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Why I'm excited to have Sonny Gray on the St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a three-year contract. As a Sonny Gray super fan, I'm beyond excited. Here's why!
This article is going to read a little differently than most of mine usually do. It'll be a bit more personal, but don't worry, I'm still planning to dig into plenty of analytics. I'm really excited to see Sonny Gray in a Cardinals jersey! I can't wait to share that excitement with our readers. Let's start by looking at Sonny Gray's extensive (and outstanding) track record.
Sonny Gray's Track Record
I've been a huge fan of Sonny Gray, who was selected in the first round of the 2011 draft since he debuted with the Oakland Athletics in 2013. In a limited sample, the then 23-year-old right-hander proved he belonged at the big league level. Between 2013 and 2015, Gray quietly emerged as one of baseball's best young starters. In 76 appearances (74 starts), he compiled 491 innings and registered a 2.88 ERA. In 2015, he nearly captured the AL Cy Young Award, finishing third.
Gray struggled in 2016, turning in the worst season of his career. Those struggles can largely be attributed to injury issues, as Gray made just 22 starts. In 2017, Gray was shipped to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline, where he continued his strong performance pitching to a 3.72 ERA over the final two months of the season. The following season, New York tried to make significant changes to his pitching mechanics and style. Gray struggled. He reportedly did not like playing in New York, with the big market pressure and their overbearing staff. New York traded him the following season to Cincinnati.
In Cincinnati, Gray returned to his effective self. In 2019, he made the All-Star game for the second time in his career on the back of a fabulous season. Gray made 31 starts and recorded an ERA of 2.87. His strikeout rate jumped significantly. Gray finished 7th in Cy Young Award voting. After two more strong seasons in Cincinnati, he was dealt to Minnesota, where he's been nothing but spectacular. This past season, Gray finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting after posting a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings.
Why Sonny Gray Fits
Evident in his past performance are a few critical characteristics that the Cardinals were clearly enamored with. Gray has exhibited remarkable consistency. He's posted just two seasons with an ERA+ below 100. In each of those years, Gray struggled with injuries and that means he's only been a below-league-average pitcher twice during his 11-year career.
Across his other nine seasons, he's never finished below 112. In each of his other 8 seasons, he's finished with an ERA+ over 120. Sonny Gray is much more unlikely than an average pitcher to have a down season. In other words, his floor is incredibly high. In fact, it's about 25% above league average.
Let's compare Gray to another player many fans are eyeing. Dylan Cease has had one incredible season. His 2022 season is better than any of Gray's 11 seasons. And Cease did that at just 26. He seemed like a surefire ace for 2023. Then he had a down year, posting an ERA of 4.58 and an ERA+ of 97. That would be the worst full season of Sonny Gray's career. Blake Snell profiles similarly. He's been incredible twice, capturing two Cy Young Awards. In his other six seasons, Snell has only topped a 112 ERA+ once, and that was the shortened 2020 season! Gray provides a unique level of certainty in a volatile league.
But let's not pretend that Gray is merely a solid pitcher. He remains an elite talent. Far too often, I've seen fans on Twitter complaining that he's not a frontline starter. That's simply untrue. Gray is the best pitcher to wear the birds on the bat since 2019 Jack Flaherty. And that season, Gray was every bit as good as Flaherty. Gray led all of baseball with a 2.83 FIP. That's an elite mark, no matter how you slice it. And he doesn't strike out as many guys as Dylan Cease or Blake Snell, but he's every bit as capable of turning in top-notch performances. Just check out this start against Houston.
Sonny Gray was downright filthy, setting a new career high with 13 Ks. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/qe23fN0jHJ
— MLB (@MLB) April 7, 2023
Almost nobody is better at preventing home runs than Gray, and he excelled in that department in 2023. But, that's not a recent development. Gray rarely allows more than one home run per nine innings pitched, a strong mark. Remember, he was doing this at Great American Ballpark, sometimes affectionately referred to as Great American Smallpark.
All jokes aside, that's an incredibly hitter-friendly park. Yankee Stadium and Target Field, the homes of the Yankees and Twins, respectively, also fit into that category. Each of them ranks significantly higher than Busch Stadium in home run park factor, according to Statcast. Gray's ability to suppress home runs will be further amplified!
He's going to fit in well in St. Louis. He's excelled in small markets in the past and was intentional in describing how much he wanted to be in St. Louis. They've gone after him before. Gray also expressed a desire to be close to his family. He seems like an excellent fit from a cultural standpoint as well.
The Deal
Waking up to the news that a Sonny Gray deal was imminent was probably one of the most exciting things I've experienced in a while. I'd been hammering home the idea that the Cardinals needed to sign him for months on the Noot News Podcast.
I wanted Gray because of his excellent track record and the desperate need the Cardinals had (and still have) for starting pitching. But I wanted to see Sonny Gray in a Cardinal uniform because I'm a fan! I love watching him pitch. He's one of the only players I've been able to root for while playing in Cincinnati! I've followed his career with great interest and I'm a fan of his.
To hear he'd actually signed the deal was incredible! I joined Josh Jacobs on an emergency episode of the Noot News Podcast to discuss the signing, and I love everything about it.
The Cardinals are better than they were before! Sonny Gray is a bargain at the current price point (25MM). His deal is structured specifically to help the team compete in 2024! And I get to watch Sonny Gray take the mound in Busch Stadium. But unlike the times I saw him between 2019 and 2021, this time he'll be in a Cardinals jersey. And I won't have to enjoy his performance in silence. So get excited! Sonny Gray is a Cardinal!
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