). He has a career 4.30 ERA, 4.27 FIP, and 1.304 WHIP. He also had good K rates for his career.

Mahle is projected to pitch in just eighty-five innings due to his recovery from Tommy John next year. Baseball Reference predicts him to have a 4.13 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, and strike out 9.4 batters per nine innings. He isn't overly homer-prone, but his walk rate is a bit elevated.

Given Mahle's recovery time, I would have been hesitant to sign him. The Cardinals are very much in a "win-now" mentality, so waiting on a core starting pitcher to return from surgery to possibly underperform isn't the best plan. However, given his age, I would have been willing to sign him to a longer deal, possibly three or four years, with a lower AAV.

With the innings potential of Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and either Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson, I would have been fine sacrificing Mahle's innings. Also, the team has plenty of starter depth in Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, and Gordon Graceffo, among others. I think Tyler Mahle would have been a nice addition to the rotation for 2024 and beyond.

Luis Severino - Wise

There was a lot of noise from the Best Fans in Baseball that they should have signed Luis Severino. Severino, who is nearly thirty, was signed to a one-year, $13 million contract with the New York Mets. The right-handed pitcher is projected to slot in as the Mets' #3 starting pitcher.

Severino pitched in just 89.1 innings last year, was worth -1.5 bWAR, and finished with a 4-8 record in nineteen games (eighteen starts). Severino was extremely homer-prone (2.3 per nine innings), and his 1.646 WHIP was staggering. He has a laundry list of injuries these past few seasons including Tommy John Surgery, two lat strains, and a groin strain.

Sevy was an All-Star in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018, and he pitched a total of 384 innings in those seasons with a 3.18 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 1.092 WHIP, and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He was very dominant, and it seemed like he would continue to ascend. Instead, he faced many injuries and couldn't remain in the rotation.

Baseball Reference projects Severino to pitch 112 innings to the tune of a 4.90 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, and strike out 8.8 batters per nine innings. He won't pitch often, and when he does pitch, Baseball Reference doesn't expect him to pitch well.

He is being paid the same amount as Kyle Gibson in 2024, but Gibson projects to pitch more innings with similar results. Also, Lynn is projected to pitch at a similar level while being cheaper. The Cardinals were wise to avoid Luis Severino despite his excellent past. Severino is too far removed from his All-Star seasons.

Michael Wacha - Sighs

The thirty-two-year-old Michael Wacha was signed to a one-year, $16 million deal with a second-year player option for an additional $16 million. Altogether, he could make $32 million in two years with the Kansas City Royals. Wacha figures to slot in right behind Cole Ragans for the Royals next year. Brady Singer could leapfrog him given a strong Spring Training showing.

Wacha pitched in 134.1 innings last year across 24 starts. He had a 3.22 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 3.89 FIP, and he struck out 8.3 batters per nine innings. For his career, he has a 3.96 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.292 WHIP, and has struck out 8.0 batters every nine innings. Wacha has only been voted to one All-Star Game (2015).

He pitched last year for the San Diego Padres, and he will be thirty-two for half of the 2024 season. He is significantly younger than both Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, but he hasn't pitched nearly as many innings each season. Wacha had a tough couple of seasons in 2020 and 2021, but he has pitched very well these past few seasons, albeit in less than 135 innings each season.

Baseball-Reference projects Wacha to pitch 138 innings to the tune of a 3.85 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, and strike out a total of 126 batters. While you would like to see more innings out of Wacha, his projected and career statistics are admirable, especially for a back-end starting pitcher. His ERA is a whole point lower, and his strikeout rate is just above Gibson's and a bit below Lynn's.

I would have preferred him over either Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson despite his higher price tag. Both Lynn and Gibson have team options, and Wacha's player option is less enticing to the Cardinals. He is significantly younger, though, so I wouldn't be opposed to him being on the roster for two or three years. Michael Wacha plus Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson and then Sonny Gray would have made for a better offseason in my eyes.

Kenta Maeda - Sighs

Kenta Maeda has spent time in both Los Angeles with the Dodgers and most recently in Minnesota with the Twins. He was just signed to a two-year, $24 million deal with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit will pay him $14 million in 2024 and just $10 million in 2025. Both years are guaranteed. Between Maeda and Flaherty, Detroit has added some decent starting pitchers.

Maeda has a career 3.92 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.140 WHIP, and has struck out almost ten batters every nine innings. He missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John Surgery, so 2023 was his first year back after the procedure. He finished 2023 with a 4.23 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.169 WHIP, and a K rate of 27.3% in just 104.1 innings. His time with the Dodgers was very strong, and he finished second in Cy Young voting in 2020.

Most pitchers experience a decline in performance their first year back from Tommy John Surgery, but they also typically show a return to their prior form in their second year; however, Baseball Reference projects him to pitch 111 innings with a 4.46 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, and strike out just over nine batters per nine innings. Maeda is going to be thirty-six for the majority of next season, so he is on the wrong side of the pitching age curve.

I would imagine Maeda experiencing a semblance of his old form next year. While Baseball Reference expects him to regress, I would expect him to be at least as good as he was last year with Minnesota. Maeda's contract is comparable to Lynn's and Gibson's in both length and dollars. Given his ability to limit hard contact and walks, I would have preferred Maeda over at least Lance Lynn and possibly Kyle Gibson as well.

Seth Lugo - Sighs

The final mid-tier free-agent pitcher is Seth Lugo. Cardinal fans spoke about Seth Lugo as a player who could help the team's rotation. Lugo just signed a three-year, $45 million contract with the Kansas City Royals, a team looking to improve for next year. Lugo figures to slot in as the team's #3 or #4 starting pitcher next year. He has an opt-out after the second year.

Lugo just turned thirty-four. He has a career 3.50 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 1.173 WHIP. He has struck out batters at a 24.4% rate for his career, and his walk rate of 6.5% is above league average. In 2023, Lugo pitched 146.1 innings, a career-high, for the San Diego Padres. He finished the season with a 3.57 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.203 WHIP, and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Baseball Reference projects Lugo to pitch 115 innings next year with a 3.91 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Once again, Lynn and Gibson are both projected to pitch the most innings out of any mid-tier pitcher. Lugo, conversely, projects to have better numbers all around when compared to Lynn and Gibson.

Due to Lugo's age, contract length, value, and projected high-end statistics, I would take him over both Lynn and Gibson. Miles Mikolas and Sonny Gray should be able to carry the innings workload when paired with either Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson. In my opinion, the Cardinal should have signed Seth Lugo over either Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson this offseason.