What was the plan for the 2024 starting rotation?

Who was supposed to rise in the system?

The first question that needs to be answered when solving this riddle is "Who?'. As of 2019, Jack Flaherty was only 23 years old, he was in his third professional season, and finished the season 4th in National League Cy Young voting. Flaherty was the presumptive and hopeful ace of the future.

Behind him, Michael Wacha was a stalwart in the back of the rotation, Miles MIkolas was the veteran free agent with a fresh extension on the way, Adam Wainwright was the wily veteran, and Dakota Hudson, a recent top-5 organizational prospect, was on the rise.

These 5 pitchers were supposed to lead the team in 2019 and 2020, and they did a fine job of it. Mozeliak must have figured that Jack Flaherty would continue to soar, Dakota Hudson would be serviceable, and Mikolas and Wainwright would age on typical curves.

Behind young pitchers like Flaherty and Hudson, the Cardinals would trade for a former first-round pick in Matthew Liberatore from the Tampa Bay Rays in January of 2020 to bolster their pitching farm system, their own first-round pick from 2019, Zack Thompson, was getting more seasoning in his sophomore season in the minors. Players such as Genesis Cabrera, Junior Fernandez, Johan Oviedo, and Angel Rondon provided high-upside depth in the minors, though some of these prospects were likely going to be forced into the bullpen.

As of 2020, the 2023 rotation would be led by Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas with Adam Wainwright closing out his career and at least one of the aforementioned pitchers taking significant steps to improve. Thompson and Liberatore would be 25 and 23, respectively, and hopefully prepared to take on a role in the back of the rotation.

When the 2021 rotation didn't pan out as well as initially expected (21st in starting pitcher bWAR), John Mozeliak once again had to reevaluate his future plans. Randy Flores had just gifted Mo Tink Hence, but he was years away from being ready. Essentially, the plan was to let Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore continue to develop while filling in the rotation in other ways. That came in signing Kwang-Hyun Kim and letting a faltering Carlos Martinez trot out every 5 days.

By the end of 2021, Jack Flaherty's once-promising allure had faded, Adam Wainwright wasn't his old self anymore, and Mikolas's spectacular return was hampered due to injuries. John Gant pitched the fifth-most innings that year. The plan was starting to crumble. Dakota Hudson, while he was still fine in the back of the rotation, wasn't what the team needed him to be either in 2019 or 2020.

Fast forward to 2023 and 2024, and we are still waiting for Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson to show improvement. Players such as Johan Oviedo, Zac Gallen, and Sandy Alcantara were traded away, although their Cy Young abilities were never predicted in the first place.

Why did the plan fail?

Now that we've established the "who", we must answer the "why". Fans will never fully know the ins and outs of player development in any organization. While assumptions can be gleaned out of quotes from reporters, management, and players, we will never be able to know the ins and outs of player development and the minor league system.

One explanation for the failure of prospects to rise in time can be attributed to the lost minor league season in 2020 and the abbreviated 2021 minor league season. Zack Thompson had only pitched in high-A Palm Beach before 2021, but he was thrust up to AAA Memphis that year. He hadn't pitched in true, competitive games in 2 years, but he was pushed to the highest level in the minors. His 7.06 ERA and 2-10 record that year is evidence of him not being ready.

Matthew Liberatore had only pitched in low-A in 2019, and he, too, was pushed to AAA Memphis in 2021. Libby experienced more success, a modest 4.04 ERA that year, but he was also negatively affected by the lost time in the minors. Given more complete ramp-ups in 2020 and 2021, and these two lefties could have been ready to contribute in the majors as early as 2022.

More recent pitching prospects such as Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy were hampered by overuse in college and below-average velocity in their professional careers. The next pair of high-octane starting pitching prospects of Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby have as much pressure on them as their predecessors.

The Cardinals aren't the only team to struggle with developing pitchers. The Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels drafted heavily on the pitching side of the game from 2018 until 2021, and very few of those picks have come to fruition. Teams like the Philadelphia Phillies (Andrew Painter) and Texas Rangers (Jack Leiter) placed big hopes on pitching prospects only for them to experience setbacks and injuries.

In regard to pitching development, something the organization can control, it appears as though the team is eons behind other organizations. Teams such as Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tampa Bay Rays consistently churn out league-average or better pitching prospects. What do they have that the Cardinals lack?

What these organizations share is a focus on spin rate and pure stuff. The Dodgers are known as "pitcher whisperers" due to their ability to mysteriously transform borderline pitchers into above-average studs. Movement is also a predominant focus in these organizations. Spin paired with wicked movement increases a pitch's ability to miss bats, something the best pitchers in the league have mastered.

Technology such as KinaTrax and pitching labs like Tread Athletics are notorious for transforming a pitcher's ability to throw. Adding pitches, changing arm angles, and even readjusting grips can help a pitcher improve. The Tampa Bay Rays were the first to use KinaTrax, and the Dodgers and Guardians have had players work with Driveline Baseball for nearly a dozen years.

The Cardinals were late to adapt Trackman, a technology that assists in tracking spin rates, velocity, and movement in pitches. Additionally, Cardinal players and prospects have only recently started working with Driveline and Tread.

Chaim Bloom's inclusion in the front office should help on the pitching development front. During his time in Tampa Bay, Bloom instituted a system that helped to develop the most 2+ WAR pitchers in baseball for a time. With Randy Flores's drafting expertise and Chaim Bloom's development acumen, the Cardinals could form a potent pitching pipeline in short order.