What can Statcast tell us about the St. Louis Cardinals' catching situation?

Can Statcast, at Baseball Savant, tell us the "what" and the "why" the catchers are causing such turmoil within the Cardinal Organization?

It seems the one-week-big brouhaha over whether Wilson Contreras is capable enough to be Yadier Molina's successor, is over. What started out with Contreras being removed as the primary catcher and assigned the primary DH role, which was never clearly explained, has now evolved into Contreras being returned to the primary catching role.

All is now well in Cardinal land. Order has been restored.

But what pushed the Cardinal front office and Manager Oli Marmol to make this controversial move in the first place? With the starting rotation struggling to get into the sixth inning and having high ERAs across the board, the blame could fairly be pointed in several directions.

However, when the Cardinals announced Contreras was being moved from the primary catching role and being replaced by Andrew Knizner, the fingers seemed to be pointing squarely at the former Cub. Were the Cardinals just looking for a scapegoat? Or did the analytical-driven Cardinals have other reasons for this move?

Let's look at Statcast and the possible analytical reasons.

Statcast is the primary analytical tool used by all 30 MLB teams to "analyze player movements and athletic abilities in Major League Baseball." It's a "high-speed, high-accuracy, automated tool" which has been in use since 2015.

There are four analytical tools developed by Statcast to measure the effectiveness of today's catchers.

1. Catcher Blocking
2. Catcher Framing
3. Catcher Poptime
4. Catcher Throwing

Using Statcast, I'm going to compare Contreras, Knizner, and the catcher, who I believe the Cardinals really wanted, Sean Murphy. Also, for comparison, I will look at Yadier Molina's 2021 Statcast metrics. It was the last full year Molina was with the Cardinals and a better measurement of his value to the club than in 2022.

Keep in mind, Molina's metrics from 2021 are based on a full year, where Contreras, Knizner's, and Murphy's are based on 2023 to date. Not a full year. This slightly warps Molina's numbers a bit.

Additionally keep in mind a 0 rating, with the exception of poptime, in any, of these measurements is considered league average. A + rating is above league average, and a - rating is below league average.

Catcher Poptime

Catcher Poptime measures the time from the moment the pitch hits the catcher's mitt to the moment reaches the fielder's projected receiving point at the center of the base. It's a combination of exchange time and arm strength. (PT) Poptime is measured in seconds, and the league average to second base is considered 2 seconds.

In 2023, the leader in baseball is J.T. Realmuto with a 1.81 (PT). Out of the 54 catchers listed, Sean Murphy comes in at 6 with a 1.89 (PT). In this metric, Contreras comes in at 13th with a decent Poptime of 1.93. Meanwhile, Knizner comes in at 35th with a 1.99 (PT).

Molina was still one the best in baseball in 2021, with a PT of 1.90, 6th out of 82.

Catcher Throwing

Catcher Throwing is a new metric added for 2023 which is designed to express the skill of catchers throwing out runners on steal attempts, given the opportunities they are presented with. (CSAA).

In this measurement, Elias Diaz leads baseball with a CSAA of 5. Out of the 56 catchers listed, Sean Murphy comes in at 10th with a 2(CSAA), Contreras comes in at 12th with a 1(CSAA), and Knizner comes in at 14 with a 1 (CSAA). Not bad for any of the Cardinal receivers.

In 2021, Molina showed he still had a strong arm with a CSAA of 6, 2nd of 50 catchers in the metric.

So, what does Statcast tell us about the Cardinals catchers?

It tells us it was too bad the Cardinals couldn't close the deal with the As for Sean Murphy. A leader in most of the Statcast categories for catching would have given the Cardinals a catcher closer to what Yadier Molina was in his prime.

It seems too much of a mixed bag with Knizner and Contreras for the Cardinals to make the move they made. Knizner is the much better catcher at blocking and framing, and Willson Contreras has a stronger arm than Knizner.

It's unlikely Knizner's better blocking and framing were the reason Contreras was removed from catching for a week. The Statcast difference between the two are just not that significant. It had to be beyond what Statcast tells us.

What Statcast doesn't tell us

What Statcast doesn't tell us is the impact of Yadier Molina's leadership in the clubhouse, especially when it comes to game planning with the pitchers and managing the game while in progress.

Molina's impact on the organization is best described by A.J. Pierzynski, who backed up Yadi during the last half of the 2014 season. In an interview with the Foul Territory podcast, Pierzynski said, "I never seen one player run an organization the way Yadi did."

Yadier Molina's defensive accomplishments are easy to measure, even before Statcast was in existence. Winning nine Gold Gloves during his career attests to it. What Statcast can't measure is his leadership and his baseball IQ.

This is something Contreras can't duplicate or even should be expected to. Molina is a generational talent.

The Willson Contreras controversy was less about Contreras and his catching skills than it was about a franchise learning to live without Yadier Molina.