Which Cardinals are at risk of losing their roster spots when injured players return?

The St. Louis Cardinals have been navigating the injury bug as of late. While the club has been able to fight its way back to being around .500, internally, there is belief within themselves that as they get their major contributors back, the club can begin to go on another run and get themselves comfortably above .500 for the first time since 2022.

As things currently stand, the Cardinals are missing the following key contributors from their everyday roster due to injury:

C Willson Contreras
C Ivan Herrera
OF Lars Nootbaar
OF Tommy Edman
RP Riley O'Brien
SP Steven Matz

That's almost 25% of their best 26-man group that is currently on the injured list or working their way back on a rehab assignment, and in the cases of Contreras, Nootbaar, and Edman, they are legit everyday players that they can hardly replace when they are out. That's not even to mention not having OF Jordan Walker around either, who's currently with their Memphis affiliate working on his swing.

Luckily for the Cardinals, most of those names appear to be on their way back to St. Louis, sooner rather than later. I want to go in order player by player based on the expected timeframe they are supposed to return by and look at which players that are currently on the Cardinals' Major League roster are most at risk of being optioned once each player returns. Due to positional fit and role on the team, the return of certain players has a great impact on different players currently on their roster.

Jose Fermin and Nick Raposo are at risk of being optioned when Willson Contreras returns

Willson Contreras was one of the best hitters in all of baseball when he landed on the injured list in early May with a broken forearm.

Through his first 128 at-bats this season, Contreras slashed .280/.398/.551 with 6 HR while posting a 169 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR. Contreras had also made major strides behind the plate, ranking well above average in blocking, framing, and caught stealing. Contreras was easily the Cardinals' best player and will likely step back into that role soon after he returns to St. Louis.

While Contreras' recovery from injury has been nothing short of remarkable, I would still imagine that the Cardinals will be cautious at the beginning of his return when it comes to his catching duties. The club trusts Pedro Pages' ability behind the plate, and with the major need the Cardinals have for offensive production right now, I could see the Cardinals easing Contreras back into his catching duties while having him DH more often.

If they choose to do that, I actually think Fermin is the most likely candidate to be optioned as the Cardinals seem hesitant to run two catchers in their lineup without one off of the bench. It's kind of odd to me as St. Louis could easily trade in their DH if they had an injury or wanted to pinch hit for Pages late in a game, but they have not really shown the willingness to do that so far.

If they become open to that possibility or don't DH Contreras much, then Raposo becomes the easy candidate to lose his roster spot after being called up on Saturday morning to replace Herrera.

When Lars Nootbaar returns, Pedro Pages is the only player who should expect to lose his roster spot

I promise there will be other names at risk of losing their roster spot after this, but in all honesty, the return of Contreras, Herrera, and Nootbaar, all seem to impact the same three roster spots, and it's the return of Tommy Edman that could really shake things up.

According to MLB.com's John Denton, Nootbaar is still a step away from progressing to live batting practice, and once he's able to get through that, he could see a rehab assignment to follow.

Nootbaar is dealing with an oblique injury that has kept him out since late May, and considering the myriad of injuries that he has dealt with over the past few seasons, I don't think the Cardinals' will change their turn with Nootbaar's center field usage. Because of this, Nootbaar should be treated as a corner outfielder only when it comes to roster construction, limiting how the Cardinals can structure their roster upon his return.

Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson are obviously safe when it comes to playing time and their roster spot. The Cardinals' other two outfielders, Michael Siani and Dylan Carlson, are the only two players on the roster currently who can play center field. So neither of them is going to be at risk of being sent down either.

Now we get to the back end of the roster, and there are just three spots remaining who could lose their spot - Pages, Matt Carpenter, and Brandon Crawford. We know how the Cardinals feel about the latter two being on their roster, so, Pages it is.

Sure, another injury could happen between now and when Nootbaar returns that changes this, but assuming Contreras and Herrera return before Nootbaar does, it's a given that Pages will be the one to lose his roster spot, Herrera will return to being the primary backup catcher with less frequent DH opportunities, and the Cardinals lineup will be close to full strength.

Now, the next player on this list has been out the whole season so far, and when he returns to the roster, we are going to see how the Cardinals truly feel about a former top prospect of theirs.

Michael Siani and Dylan Carlson are at risk of losing their roster spot when Tommy Edman returns

The return of Tommy Edman will make a larger impact on this team than I think most fans realize. Not only did Edman show us during the second half of the 2023 season that he can be one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball, but his bat is also head and shoulders better than what both Michael Siani and Dylan Carlson have provided for the club this season.

Edman is a career 99 wRC+ guy, so basically a league-average hitter, while projections had him being slightly above league average this year, A league-average bat doesn't sound like a massive upgrade by any means, but when you consider who he'd be replacing, it's easy to see how improved this Cardinal lineup would be.

Siani, while playing excellent defense in center field and providing timely bunts and sacrifice hits at the bottom of the lineup, is still slashing .209/.253/.284 (.537 OPS) which is good for a 55 wRC+ on the season. Well, what about Dylan Carlson? Somehow, he's been even worse than Siani so far, posting a .165/.253/.190 slash line (.443 OPS) which gives him a 35 wRC+ on the season.

Basically, instead of getting league-average production offensively from center field this year, the Cardinals have been running out two players who range from 45%-65% below league average offensively, with Victor Scott II providing even less production from center field during his brief stint to begin the season.

Are the Cardinals getting a big bat back when Edman returns? No, but they are upgrading from some of the worst production in the league at any position and with someone who is substantially better. Not only that, we've all grown accustomed to Edman's ability to come up big in clutch moments, something this lineup desperately needs.

Seeing how the Cardinals address this roster spot will speak volumes about how they view their outfield mix going forward. In a vacuum, Siani has been the more valuable player for the Cardinals this year. He plays elite defense in center field, can do damage on the basepaths, knows how to lay down a bunt better than almost anyone, and has even been a better hitter than Carlson this year.

But we all know the prospect pedigree Carlson had, and as bad as things have been this year for Carlson, the ceiling with him is higher than Siani. And yet, it feels like the best decision for this team would be to send Carlson to Memphis or prepare to trade him, rather than give up Siani's spot on the roster.

When Riley O'Brien returns, Giovanny Gallegos and Kyle Leahy are at risk of losing their roster spot

For as awesome as the Cardinals' bullpen has been this season, it has also been subject to a number of injuries and setbacks related to those. Giovanny Gallegos just made his return from the injured list while Keynan Middleton has been ruled out for the season. Along with Middleton, the Cardinals also brought right-handed arms in Riley O'Brien and Nick Robertson this offseason, both of whom have been on the injured list for a while.

O'Brien made just one appearance during the Dodgers series to open the year before landing on the injured list, and while he has appeared to be close to a return a few weeks ago, O'Brien has been in a bit of a holding pattern since as he awaits next steps after some issues following his last bullpen.

While, at the moment, it appears there are no structural issues with O'Brien's arm, it's safe to assume his return will be delayed even more, and we likely won't see O'Brien until at least mid-late July (again, purely a guess on my end at this point).

Once O'Brien is able to return though, the Cardinals should be in a spot where they can decide if they want to keep rolling with Giovanny Gallegos after his return, or if it's time to cut ties with him and go to their younger options like Kyle Leahy or whatever young reliever they have in his spot.

Gallegos has a rough start to his 2024 season, posting a 12.00 ERA in 9 innings of work. His velocity was way down and his feel for his slider appeared to be a major issue, and even upon a lengthy rehab assignment over the past few weeks, Gallegos has not found much success against minor-league opponents. In 2.1 inning with the Springfield Cardinals, Gallegos posted an 11.57 ERA and lowly 15.4 K%, while things were just as bad in Memphis with an 11.25 ERA and 16.7 K%.

Now, that does not mean Gallegos is for sure cooked as a reliever, and we also don't know how much of his rehab assignment was about him getting a feel for things and trying things out vs. going out and getting outs. I am very worried about Gallegos though, and there's a good chance he's designated for an assignment even before O'Brien returns.

Whatever reliever is lowest on the totem pole for the Cardinals upon O'Brien's return will likely get the book here. O'Brien could be optioned to Memphis himself, but I think the Cardinals are way too intrigued by O'Brien's stuff not to have him on the roster, so unless the 7th and 8th guys in the bullpen are pitching out of their minds when O'Brien returns, my guess is we see him join the mix.

Andre Pallante and the Cardinals' lowest leverage reliever are the most likely candidates to lose his roster spot when Steven Matz returns

The Cardinals recently received poor news on the status of Steven Matz. While he's been excellent in his rehab appearances thus far, Matz woke up with tightness after his most recent outing, and now his timeline has been basically reset.

4-6 weeks until Matz's return puts him on track to be back right before or just after the MLB Trade Deadline (insert joke about Matz returning being just as good as a trade here). The problem at this point though is that the Cardinals cannot just bank on Matz being healthy for them by the time the deadline rolls around, and even if he's back, there's no telling how good he'll be and if he can remain healthy.

So, when Matz returns, he'll likely be returning to a roster that has either already added a starting pitcher or two to their roster, or is planning on doing so. Depending on the health of the other Cardinals starters, that means Matz could be on a fast track toward a return to the bullpen and being the "next man up" if the Cardinals have an injury to their rotation.

Andre Pallante is the obvious candidate to lose his roster spot, but if the Cardinals add another starter and their other four options are healthy, then Matz would likely replace whatever reliever the Cardinals have the least trust in at that moment. Matz can be used in a variety of ways for them out of the bullpen, providing multiple innings if needed, coming in as a lefty specialist, and being ready to start a game whenever he is needed.

I'm not discounting the chance that Matz is a really helpful starter down the stretch for St. Louis, but at this point, the Cardinals need to hedge their bets and count anything that Matz gives them as icing on the cake. Relying on him to come back and be the answer for them would be a major mistake.

Bonus: If the Cardinals bring back Jordan Walker this season, we may see the end of Matt Carpenter or Brandon Crawford's time on the roster

Jordan Walker is not injured, but if the Cardinals do decide to tap back into him at some point this year, it makes roster construction very interesting and creates a really weird situation for their lineup.

First, let's talk about Walker, who in his 170 at-bats for Memphis this year is posting a .271/.324/.412 slash line with 3 home runs and 15 RBI. While he seems to be tapping into that power stroke more as of late, the Cardinals are going to continue to be patient with him to make sure when they call him up this next time, they never have to look back.

There's a real chance Walker won't come back to St. Louis in 2024, but if I had to bet, we will see him at some point before the season is over. Walker is just so talented as a player and I believe he'll continue to figure things out, but again, there is no need to rush that.

Should Walker get the call-up AND the roster is healthy, I believe we'd actually see a move with one of Matt Carpenter or Brandon Crawford, with the former being the more likely candidate in my opinion.

One thing that could change that is if the Cardinals become more comfortable with Nootbaar playing center field, and then we could see whichever of Carlson or Siani is still on the roster sent down to make space for Walker. But if they do not change their stance on that, then it has to be one of Carpenter or Crawford.

As much of a club legend Carpenter is, his spot makes the most sense of the two to replace, as Alec Burleson really plays the role that Carpenter would want to fill, while there really is not a backup shortstop option for St. Louis other than Crawford. The Cardinals could DFA Crawford instead, but they would have to be okay with Edman playing some shortstop then.

If Walker returns, it will be as a mostly everyday guy, and when the Cardinals lineup is fully healthy, I'd expect it to look something like this:

SS Masyn Winn
DH Brendan Donovan
C Willson Contreras
LF Lars Nootbaar
1B Paul Goldschmidt/Alec Burleson
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
RF Jordan Walker
CF Tommy Edman

Bench: Burleson/Goldschmidt, Crawford, Siani, and Herrera

Obviously that lineup could be mixed and matched in a number of ways depending on how players are hitting but it would obviously be a massive improvement over what they have been getting most of this season, which is a big reason why optimism remains high internally regarding the Cardinals' offense.