What is the worst-case scenario for the 2024 St. Louis Cardinals?

What could go wrong may actually go wrong in 2024 for the Cardinals. What's the worst that could happen?

Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals / Dilip Vishwanat/GettyImages
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Allow me to begin by stating that I am an optimist, occasionally to a fault. I don't enjoy looking at what could go wrong. However, sometimes it is prudent to look at a worst-case scenario just to be prepared. The 2023 St. Louis Cardinals achieved their worst-case scenario. Therefore, it would be wise to look at everything that could go wrong in 2024 to prepare ourselves for another potentially devastating season.

There is still some risk with next year's roster, but the foundation is much more sturdy. Pitchers such as Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn give the team assurance that wasn't present last year in Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, and Dakota Hudson did. The lineup maintains its depth, and the bullpen has some capable pitchers at the back end.

There are three categories that could provide for another dismal season in St. Louis: injuries, underperformance, and bad luck. I'll evaluate and isolate these three categories to provide a blueprint for failure in 2024. I am already cringing as I write this. I don't enjoy looking at the negative side of things. The best part about the offseason is fantasizing about the heights a team may reach next season.

Injuries

Last year's rotation was littered with question marks in the injury department; Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, and Adam Wainwright all couldn't be counted on for twenty-eight or more starts. They each had a lengthy injury history, thus dampening the potential of the starting rotation.

Injuries are not solely to blame for the team's record last year. Paul Goldschmidt and Miles Mikolas were able to play a full complement of games, and Tommy Edman was quite healthy. Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Giovanny Gallegos were all mostly healthy in 2023. That doesn't leave the team without injury concerns for next year, still. Nolan Gorman's back issue could become a bigger problem than it has been thus far. John Mozeliak has been adamant all offseason that there will be no limitations on any player as we enter Spring Training.

But what if Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan don't progress like they're expected to this offseason and instead miss the start of camp? That isn't likely, but it is possible. Without Edman, Dylan Carlson and Masyn Winn are thrust into more prominent roles. In fact, it's even entirely possible that Dylan Carlson continues his troubled past with injuries.

Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, and Brendan Donovan all have injury histories that are concerning, and they are four very important players for next year's team. If any one of them or a combination of multiple of them goes down with an injury in the long-term, it could be devastating to the team. Pitchers Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, Andrew Kittredge, and now Giovanny Gallegos all have shown a tendency to be injured.

Underperformance

If you were to choose one word to define the 2023 season for the Cardinals, underperformance may be that word, barely ahead of disappointing. Only Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, JoJo Romero, and Ryan Helsley surpassed their ZiPS projections for the year. Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras, and even Tommy Edman fell short of their projected WAR totals.

Projections this year are much tamer for the Cardinals and for good reason. However, plenty of players could continue to see regression next year. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are aging, the starting rotation has an average age above thirty-five, and other core players such as Willson Contreras and Giovanny Gallegos are on the wrong side of thirty.

There are plenty of talented young players on the roster, but young players such as Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, and Masyn Winn could all experience slumps at any point next year despite their track records or prospect statuses at one point.

Bad Luck

Luck is a challenging statistic to quantify in baseball. Who's to say that a home run in one ballpark would or wouldn't be a home run in another? A line drive could be hit 110 MPH off the bat and go right to an outfielder. Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is typically considered a luck stat especially when comparing a player's career BABIP to a particular season's BABIP. A good BABIP for a batter rests around .300.

The team's two best position players, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, both experienced bad luck when looking at just their BABIPs last year. Arenado's career BABIP is .292, but his BABIP in 2023 was .279. Paul Goldschmidt's career BABIP is .347, but he finished 2023 with a BABIP of .327.

Another luck statistic is HR/FB rate. This indicates the percentage of fly balls that a player hits that ended up being home runs. Typically, a HR/FB rate near 20% indicates a player who excels at hitting home runs and may be experiencing some luck. The Cardinals had just one player in the top 50 last year in this statistic: Paul Goldschmidt with a 15.4% HR/FB rate, 42nd in the league. Nolan Arenado (13.8%) and Lars Nootbaar (13.6%) cracked the top 100.

Every ballpark is different in its dimensions and its conditions. A home run in Great American Ballpark could easily be a double or a fly ball in Busch Stadium. Baseball Savant tracks home runs and calculates a player's home run total versus his expected home runs. Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado all rank in the top 50 in baseball in expected home runs. That's great, except for the fact that they hit more home runs than they were expected to last year. Only Paul Goldschmidt (-0.5 HR to expected home run ratio) fell short of his expectations.

Injuries, underperformance, and bad luck could hit the Cardinals at any point next year. Any one of those factors could derail a season in which the team is projected to win 85-90 games and contend for the division. Baseball has been good in St. Louis for a long time, and everyone affiliated with the team from John Mozeliak to a fan in Warrenton, Missouri experienced the miserable season that was 2023. It is just as likely that 2024 will go the same way, despite how much I don't want that to happen.

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