Why the St. Louis Cardinals must acquire Max Fried if he's available

Max Fried is the perfect trade target for the Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will field a strong team entering the 2022 MLB season, but in order to be a World Series contender, many would argue they need to go out and acquire a sure fire ace to top their rotation. Carlos Rodon has now been signed by the Yankees in free agency, and other rumored trade targets do not appear to be available at the moment.

One name that has been floated out there recently is Atlanta Braves left-handed pitching Max Fried. In an appearance on MLB Network discussing the Sean Murphy trade, Jim Callis dropped the potential availablity of the Atlanta ace.

While some saw the initial report of a potential Fried trade as unlikely at best, I'll address later why this talk that Jim Callis has heard actually makes a lot of sense when you look at the Braves and how they operate. Callis was not claming a trade would for sure happen, but in the same way that Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Pablo Lopez, and Lucas Giolito could be trade targets, we must look at Max Fried as a potential option as well.

Let's breakdown why a Fried trade seems like it could happen this off-season, why he'd be a great fit for the Cardinals, and what it would take to get a deal done with the Braves.

The Braves are going to be facing some tough decisions with their payroll

In a recent breakdown on Yahoo Sports, Atlanta was ranked the 10th most valuable franchise in baseball, but had the fourth highest revenue in the sport in 2022. For context, St. Louis was the 7th most valuable franchise but had the 14th highest revenue in 2022.

Atlanta has been one of the best run organizations in baseball over the last half-decade, developing homegrown talent into very productive major leaguers and signing their young stars to team friendly extensions. What is notable about the club though has been their lack of willingness to bring back players that are set to hit free agency, most notably Freddie Freeman and most likely Dansby Swanson.

Even though the Braves have a ton of their young talent under team friendly deals, long-term extensions like those begin to add up when you have as many on books as they do. The club currently has five extensions over the $72 million mark, a potential Sean Murphy extensions coming, and that is on top of a few highly paid veteran pieces like Marcell Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias. If Fried is unwilling to take a bit of a below market rate, he is likely gone after the 2024 season.

Sure, the Braves could hold onto Fried for two more postseason runs, and let him walk for a competitive balance pick like they did Freeman and Swanson. But with how much value they could extract from Fried in a trade, as well as the pitching depth they already have, it is at least worth exploring a trade if Fried is not signing an extension.

We'll get more into the package it would take later, but the Braves already signed Spencer Strider to a long-term extension this past season, setting him up to be the club's ace for years to come. Among their current rotation optios, the club would have Stride, Charlie Morton, Kyle Wright, Bryce Elder, Mike Soroka, and Ian Anderson among other arms that they could turn to if they let go off Fried.

It is obvious that trading away a Cy Young caliber pitcher makes your roster worse, but taking a bit of a step back in that regard and replenishing their roster with multiple high upside youngsters could be worth it for the Braves brass.

If the Braves do go this route, here is the kind of starter the Cardinals would be acquiring in that trade.

Max Fried is the ace the Cardinals desperately need

After a pretty average first full season in the big leagues during 2019, the Atlanta southpaw went 7-0 in 11 starts with a 2.25 ERA in the 2020 pandemic season, finsishing 5th in Cy Young voting. He had a good but not great 2021 season, but then really broke out in 2022 after going 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA while finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting.

The three time Gold Glove winner has proven he can match up with the best pitchers in the game night in and night out, and has remained durable while doing so. He has pitched at least 165 innings in his three full big league seasons, and does so with strikeout stuff as well.

For the Cardinals, Fried would slot right in at the top of their rotation, and be able to fill that avoid for at least the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Currently, the Cardinals only have one starter, Steven Matz, under contract after the 2023 season, so this move kills two birds with one stone.

Fried also represents possiblity the very best option that could be available over the next two seasons. Fried does not have durablity concerns like a lot of the top end starters that St. Louis could acquire, and he also won't require a massive contract until the 2024 off-season. Yes, the prospect capital will be pricey, but the Cardinals have shown willingness to make aggresive trade offers this off-season.

Let's look at some potential trade packages that the Cardinals could offer for Fried.

Package #1 - The Nolan Gorman/Dylan Carlson package

When considering this move, I put together three different kinds of packages that the Braves could be interested in when it comes to trading away Max Fried. The first offer is a replica of what the Cardinals offered to the Athletics for Sean Murphy, but could be a good framework for a Fried trade as well.

It was reported that the Cardinals offered Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson to Oakland for Sean Murphy, and the pair could make for a great framework to acquire the Braves ace.

Using Baseball Trade Values as a reference, this trade would actually be an overpay on the Cardinals part, giving up $89 million in value while acquiring a $57.4 million value player in Fried. While Baseball Trade Values is not how all teams value players, it tends to be a good benchmark. I personally think they value Carlson higher than baseball does, as they have him as a $49.9 million value player, just slightly less than Fried.

Regardless, if the Braves looked to trade Fried, especially to a National League foe, it would likely require a very strong offer like this. The Braves don't need to trade Fried, so if they choose to, they will want a ransom. This package sets of Atlanta very nicely moving forward.

Carlson can join Michael Harris III and Ronald Acuna Jr. to form perhaps the best outfield in baseball, especially defensively. The Braves would have Carlson bat toward the bottom of their order, taking pressure off him to be a "star" in their lineup. Gorman can split time at DH and second base for the Braves, and after D'Arnaud leaves in free agency after the 2023 season, could assume the DH role full time. Woodford gives the Braves another young arm to rely on for the next few seasons.

Again, it is hard to tell what exactly the Braves would want in a Fried trade, but this kind of framework would not surprise me at all. I do have two other kinds of deals they could look at as well, with the next including one of the Cardinals active starting pitchers.

Package #2 - The Jordan Montgomery deal

If the Braves want to bring back some certainty for their 2023 rotation, the Cardinals could offer that by slotting Jordan Montgomery into a deal for Fried.

This is actually my favorite of the three trades I put together, as I think it makes a ton of sense for both the Braves and the Cardinals. First, let's look at the Cardinals side of things.

Sure the Cardinals would love to have Montgomery in their rotation for 2023, but if they have the opportunity to upgrade him into Max Fried, they should pounce on it. Montgomery is a free agent after the 2023 season, so they gain an extra year of control with Fried. Here is how their rotation would stack up: Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Adam Wainwright. Pretty strong rotation overall.

The Cardinals lose one of their young bats in Gorman and an arm in Matthew Liberatore, but again, they can grab one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. Their roster is in a position where it is time to cash some of their assets in for an ace like Fried.

For the Braves, they get back a very good starter in Montgomery to replace Fried for the 2023 season, and could resign him before he hits free agency at a much more affordable price than Fried. At this rate, Fried will likely command $30 million a year or more annually in his next deal, while Montgomery would be somewhere closer to $20 million per season on a shorter deal. Even if they can't resign him, they can attach a qualifying offer to him and get a draft pick in 2024.

The Braves would also receive future talent in the form of Gorman and Liberatore, who can contribute in 2023 but be major contributors in 2024 and beyond. The Braves maintain a very strong outlook for next season, but improve as a whole in future years.

If these two deals don't work out, the last deal I cooked up could be a future oriented move for the Braves.