Who's next? Cardinals' likeliest trade candidates for another offseason deal

The St. Louis Cardinals made their first trade of the season, sending Tyler O'Neill to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for reliever Nick Robertson and prospect Victor Santos. The Cardinals have been the most active team in baseball so far this winter, and there's a good chance they continue to be between now and Spring Training.

If the Cardinals want to make more trades, they certainly can. They have more pieces on their Major League roster than could be most around for starting pitching, bullpen help, or even strengthen the farm system further. Speaking of the farm system, they have interesting prospects that could move the needle for them in a significant trade as well.

The Cardinals will be looking at add at least one more arm to their bullpen this offseason, and remain connected to some of the best starting pitching talent on the trade market, namely Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow.

O'Neill was always going to be one of the pieces that they moved on from this winter, John Mozeliak even publicly confirmed their intention. Now the question is - who else could be moved as well?

All of that is circumstantial. Almost any player in the organization could be moved this offseason depending on the deal. But the question I want to dive into here is who are the likeliest names to move in a deal this offseason if the Cardinals swing another trade at some point?

I went ahead and put together the five likeliest pieces to be moved based on the Cardinals current needs, who they have been linked to, and what players make the most sense to move on from if they go the trade route. I wouldn't be surprised if any or all of these players are on the Cardinals roster in 2024, but I think it's safe to say they are the most likely to move of the bunch.

To start this list, the least likely of the top five happens to be the most valuable on the list as well.

#4 - Steven Matz

After the Sonny Gray signing, rumors began to peculate that Steven Matz could be traded by the Cardinals this offseason. I see the potential path for the Cardinals moving on from Matz, but I would not say it's likely either.

Even with the injury history Matz has had during his Cardinal tenure, he's still a valuable rotation piece, and there's an arguement that he's the second most talented starting pitcher on their roster. He should slot into their Opening Day rotation right now, but if the Cardinals are able to pull off a trade for another starter, they could explore moving Matz.

Matz is set to make $12.5 million for each of the next two seasons. That's really fair value considering the state of the free agent market, so there's no reason to move Matz unless the Cardinals bring in more pitching to replace him. Matz will have trade value throughout the league with pitching always being in need, so the Cardinals should have no problem finding a suitor if they decide to move him.

One scenario that I think would move Matz up my list is if the Cardinals trade for Glasnow and his $25 million salary. The Cardinals have the salary flexibility to add Glasnow without trading Matz, but I would imagine they'd want to add some bullpen pieces, so moving Matz could help them do so. If the Cardinals trade for Dylan Cease or another cost-controlled pitcher, they still could move Matz, but their low salaries wouldn't make it essential for the Cardinals to do so.

Matz should be viewed as a rotation arm for the Cardinals, but the fact that he can also slide into the bullpen and provide value there makes him an interesting arm to hold onto for 2024. But with the need to raise the ceiling of this rotation, if the opportunity to add a better starter is there, they should be open to moving Matz if that is a necessary repercussion.

#3 - Dylan Carlson

I still think it's more likely that Dylan Carlson will be traded than one of Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman and Steven Matz, but with the trade of Tyler O'Neill and how the Cardinals are talking about Carlson lately, I think it's much less likely they move him now than it seemed at the beginning of the offseason.

The Cardinals starting outfield to begin 2024 will be comprised of Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, and Jordan Walker. Carlson, along with Richie Palacios and Alec Burleson, can factor into the rotation from a reserve role, but the Cardinals have already declared their intention for Carlson to be the fourth outfielder, which is the right decision.

Heading into spring training, the Cardinals are hoping that Masyn Winn runs away with the starting shortstop job, but they are also preparing for a world where they need him to spend more time in Triple-A as well. If that were to happen, Edman would have to slide back in at shortstop, and that would leave a hole in the outfield that Carlson could be the answer for. I'm a huge Victor Scott II guy and hope he's with the big league club soon, but it's very likely he begins the year in Triple-A, barring an incredible spring training.

Outside of Edman, the only other players who can play center field on their roster right now are Nootbaar and Palacios. The Cardinals view Nootbaar as a corner outfielder and I do not think they want to make him cover center field again, and as much as I like Palacios, having them be one injury away from him as their everyday center fielder is a bit too risky for my liking.

Carlson has been disappointing the last few years, but let's not forget that he was third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2021 and played well for significant stretches of 2022. The Cardinals do not need to get rid of him, so unless he's part of a deal to get a significant starting pitcher, I believe they are going to hold onto him for at least the first half of the season.

The top two names on this list I think are the players truly at risk of being dealt between now and spring training.

#2 - Prospects

I know, I know, this is cheating a bit. But instead of making a list of 15 different prospects who could be moved this offseason, I decided to lump them all together as the second most likely player(s) to be moved.

If the Cardinals want to swing a major deal for a starting pitcher, it would seem more likely than not that they'd want that package to center around their prospect capital, rather than trading their best young big leaguers. Even if they have to make a move that involves one of Gorman or Donovan, a prospect or two will likely be added to that deal to make it happen.

The level of prospects that could be dealt this offseason is a wide range as well. We could see top prospects like Tink Hence, Thomas Saggese, or Tekoah Roby on the move to acquire a top starter. The Cardinals would move on from pieces like Moises Gomez and Luken Baker who do not seem to have a role with the club long-term. There are so many different names who could be dealt and it all depends on if the Cardinals want to make another trade and what kind of move it is.

An interesting group to keep an eye on is the group of starting pitchers who are on the fringes of the big league roster or in Triple-A at the moment. That list is extensive and includes Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Drew Rom, Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, Sem Robberse, and Michael McGreevy. Having depth is something the Cardinals haven't had in the last few years, so they do not need to move these guys, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see one or two on the move.

If the Cardinals do not move prospects this offseason, I think it's very likely they do so at the trade deadline to improve this roster further. As things currently stand, this roster should be able to be in the Wild Card race and potentially win the NL Central depending on the moves other clubs make, but to become a true contender, they'll need to tap into that prospect capital to pull it off.

#1 - Alec Burleson

I don't think any name on this list will for sure be moved like Tyler O'Neill was destined to be, but I do think Alec Burleson may find himself in that weird in-between role that other Cardinals' prospects have been stuck in during recent years, and so the club could get more value from him in a trade than having him as a reserve player.

A former top 100 prospect, Burleson played his first full big league season in 2023, hitting .244/.300/.390 with 8 HR, 89 wRC+, and -0.9 WAR in 107 games for the Cardinals. Burleson sometimes found himself as a prominent part of the Cardinals' lineup, and other times was just a bat they used off the bench.

The Cardinals really believe in Burleson's talent, and Marmol wasn't shy about giving him praise for his approach and how he was swinging the bat, oftentimes citing his lack of opportunities and bad luck for the lack of results for Burleson.

Fans got sick of hearing that narrative from the Cardinals during the year, but the underlying numbers backed up what the Cardinals were seeing.

If you go to Burleson's Baseball Savant page, you'll see that the majority of the expected numbers showed Burleson was much better than his production showed. He was in the 91st and 95th percentile in Whiff% and K%, and his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG were all much higher than the traditional stats showed.

Here's the problem though, the Cardinals already envision playing time being difficult to come by for Burleson next year.

Again, I think there is zero reason to move Burleson just to move him. The talent is there and there will be at-bats for him as the season goes on, but it's difficult to imagine him having a significant role beyond filling in at first base and the occasional starts at DH or the corner outfield. But even then, I'm not sure I see DH or the corner outfield having significant playing time available for him.

Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker should be playing pretty much every day, barring injury. When they sit, Dylan Carlson is the fourth outfielder and the far superior defender compared to Burleson, so yes he'll have chances there, but I don't think they will be frequent. As far as DH goes, one of Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan will play there most days, and when they aren't, it's likely because one of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, or Willson Contreras is.

Burleson is a piece that could be used to help them nab a starting pitcher, and I see the argument for him to be included in a deal and allow the Cardinals bench to be formed by Dylan Carlson, Ivan Herrera, Richie Palacios, and Luken Baker to start the year. Thomas Saggese and Victor Scott II will likely be significant factors in the near future, so playing time may get even more complicated for Burleson later in 2024.