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What to expect out of Cardinals' Lance Lynn in 2024
Lance Lynn was the first of three starters signed by the Cardinals this winter. But what can fans expect from the last remaining holdover from the 2011 World Series team?
The Cardinals have added three starting pitchers, but their offseason work is far from finished.
The first of three additions to the rotation was a familiar face in Lance Lynn. Lynn made his Major League debut in 2011 with the Cardinals and played a key role in the team's run to their 11th World Series title as a member of the bullpen.
He then transitioned to being a starter and was with the team through the 2017 season. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal on Monday of last week to return to St. Louis.
During his time with the White Sox, Lynn was a pretty durable pitcher, earning an All-Star nod and also helping guide the team to the postseason in 2021. Last season was a different story. In 32 starts with the White Sox and Dodgers, he won 13 games but posted a 5.73 ERA.
And so, this has led Cardinals fans to worry a little bit about the team's new addition. Was 2023 an outlier, or was it the start of a trend? Can he get back to being the pitcher he was in 2021 and 2022 with the White Sox? Might he be on the decline?
There are a lot of unknowns. The signing comes with a bit of a risk, but also is a helpful signing, as Lynn is an innings eater and can be counted on to go deep in games.
In this piece we will discuss what to expect out of Lynn for 2024.
Positives of the Lynn signing
We've already mentioned one thing that Lynn can do for the Cardinals. He can eat innings.
Lynn is an absolute workhorse who pitched 183.2 innings this past season with the White Sox and Dodgers. He also is durable and can take the ball for you every fifth day. The 36-year-old right-hander made 32 starts in 2023.
When the Cardinals set out to add three starting pitchers, they made it very clear that they would be looking for pitchers who generate swings and misses as opposed to pitch-to-contact hurlers.
Lynn struck out 191 batters during the regular season and averaged 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. These are certainly encouraging signs.
In this day and age, the importance of pitchers who can miss bats consistently cannot be overstated. That typically plays well in the postseason as well. Lynn may not have the velocity that some pitchers have, but he does miss bats and can pile up the strikeouts. He even had a 16-strikeout performance against the Mariners before the All-Star break.
That is something the Cardinals can potentially look forward to in 2024. It's been a while since they've had durable workhorses in their rotation. Adam Wainwright wasn't able to be that guy in 2023 due to injuries. Lynn is just one of three innings eaters the Cardinals have already added to their new-look rotation.
The Cardinals were desperate for innings. Fortunately, they can now count on their starters to provide some of those much-needed innings.
The downside of the Lynn signing
As is the case with any pitcher, the Lynn signing comes with a few risks.
Firstly, he's 36 years old and will be turning 37 in May. Counting on a soon-to-be 37-year-old to give you a ton of innings, especially at this stage in his career, is asking a lot.
We also need to take into account that the veteran right-hander allowed 44 home runs during the regular season, which was the most in all of baseball. Pitching at Busch Stadium should help him cut down a bit on the home runs, as it has become more pitcher-friendly in recent years.
However, it is still a concern. That is ultimately what caused his ERA to skyrocket this season, which brings us to yet another concern. He posted an ERA of 5.73, and that doesn't inspire much confidence when it was the pitching that failed the Cardinals in 2023 as they endured their first 90-loss season since 1990.
They'll need him to bounce back to his 2022 form in order for this rotation to be able to help change their fortunes for 2024. The Cardinals are still hoping to bounce back into contention next year.
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