What each Cardinal pitcher has to prove during the final stretch

There's no easy way around it; the Cardinals have had a nightmarish season. On September 11, they sit at 63-80. They are on the verge of snapping their streak of winning seasons, and they may very well finish last in their division for the first time in roughly a century. The Cardinals were knocked out of the playoff race months ago, and the team's last hopes dried up in late July.

It's shocking, considering the impressive conglomeration of talent in St. Louis. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are making compelling cases for the Hall of Fame. Willson Contreras has been (and absolutely still is) an elite offensive catcher. Helsley and Gallegos are outstanding relievers, and the Cardinals have called up two blue-chip prospects in Walker and Winn. Both young players have the makings of stars. They have a glut of young outfielders, and Nolan Gorman has taken a huge step forward, emerging as one of the division's best power hitters. But, right now, it's just not working out. Nearly every player on the roster is battling for opportunities in 2024, and even those with secure spots have plenty to prove down the stretch.

Today, we'll discuss one thing each pitcher on the active roster (and some who aren't on the active roster at the moment) has to prove between now and the final game of the season.

Zack Thompson

Perhaps no pitcher has more to prove for 2024 than Zack Thompson. With a strong September, he can lock up a rotation spot. He can reassure the Cardinals that the internal pitching pipeline is again producing effective talent, and give them the confidence to pursue only two starters over the off-season. This may in turn allow the team to concentrate their resources on two players, giving them the chance to pursue top-of-the-market talent, on both the free agent and trade fronts. Thompson has certainly looked the part, especially recently.

But, if Thompson fails, the Cardinals will enter the off-season with just two names penciled in for 2024. There are technically other options, but Drew Rom and Dakota Hudson likely have lower ceilings than Thompson. The Cardinals, in this scenario, will likely feel pressured to spend on three arms, which could water down the talent they receive. Instead of targeting two legitimate top-of-the-rotation arms, they may instead target an ace, a mid-rotation arm, and a back-end starter. This is a completely different return, and it would be a significantly less exciting haul.

All concerns about the off-season aside, Thompson has proven that he can be a capable reliever before. He was the best left-handed piece in their successful 2022 bullpen. If he can't take this starter role and run with it, there is a chance the Cardinals decide to move him back, especially considering the fact that they traded Genesis Cabrera. Their other options include Packy Naughton, who will be coming off of a lost season, and JoJo Romero, who has looked great in 2023 but just hit the IL.

To earn a spot in the rotation, Thompson needs to look the way he looked on September 3rd against Pittsburgh, when he pitched through the seventh, allowing just three runs and walking zero batters. His peripherals are encouraging, as he's experienced a sharp increase in strikeout rate, though he's been fairly unlucky so far in 2023. The elevated strikeout rate is critical, and it raises his ceiling significantly. He's worth watching closely down the stretch! Every start counts for Thompson.

Drew Rom

Rom is the natural next step in this conversation. He's in a very similar position to Thompson, though their patterns of success within the Cardinals organization are inverted. After being acquired as part of the Jack Flaherty trade, Rom thrived with Memphis, earning a call-up after a series of excellent outings. It made sense for the Cardinals to promote him so quickly. But, in the bigs, he's struggled. He owns a 7.79 ERA, and his 6.72 FIP isn't much better. He's walking way too many hitters, and the strikeouts that came easily in Memphis are proving to be elusive in St. Louis. To put it succinctly, it hasn't looked good.

Thompson, on the other hand, looked terrible in Memphis. In nine starts with Memphis in 2023, he pitched abysmal, posting an ERA of 8.65. He wasn't much better before either. But, after being called up in 2022, Thompson was outstanding. In a bullpen role, he produced a 2.08 ERA in 34.2 innings. He ascended to the top of the bullpen pecking order quickly and seemed poised for another strong season in 2023. Then, the Cardinals decided he'd be converted back into a starter.

After the aforementioned disastrous run with Memphis, he was once again summoned to St. Louis. Steven Matz's injury thrust him back into a starting role, and he has inexplicably succeeded. In his last seven appearances, each of which has lasted four innings or more, Thompson has a 3.71 ERA and an even more encouraging 3.54 FIP.

I know this is supposed to be the Drew Rom section, but this comparison is worth discussing. What on earth could be contributing to this success? And why does it seem to come at the expense of Drew Rom's success? It's baffling! Regardless, Rom is poised to continue receiving opportunities. Steven Matz is unlikely to return, and even if he does, he'll almost surely return to the bullpen. Rom must make the best of his remaining starts.

Considering his youth, it's not a make-or-break stretch, but floundering in the season's final month could result in a drop on the depth chart. He's already fallen behind Thompson, but Alex Kloffenstein, Gordon Graceffo, and even Sem Robberse are now nipping at his heels. I've written about Rom a number of times, and I believe in his future success, but it is vital that he show improvement as the season draws to a close.

Matthew Liberatore

Liberatore is our third interesting young starter. He's been consistently praised throughout his minor league career and comes with much more pedigree than the other two. Liberatore throws multiple strong pitches, though he relies primarily on his elite curveball. He also touches 98 MPH on the gun. He does all of this from the left side. Liberatore is immensely talented and should continue to receive chances. Even with disappointing results across his first two seasons, Liberatore remains a tantalizing prospect.

Liberatore's career has suffered for two key reasons. Firstly, the results are somewhat dismal. Liberatore inexplicably doesn't generate strikeouts at even an average clip. His strikeout rate is actually down this season. While he's decreased his walk rate slightly, it's still higher than it ought to be. While he limits home runs, Liberatore struggles to limit line drive contact, and the hits stack up. Throw in a disappointing Cardinal defense and it's easy to see why he's had such a rough year.

The second factor has little to do with Liberatore himself. It has everything to do with Randy Arozarena. Following the 2019 season, the Cardinals traded Arozarena to Tampa Bay in exchange for Liberatore. At the time, it seemed like a fine move. The Cardinals had a glut of young outfielders and lacked exciting young pitching. Unfortunately, Arozarena powered the Rays to the 2020 World Series before capturing the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year award.

The success of Adolis Garcia in Texas merely compounded this issue. Liberatore found himself in the line of fire, and many Cardinal fans held nothing back. Frustration may have reached an all-time high in 2023, with the Cardinals underachieving across the board. No matter how he performs, he will be judged based on that deal. This is unfair, but it is unlikely to change.

Between now and October, Liberatore must prove that he belongs at the major league level. Even if he proves he's valuable to the bullpen, it is critical for him that he opens with the team in 2024. The best way to do that is to prove that they need you. He likely needs to continue having outings like he had against Cincinnati on September 9, when he made arguably the game's most important pitch, securing an inning-ending strikeout to escape a jam.

I believe that he needs to receive more starts, but the Cardinals clearly disagree, evidenced by Hudson's position in the rotation and Liberatore's new bullpen role. Hopefully, that changes in the near future, as Liberatore may have the highest ceiling of any pitcher discussed in this article. Earlier this season, Liberatore went eight scoreless in Tampa Bay. He could someday be an ace, but the Cardinals need to unlock that potential. For now, he has to prove he deserves more opportunities.

Andre Pallante

Pallante may be having one of the most disappointing (and by extension surprising) 2023 seasons of any Cardinal. As a rookie, Pallante was outstanding. He proved to be a reliable reliever with the potential to start. In 108 innings in 2022, Pallante registered an ERA of 3.17. He was quietly one of baseball's best rookies. In 2023, it's been an entirely different story. Pallante's ERA has ballooned and is now sitting near 5.50. He's still not generating strikeouts, but he's now walking more hitters while also allowing harder contact more often. While this is a natural recipe for disaster, it's still surprising to see such steep regression, considering the fact that his FIP is a very respectable 4.32. In the big moments though, Pallante isn't getting it done.

Pallante's performance, particularly of late, has been bad enough that many are now questioning whether he belongs on the major league roster. Some believe he should return to the minors for additional seasoning, while others are beginning to wonder if he has any future at all. Personally, I think these takes are overblown. Pallante was and still is a solid young pitcher, however, it has become clear that he's likely not going to put up a 3.17 ERA every season!

As the 2023 season comes to a close, Pallante must prove that he's capable of being a high-leverage reliever. The team has needed help at the back of the pen for the vast majority of the season. Heading into 2024, it is crucial that they can count on Pallante for a ton of effective innings. Perhaps with a strong finish and a good spring, Pallante can move back into the depth-starter conversation. For now, though, it's vital that he minimizes walks and finds success in high-leverage situations. He has to prove that he's capable of being part of a winning bullpen in 2024.

Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas is one of two names currently locked into the Cardinals' 2024 rotation. He's the more dependable of the two, as he almost never misses time with injury. He's been his usual durable self in 2023, though his performance has taken a step back. After reaching the All-Star Game in 2022, many expected Mikolas to have a similar season, but his ERA is up nearly a run and a half. This comes on the heels of an extension reached between Mikolas and the Cardinals in the first weeks of the season. Now, many are arguing that the Cardinals will regret handing Mikolas $40MM, split between the 2024 and 2025 seasons.

For better or for worse, he's now part of this rotation moving forward. He's likely to open as the third pitcher in this rotation, and Mikolas, with a return to form, has the makings of an excellent mid-rotation arm. Unfortunately, he has relatively few chances to begin that turnaround in 2023. He endured a tough outing on September 16 against the Phillies, allowing five earned runs. In ten starts since the All-Star Game, Mikolas has recorded an ERA north of 6.00. What seemed like a strong season has quickly soured.

Mikolas needs to string together several quality starts between now and the end of the season, even if he only has a few more opportunities. Doing so would provide confidence for both fans and executives before the off-season begins. It would also help to justify the extension he received earlier this season.

Steven Matz

Steven Matz started slowly in 2023. In fact, he started slowly enough to receive a demotion to the bullpen in May. That move seemed to push the right buttons, as Matz returned soon after and dominated for nearly two months. In that span, he was one of the NL's best pitchers, recording a 1.86 ERA. He paired that with strong peripheral stats, including a high strikeout rate.

On the season, Matz's stats look fantastic. Unfortunately, he's hurt yet again. With so few games left, Matz seems unlikely to take the field again in 2023. Even with his limited action, Matz was well worth the $11MM he's being paid. Pitchers capable of striking out that many hitters and keeping their ERA below 4.00 are very expensive these days. It's rare to see one sign for anything less than $80MM. Matz signed for just $44MM. He's truly a bargain, even if many fans believe he isn't.

Hopefully, Matz will be healthy for the entirety of the 2024 season. His presence is critical to the team's success. If he misses time again, they'll have no choice but to look for replacements in-house. Unfortunately, the upper levels of St. Louis' minor league system lack serious starting depth, meaning finding a proper replacement for Matz would be difficult. If Matz returns to the field, he just needs to demonstrate that he's healthy. Even if he gets knocked around a bit, seeing him make a start and exit without an injury would go a long way towards proving that he will be a reliable rotation piece for 2024 and beyond.

Adam Wainwright

The rest of the season is simple for Adam Wainwright. Keep chasing 200 wins. Each time he steps on the mound, he takes another swing at history. Unfortunately, history has eluded him for the past several months. Wainwright is cutting this down to the wire, what once seemed inevitable is beginning to seem unlikely. After beating Baltimore on September 12, he needs just one more win to reach this milestone, but he has just four on the season.

To make matters worse, he's receiving little to no run support. Even in his most recent win, the Cardinals scored just three runs while he was pitching. Since returning from the IL in August, he has had one win, but he's recorded three quality starts in that time. By my own very unofficial count, Uncle Charlie has pitched well enough to win in at least five ballgames in the second half, and each time he's been let down by an underwhelming offensive output.

This is truly one of the most difficult farewell seasons I've been around for, but it simply has to continue. This is the last thing Adam Wainwright will do as a Cardinal, and it is the only thing left to prove. He must prove it made sense to return, that he deserved the contract he signed, and that he's capable of grinding out this last win. I still believe that he'll get there, and I hope most Cardinal fans are right there with me, even now that it's becoming increasingly more difficult. Some believe "Waino" may be the final member of the 200-win club. Such an argument only magnifies the importance of this achievement. Come on Uncle Charlie!

Jacob Barnes and Casey Lawrence

I've grouped these two together because their outlooks are so similar. Neither of these pitchers is coming back next season. Neither should be a member of the 2023 Cardinals. Their very presence signifies what a lost season this is. That's not meant as some kind of personal attack, and I have nothing against either of these players. But they are here because the Cardinals' top options have all been injured or traded, and because the Cardinals needed to fill innings without spending any extra money or prospect capital. Thus, they sign two aging journeymen.

Casey Lawrence has actually been solid in his limited appearances, but that doesn't really matter. Neither of them will see high-leverage situations unless there are literally zero other options. I'm somewhat surprised both of them are actually still on the roster, as Ryan Tepera was, at least in my opinion, a more interesting arm. While Tepera has seen legitimate big-league success, neither of these players has.

Other more interesting arms have popped up too, like Reynaldo López and Brent Honeywell. The Cardinals decided not to give either a look, which probably says more about their 40-man roster conundrum than it does about anything else. They are likely keeping these two around to avoid backing themselves into a corner and suffering a roster crunch, where they'd have to cut valuable players. By holding onto players with essentially zero value, they can ensure that they'll have enough roster space to acquire plenty of help this off-season, via both trade and free agency.

If there's anything these guys need to prove at all, it's that they simply deserve the opportunity to keep pitching. They're not going to have a place in St. Louis next year, and it's difficult to imagine either getting a major league deal. Instead, if they want to continue pitching, they'll hope to latch on somewhere and fulfill a similar role as a deep-depth piece.

Andrew Suárez

Andrew Suárez is a more interesting name than many believe. Initially selected in the 2015 draft, Suárez has methodically worked his way through the minors, enjoying success at basically every level he's pitched at. At just 21, he's an interesting arm that the Cardinals are unlikely to give away for free. I believe his spot on the 40-man roster is secure unless the Cardinals find themselves in the middle of a severe roster crunch.

Looking towards next year, the southpaw absolutely has the potential to play a big role in the bullpen. He also has the potential to be optioned back to AAA where he may labor in vain all season. For now, he's the low man on the totem pole. Making a couple of changes, including halving his walk rate, would allow him to change the minds of Cardinals fans. Unfortunately, that is more easily said than done.

However, if Suárez wants to lock up a bullpen spot for 2024, he needs to cut down significantly on his walks while also striking more hitters out. If he can prove he's capable of preventing baserunners and generating whiffs, Suárez will put himself in an optimal position to succeed in 2024.

Drew VerHagen

Drew VerHagen has had a really weird season. He's been much better than he was in 2022, but he hasn't been incredible either. VerHagen doesn't do any one thing particularly well. He generates a solid amount of strikeouts but also walks more batters than he ought to. On top of that, he doesn't allow a ton of homers, but he seems to allow them at the least opportune moment. He also currently has a 4.02 ERA, which puts him roughly 8% better than the league average. Somehow, he wasn't traded at the deadline. He's inexpensive and fairly effective, two things plenty of contending teams should have been lining up for.

Many Cardinals fans didn't like the initial VerHagen signing. That may influence the front office, especially if they're on the fence about bringing him back. VerHagen has shown signs of competence at many points this season. Besides Wainwright, VerHagen was the only player on an expiring contract who was not dealt following the game.

Though the Cardinals will not be aggressively pursuing VerHagen, a reunion remains possible. Between now and the season finale, VerHagen must prove that he belongs on a big league roster, even if that isn't the roster of the St. Louis Cardinals.

John King

John King might be a really good reliever. He's the first of the players the Cardinals acquired at the deadline to suit up for them. Since coming over from Texas, he's been a major bright spot for the Cardinals. In 13 innings, (14 games) King has an ERA of just 1.38. Now, he's been pretty lucky, but that's begun to balance out the awful luck he had in Texas. On the whole, King now owns a 3.98 ERA and a strong 3.58 FIP on the season. He's done an excellent job limiting walks, which minimizes his low strikeout issues.

What King does best is generate ground balls. He's been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball at keeping the ball on the ground. This also allows him to be efficient. King doesn't often find himself deep in counts needing to make some perfect pitch. He attacks hitters, gets ahead, and then forces them to make bad contact. This strong season is right in line with his career numbers. He's been a 4.00 ERA pitcher over parts of four seasons, which is roughly seven percent above league average.

King's strong performance has all but guaranteed him a spot in next year's bullpen. He will likely be one of the top lefties and could fill the role many hoped Pallante would fill this season: the firefighter. In a jam, bring in King. He's probably going to get a ground ball, and that's likely to end the threat! King was overlooked in the Montgomery trade, but he may soon remind Cardinals fans of Romero, another relatively obscure reliever acquired at a deadline with little fanfare. All King needs to do is continue pitching well. As long as he keeps his walk rate down and generates just a few more whiffs, he'll find himself working as a setup man in 2024.

JoJo Romero

JoJo Romero has had one heck of a 2023 season. After being acquired in a low-profile deal at the 2022 trade deadline, Romero secured a spot in the bullpen this season. Seen as a depth arm just several months ago, Romero briefly occupied the closer role before going down with an injury in early September. His ascension to relevance is critical for a Cardinals team that is actively searching for capable relievers. Romero will likely enter 2024 as the team's top lefty. He has an outside shot at closing games, though the presence of Helsley likely relegates Romero to a supporting role.

Romero doesn't have much to prove in 2023, even if he returns before the end of the season. In the event that he does pitch again, he just has to continue doing what he's been doing. He's already proven to Cardinals fans that he was a steal at the deadline, and now he's proving that he's capable of occupying a high-leverage role. Entering 2024, he will be expected to produce high-quality innings. It's truly been remarkable to watch!

Giovanny Gallegos

Giovanny Gallegos is in the middle of his worst year at the MLB level. The good thing is, he's still an effective reliever. His ERA currently sits at 4.42, which is incredibly average. His FIP is a bit lower at 4.28. This is, again, the worst year Gallegos has recorded in a seven-season career as a reliever. The consistency Gallegos has provided over the better part of the last decade is unbelievable. I have previously made the case that Gallegos is a valuable player, and I still stand by that.

Unfortunately, most fans miss or ignore those positives. They view each season individually. Heck, they tend to view each game individually. Each Gio implosion stings anew, and each shutdown inning is merely expected. His job is often thankless. While Gallegos has been an elite high-leverage reliever for the better part of the last five seasons, he's never been a closer. This isn't a talent issue, it's just that the Cardinals have never decided to utilize him in that specific role. Instead, he's been part of committees or he's acted as a set-up man.

With so many relievers missing significant time this season, (Helsley, Romero, Hicks, Naughton, etc.) Gallegos just needs to remain healthy. It would help if he could close out a few big games, as that may quell some fears among fans about his ability to perform in the big moment.

Ryan Helsley

Ryan Helsley is again the closer for the St. Louis Cardinals. After a breakout 2022 season, many believed that Ryan Helsley would again be elite this year. 2023 has been disappointing, but only because he hasn't stayed healthy. When on the field, Helelsy has again been excellent. In 29 innings of work, Helsley has recorded a 2.79 ERA while generating 39 strikeouts. His walk rate is up, but it's not very concerning. Perhaps most encouraging of all is the mastery he has demonstrated to overpower hitters. Helsley has allowed just one home run this season, though it came at the absolute worst moment in San Francisco.

After missing nearly two months of action, Helsley must prove that he's still a star closer. It seems to be the case, but the sample size is small. If Helsley can finish out strong, he will not face competition for the closer's role in Spring Training. This would allow him to calmly settle into that role for the third straight season, providing stability the Cardinals desperately need.

The Cardinals have blown a league-leading 27 saves already this year, and when combined with their lackluster rotation, it becomes clear that the pitching staff is to blame for the down year. With Helsley closing games in 2024, expect that number to drop significantly. However, if he cannot remain healthy or stumbles down the stretch, all of that positivity could be called into question.