Wise or sighs: Did the Cardinals choose the right starting pitchers this offseason?

St. Louis set the free agent pitcher market when they signed both Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Did they pick the right back-end starting pitchers compared to other free agents?
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Luis Severino - Wise

There was a lot of noise from the Best Fans in Baseball that they should have signed Luis Severino. Severino, who is nearly thirty, was signed to a one-year, $13 million contract with the New York Mets. The right-handed pitcher is projected to slot in as the Mets' #3 starting pitcher.

Severino pitched in just 89.1 innings last year, was worth -1.5 bWAR, and finished with a 4-8 record in nineteen games (eighteen starts). Severino was extremely homer-prone (2.3 per nine innings), and his 1.646 WHIP was staggering. He has a laundry list of injuries these past few seasons including Tommy John Surgery, two lat strains, and a groin strain.

Sevy was an All-Star in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018, and he pitched a total of 384 innings in those seasons with a 3.18 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 1.092 WHIP, and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He was very dominant, and it seemed like he would continue to ascend. Instead, he faced many injuries and couldn't remain in the rotation.

Baseball Reference projects Severino to pitch 112 innings to the tune of a 4.90 ERA, 1.357 WHIP, and strike out 8.8 batters per nine innings. He won't pitch often, and when he does pitch, Baseball Reference doesn't expect him to pitch well.

He is being paid the same amount as Kyle Gibson in 2024, but Gibson projects to pitch more innings with similar results. Also, Lynn is projected to pitch at a similar level while being cheaper. The Cardinals were wise to avoid Luis Severino despite his excellent past. Severino is too far removed from his All-Star seasons.