Why the St. Louis Cardinals must acquire Max Fried if he's available

Max Fried is the perfect trade target for the Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will field a strong team entering the 2022 MLB season, but in order to be a World Series contender, many would argue they need to go out and acquire a sure fire ace to top their rotation. Carlos Rodon has now been signed by the Yankees in free agency, and other rumored trade targets do not appear to be available at the moment.

One name that has been floated out there recently is Atlanta Braves left-handed pitching Max Fried. In an appearance on MLB Network discussing the Sean Murphy trade, Jim Callis dropped the potential availablity of the Atlanta ace.

While some saw the initial report of a potential Fried trade as unlikely at best, I'll address later why this talk that Jim Callis has heard actually makes a lot of sense when you look at the Braves and how they operate. Callis was not claming a trade would for sure happen, but in the same way that Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Pablo Lopez, and Lucas Giolito could be trade targets, we must look at Max Fried as a potential option as well.

Let's breakdown why a Fried trade seems like it could happen this off-season, why he'd be a great fit for the Cardinals, and what it would take to get a deal done with the Braves.

Package #1 - The Nolan Gorman/Dylan Carlson package

When considering this move, I put together three different kinds of packages that the Braves could be interested in when it comes to trading away Max Fried. The first offer is a replica of what the Cardinals offered to the Athletics for Sean Murphy, but could be a good framework for a Fried trade as well.

It was reported that the Cardinals offered Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson to Oakland for Sean Murphy, and the pair could make for a great framework to acquire the Braves ace.

Using Baseball Trade Values as a reference, this trade would actually be an overpay on the Cardinals part, giving up $89 million in value while acquiring a $57.4 million value player in Fried. While Baseball Trade Values is not how all teams value players, it tends to be a good benchmark. I personally think they value Carlson higher than baseball does, as they have him as a $49.9 million value player, just slightly less than Fried.

Regardless, if the Braves looked to trade Fried, especially to a National League foe, it would likely require a very strong offer like this. The Braves don't need to trade Fried, so if they choose to, they will want a ransom. This package sets of Atlanta very nicely moving forward.

Carlson can join Michael Harris III and Ronald Acuna Jr. to form perhaps the best outfield in baseball, especially defensively. The Braves would have Carlson bat toward the bottom of their order, taking pressure off him to be a "star" in their lineup. Gorman can split time at DH and second base for the Braves, and after D'Arnaud leaves in free agency after the 2023 season, could assume the DH role full time. Woodford gives the Braves another young arm to rely on for the next few seasons.

Again, it is hard to tell what exactly the Braves would want in a Fried trade, but this kind of framework would not surprise me at all. I do have two other kinds of deals they could look at as well, with the next including one of the Cardinals active starting pitchers.

Package #2 - The Jordan Montgomery deal

If the Braves want to bring back some certainty for their 2023 rotation, the Cardinals could offer that by slotting Jordan Montgomery into a deal for Fried.

This is actually my favorite of the three trades I put together, as I think it makes a ton of sense for both the Braves and the Cardinals. First, let's look at the Cardinals side of things.

Sure the Cardinals would love to have Montgomery in their rotation for 2023, but if they have the opportunity to upgrade him into Max Fried, they should pounce on it. Montgomery is a free agent after the 2023 season, so they gain an extra year of control with Fried. Here is how their rotation would stack up: Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Adam Wainwright. Pretty strong rotation overall.

The Cardinals lose one of their young bats in Gorman and an arm in Matthew Liberatore, but again, they can grab one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. Their roster is in a position where it is time to cash some of their assets in for an ace like Fried.

For the Braves, they get back a very good starter in Montgomery to replace Fried for the 2023 season, and could resign him before he hits free agency at a much more affordable price than Fried. At this rate, Fried will likely command $30 million a year or more annually in his next deal, while Montgomery would be somewhere closer to $20 million per season on a shorter deal. Even if they can't resign him, they can attach a qualifying offer to him and get a draft pick in 2024.

The Braves would also receive future talent in the form of Gorman and Liberatore, who can contribute in 2023 but be major contributors in 2024 and beyond. The Braves maintain a very strong outlook for next season, but improve as a whole in future years.

If these two deals don't work out, the last deal I cooked up could be a future oriented move for the Braves.

Package #3 - MLB ready bats and a future arm

The last trade I put together would be intriguing if the Braves wanted to acquire a stronger mix of young position players and young arms, something that leaned much heavier one way or the other in the first two packages.

I could see the Braves wanting one more low level prospect in this package, but this deal sets them up with pieces for their lineup and rotation for years to come. Like the first deal, Atlanta acquires a high upside outfielder in Carlson who keeps their outfield defense elite and could turn into a very good bat in their lineup

Gordon Graceffo was someone they wanted to avoid trading in the Sean Murphy deal, but I would have to think he would be on the table for an ace like Fried. Sure, the Cardinals lack arms, but that's exactly why they would go after Fried. Graceffo is their #7 ranked prospect and projects to be a really good middle of the rotation arm, but there are hopes that he could be more than that. This still leaves the Cardinals with promising arms like Tink Hence, Connor Hjerpe, Michael McGreevy, and Matthew Libreatore, so I would not be too concerned with giving up Graceffo for Fried.

Juan Yepez actually came over to St. Louis in the Matt Adams deal, and would give the Braves a good DH option for years to come. Yepez showed the signs of a very productive big league hitter in 2022, and could really benefit from being in another deep lineup like the Braves.

What do you think of a Max Fried trade for the Cardinals? If he were to be available in the trade market, would you make the deal? And if so, what would you give up for Fried? Comment your takes below!