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Using past retooling teams as a template for the Cardinals
Rather than tearing it down and rebuilding, the St. Louis Cardinals will likely retool this year once again. These past retools provide a good blueprint.
After another tough start to the season, the St. Louis Cardinals are looking more and more like trade deadline sellers with each passing day.
There are plenty of ways the team could go at the trade deadline, and while fans would prefer the team to take the "buyers" route, a mixture of buying and selling is most likely from John Mozeliak, a retool if you will.
Mo has a plethora of players on expiring contracts on the roster; Paul Goldschmidt, Keynan Middleton, Andrew Kittredge, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Brandon Crawford, Matt Carpenter, and Giovanny Gallegos are all fully-fledged free agents or players with team options attached for 2025. In a fire sale situation, it's possible most of these players depart.
Shipping off expiring contracts, something the organization did last year, would constitute a "retool" rather than a "rebuild". Now, if players like Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras are traded, Cardinal fans may have to hunker down for a rebuild.
Given the fanbase's desire to see an annual contender, a retool may be the most ideal route for the team this year. Despite lackluster offensive performances from the players of the future such as Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Jordan Walker, the team still has ample youth with talent on the major league roster. In the minors, guys such as Thomas Saggese, Victor Scott II, and Chase Davis are scratching at the upper levels. The future is at least stable if not bright for the Cardinals.
I wanted to take a look at past retools that ended up being successful as a template for the Cardinals this year. Some organizations, like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, have long track records of success despite less-than-optimal draft picks. Others, such as the Washington Nationals, were bottom dwellers for a time and could reap the benefits of high draft picks.
The Cardinals fall into the former category, a historically successful team despite non-optimal draft slots. Regardless, we can still use teams that have teetered between tanking and thriving.
With this exercise, I'll analyze what the team did in their worst season to trade away players and how they experienced success in the subsequent season.
Here are 4 recent "retool" success stories from other organizations.
2012 Boston Red Sox into 2013 season
2012 record: 69-93 (5th in American League East)
2013 record: 97-65 (1st in American League East, won the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals)
This rags-to-riches story is one of the most successful retools in the history of baseball. The Red Sox won 90 games in 2011, but they missed the playoffs that year. Their 2012 season was abysmal; Terry Francona had just departed before the 2012 season, and Bobby Valentine led an uninspired group of players to a terrible season.
The subsequent offseason included the Red Sox firing Bobby Valentine and hiring John Farrell as his replacement. They signed catcher David Ross, outfielder Shane Victorino, pitcher Koji Uehara, Stephen Drew, Joel Hanrahan, and outfielder Jonny Gomes over the offseason to fill crucial holes on the roster. They also traded for catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli.
In just one offseason of acquisitions, the Red Sox remade their roster. In total, they spent well over $60 million in free agency. They were able to spend this money thanks to wily trades by Ben Cherington during the season. Cherington traded away Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford, and Josh Becket to the Los Angeles Dodgers, putting the BoSox under the luxury tax threshold.
Thanks to trades that involved offloading of over-priced stars and careful spending in the offseason, the Red Sox were able to turn a sub-70-win team into a World Series Champion in just one season. The Cardinals could mirror this methodology this trade deadline and offseason. By being willing to trade expensive stars like Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras, the Cardinals could open up financial flexibility to spend via free agency.
2015 Nationals into 2016 season
2015 record: 83-79 (2nd in National League East)
2016 Record: 95-67 (1st in National League East, lost in NLDS)
At the time of the 2015 trade deadline, the Nationals sat in first place in their division with a 54-47 record. They added closer Jonathan Papelbon for Nick Pivetta in an attempt to go all in that year. It did not work out, and the team ended up missing the playoffs altogether.
The biggest change for the Washington Nationals after missing out on the playoffs in 2015 was within their coaching staff. The manager, Mike Williams, and his entire staff were fired. Washington interviewed a handful of big-name coaches including Alex Cora, Bud Black, Dusty Baker, and Ron Gardenhire. They ended up hiring Dusty Baker to be their manager.
Baker brought on Mike Maddux as the pitching coach; he brought back first base coach Davey Lopes, and Rick Schu and Bob Henley were added as the hitting coach and third base coach, respectively.
The Nationals let Ian Desmond, Denard Span, and Jordan Zimmerman become free agents. This freed up financial space for acquisitions. December for the Nationals was quite active. They added players such as Daniel Murphy, Stephen Drew, Drew Storen, and Yusmeiro Petit to shore up the lineup. Major acquisitions weren't necessary, because Washington had Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Michael A. Taylor as rising young players.
Washington's rotation was its strongest aspect with players like Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Stephen Strasburg returning in 2016. Tanner Roark was a pitcher on the rise as well. Though the Nationals did not make it far in the playoffs, their return in 2016 set them up for an eventual World Series victory down the road. They ended up winning the NL East.
If the Cardinals can build a strong rotation this offseason and let their young position player loose, they could mirror the 2016 Washington Nationals. Young pitchers like Tink Hence could help lead the rotation with Sonny Gray next year. If Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, and Nolan Gorman can take the next step, the Cardinals can return as kings of the central without many major moves.
Keep in mind, the Nationals also did a full reset on their coaching staff. They brought in veterans from the outside of the organization with a storied resume. That would make a big difference for the Cardinals.
2016 New York Yankees into 2017 season
2016 record: 84-78 record (4th in American League East)
2017 record: 91-71 record (2nd in American League East, lost in ALCS)
This type of retool would be the most complicated to replicate. The Yankees brass was exceptional at flipping players in the 2016 season to set themselves up for success in 2017. After knowing they wouldn't be serious playoff contenders, general manager Brian Cashman began dealing away players.
He traded Aroldis Chapman, an impending free agent, to the Chicago Cubs for Gleyber Torres. They also traded pitcher Andrew Miller to the Cleveland Indians for Clint Frazier. Lastly, New York traded away Ivan Nova and Carlos Beltran to offload some salary.
The retirement of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez increased the financial flexibility of the team for the upcoming offseason, and top prospects like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Tyler Austin made their debuts later in the 2016 season, setting them up for success next year.
During the 2016-2017 offseason, the Yankees signed outfielder Matt Holliday, and they brought back closer Aroldis Chapman on a five-year, $86 million deal. The 2017 Yankees team is most known for the "Baby Bombers", a moniker given to Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino for their prowess in 2017.
The 2017 Yankees also had a very young rotation led by Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery with veterans such as Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, and Sonny Gray on the back end. In addition to their strong rotation, the primary cause for success for the 2017 Yankees was their bullpen. They had 7 pitchers who threw at least 35 innings with an ERA+ greater than 117.
The Yankees were able to trade away players who were of no help to them during the lost second half of 2016. They also leaned heavily on their young players in 2017. The Cardinals can easily mirror this in 2024-2025. By trading away players like Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge, the Cardinals can bring back a young player or two who will be ready to contribute very soon. Resigning these veterans during free agency would be a shrewd move. A formidable bullpen, a reliance on power, and a focus on youth can help the Cardinals match the 2017 Yankees retool success.
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