Who should stay and who should be removed from the Cardinals' rotation after deadline

The Cardinals' rotation has been a bright spot this season. That's especially encouraging after the way the unit struggled last year. Adam Wainwright fell apart, Miles Mikolas regressed significantly, and young starters proved they weren't ready to step up. Over the offseason, the front office did little to assuage concerned fans. While Sonny Gray represented a massive upgrade, many harbored doubts about the two additional acquisitions: Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.

Fast forward several months, and the Cardinals have a winning record. Their offense, as many have noted, has held the pitching staff back. Gray has pitched like an All-Star. Mikolas has rebounded after a tough start. Gibson has been one of MLB's most pleasant surprises. Even Lynn has pitched serviceably. In place of the injured Steven Matz, Andre Pallante has performed well. Even Matthew Liberatore has made a few solid spot starts.

The team's strong performance over the past two months has justified investment at the deadline. The Cardinals will upgrade their rotation, though to what degree remains undetermined. When they do, they will have no choice but to relieve at least one current starter from rotational duties. In this article, we'll discuss their options. Who deserves to stay? Who doesn't? What happens to displaced pitchers?

There are a handful of pitchers we won't even need to discuss here. Sonny Gray is the ace, and he won't be relieved of his duties. It's highly unlikely the Cardinals acquire another pitcher of his caliber, though doing so would certainly strengthen the roster for a stretch run. Kyle Gibson has pitched phenomenally. Assuming he doesn't implode over the next few weeks, he will remain comfortably within the rotation. However, names like Andre Pallante, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Matthew Liberatore are worth discussing.

Lance Lynn

Lynn is the likeliest of the Opening Day starters to be removed from the rotation. Things were going okay before his implosion on July 6th. Across six starts in June, Lynn pitched to a 3.86 ERA and kept the Cards in each of those games, leading the team to a 5-1 record. But, it's worth mentioning that Lynn wasn't giving the Cardinals what they needed most: innings. He covered a measly 30.1 innings in June, averaging just over five per start. In 3 of those games, he failed to pitch through the fifth. Lynn's inefficiency has contributed to the stress placed on the Cardinals' bullpen.

Then came July 6th. Lynn surrendered four runs in the first, five in the second, and two more in the third before being lifted for Matthew Liberatore. By the time it was over, Lynn had given up 11 runs in just 2.2 innings. None of his stuff was working, and the game against the Nationals was over before it really began. Lynn's ERA jumped from a respectable 3.59 to 4.48. He also allowed three home runs, a low point for him on the season. Now, there's real doubt about his future with the Cardinals.

It may surprise many, but Lynn has struggled to eat innings all year. In 18 starts, he has pitched six or more innings just five times. The Cardinals need more from him. Unfortunately, it's difficult to project more. Lynn walks a lot of hitters, strikes a lot of hitters out, and frequently finds himself in deep counts. He doesn't get the quick outs that guys like Mikolas and Gibson rack up. But, his strikeout stuff does allow him to escape jams more often.

Regardless, the results dictate that Lynn is likelier to leave than Mikolas or Gibson. He may carry some value as a reliever. Again, he records more strikeouts than Mikolas and Gibson. But, he just doesn't feel like a reliever. He's 37 years old, he doesn't throw a slider, and he hasn't really pitched in relief since 2011.

Perhaps Lynn carries some trade value. Before his implosion, his season numbers actually looked pretty good. Even now, a 4.48 ERA isn't awful. There may be some team willing to take a look at Lynn, especially if they're dealing with injuries of their own. He won't bring back any notable prospects, but maybe the Cardinals could shed some of his salary. If the Cardinals can't find a taker, it's possible that they just DFA him, though they'll probably be fairly resistant to that option. The Cardinals never like wasting value. Lynn is probably safe if they just go after one pitcher, but a second starter would jeopardize his role.

Verdict: Probably safe... for now

Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas has had a strange season. The team is 9-10 when he pitches, but in five of those losses, Mikolas has recorded a quality start. He gets basically zero run support at times. His best outing of the year came in Pittsburgh when he carried a no-hitter into the seventh. He surrendered a hit, got out of the inning, and watched the bullpen lose the game. The Miles Mikolas experience is just like that sometimes. This year, it's been a mixed bag. The highs have been high, but the lows have been really, really low. To be fair, it's been that way throughout his entire Cardinals career.

2024 is perhaps best described as a tale of two different Miles Mikolas-es. You see, over his first eight appearances, Mikolas was nearly unplayable. Many expressed concerns about his future. Fans lampooned the extension he and the club agreed to last spring and wondered how they could possibly escape his terrible performance. Mikolas surrendered an astonishing 30 runs in his first 42 innings of work, good for a 6.43 ERA. He allowed eight homers. His shenanigans were a big part of the Cardinals' early scuffles, as the team went just 2-6 in his starts.

Then, he pitched quite well on Mother's Day (May 12). Mikolas gave the team six strong innings of two-run ball, and they beat Milwaukee for the first time in seven contests. They also ended a seven-game skid and avoided a four-game sweep at the hands of their division rivals. Perhaps Mikolas acted as a sort of catalyst for the team. Since that game, the Cardinals own the NL's best record at 33-20. They thrust themselves into the Wild Card race and are now players in the divisional battle.

Mikolas has been effective over this stretch. In 11 starts, he's averaging six innings per start with a 3.88 ERA. He has recorded 8 quality starts. Aside from a blowup start against Cincinnati, he's been nearly flawless. The team is 7-4 in his starts, but he's given them a legitimate chance to win at least 10 of them. Mikolas has only taken two losses himself over this timeframe. If you remove that blowup start, Mikolas sports a 2.82 ERA since May 12.

So, Miles Mikolas isn't going anywhere. He's been one of the game's most reliable pitchers over the past two months, and it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Cardinals disrupt that. He's done everything they have asked. He has locked down a spot in this rotation.

Verdict: Miles ain't going anywhere

Matthew Liberatore

Liberatore has had a frustrating career to this point. To get him, the Cardinals parted with Randy Arozarena, and when he became a star in Tampa, many gave up on Liberatore before he ever had a chance. The tools are there though. Liberatore throws a nasty curveball and can reach 98 from the left side. When his stuff is sharp and he maintains his velocity, he can be dominant. He pitched eight spectacular innings last season in Tampa. He recaptured that stuff against Atlanta on June 26th, firing six scoreless innings and striking out eight. He looked utterly dominant.

That comes after he got a chance to start early in the season. In his three outings, he never made it through four. Each time, his velocity dropped and he surrendered multiple runs before being lifted. On the bright side, it appears that "Libby" has significant value as a left-handed reliever. While he's put up a 5.03 ERA as a starter, that mark drops to 3.77 when pitching in relief. Opponents have recorded an OPS of .824 against "starter Liberatore." When relieving, he's held opponents to a .645 OPS. The differences are staggering. Liberatore will remain in the bullpen, though he may continue to make spot starts. He'll probably get another opportunity to start next year, but for the time being, the Cardinals need to use him where he's most effective.

Verdict: Spot starts, and that's it

Steven Matz

Steven Matz is probably the weirdest name on this list. He's under contract for another year. He's gotten countless opportunities. At times, the results have been great. At times they've been terrible, as they were earlier this year. Most often though, Matz has been unavailable. In his third year, Matz has again spent a large portion of the season on the shelf. He's out for at least another month. For the Cardinals to count on him moving forward would be ludicrous. He has shown zero ability to stay on the field. They should not be banking on him suddenly getting healthy. If Matz returns, he should be used primarily in relief. Maybe they'll let him make a spot start or two, but penciling him into the rotation is just stupid at this point.

He'll get another chance in 2025 as the Cardinals will again be pitching needy. However, until then, Matz doesn't deserve a chance to start. There are other more intriguing and healthier options, including Andre Pallante, Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, and even Michael McGreevy. By next year, that list may include Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe, and Tekoah Roby. Matz has not locked down a spot in this rotation.

Verdict: Nope