Two NPB pitchers the Cardinals should target (and two they should avoid)

As Samurai Japan clinched their third World Baseball Classic title in March, and with Shohei Ohtani continuing to dominate both as a pitcher and a hitter, American fans are learning more than ever just how big a powerhouse Japanese baseball is. 2024 will see one of the largest free agent classes of Japanese-born players ever, and the St. Louis Cardinals are perfectly positioned to acquire some of the loaded pitching talent coming stateside.

The Cardinals have seen considerable success with acquiring players from NPB and also the KBO. Miles Mikolas, So Taguchi, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Drew VerHagen are some of the most notable players the Cards have signed from Japan and Korea. While it’s always exciting to see even more available names in the free-agent market, the Cardinals need to be smart about who they will sign.

For every diamond in the rough such as Miles Mikolas, there is also an overpaid and overrated “star” such as Yusei Kikuchi. With Japan amidst a “dead ball” era, in which league average ERA and league average OPS sit around 3.00 and .670 respectively, most Japanese pitching numbers will look deceptively strong when compared to MLB standards. It is critical not to overrate the performances of some of these players.

With the Cardinals seeking three starting pitchers this offseason, they will surely need to be creative about how they spend money and who to target. Here are two pitchers from NPB that the Cardinals should target and two they should avoid.

Target - Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto’s success speaks for itself. I’ve covered his successes more in-depth in a different article, so to put it succinctly, he’s probably the best-starting pitcher available this offseason. Even better than Nola, Snell, and Gray. Coming off his third consecutive triple crown, where he led all of NPB in ERA, wins, and strikeouts, the 25-year-old starter will certainly command a hefty price but one that the Cardinals should be willing to match. Deadball era or not, Yamamoto’s 1.21 ERA and 0.884 WHIP are rightfully eye-popping. His stellar 9.3 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 should also translate well to MLB where strikeout rate and walk rate tend to remain constant coming from NPB.

The “uncertainty” surrounding the top Japanese players has also cleared up tremendously in recent years, and Yamamoto should be the next in a long line of success stories. Comparing him to Darvish, Tanaka, Senga, and even Ohtani (as a pitcher) might even be selling him short. It’s possible he could be the best Japanese starting pitcher to ever reach MLB so far. (I’m looking at you, Roki Sasaki)

Yamamoto will be attached to a hefty posting fee from Orix, but unlike Nola or Snell, the Cardinals will not forfeit a draft pick by signing him. Moreover, he’s by far the youngest starter available on the free-agent market. At only age 25, it’s likely Yamamoto will continue to improve his craft just like the 23-year-old Shohei Ohtani when he arrived in 2018. Only time will tell just how good the young ace can be.

Avoid - Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

Sure Japan just won the World Baseball Classic, and many players have had notable success in America, but not every Japanese player making the jump to MLB will thrive. Plenty of them have failed to adjust to a higher level of play, and the 29-year-old Naoyuki Uwasawa is likely to be one of them.

John Mozeliak’s “dumpster diving” has been long noted by Cardinal fans over the years. Jon Lester, Wade LeBlanc, Casey Lawrence, and J.A. Happ come to mind, and Uwasawa would fit seamlessly into that group. He has been just fine in his NPB career, but he’s not anything particularly special. The Fighters' starter pitched to a 2.96 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in 2023, and while those numbers would be fantastic in MLB, they’re just under league average in the dead-ball run environment in Japan. His 6.6 K/9 also won’t help the Cardinals’ need for increased strikeouts. With numbers below his career averages in 2023, it's possible Uwasawa is exiting his prime. Count on MLB hitters to feast on his lackluster fastball velocity.

Unlike the flamethrower Shintaro Fujinami, none of Uwasawa’s tools stick out as particularly exciting, so his ceiling isn’t very high either. Think of him as you would James Paxton, Kyle Gibson, or Matthew Boyd. He’s projected to command a similar deal to Kohei Arihara, who was absolutely dreadful in 2 seasons with the Rangers. The Cardinals will surely have better internal options (Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Michael McGreevey, and even Dakota Hudson come to mind), so signing Uwasawa would be a waste of money.

Target - Yuki Matsui, Rakuten Eagles

We’ve talked about starters, but the Cardinals will also need to bolster their bullpen this offseason. For Japanese relievers, Matsui is one of the best.

He recently notched his 200th career save, becoming the youngest in NPB history to accomplish the feat. He’s posted an ERA under 2.00 in 4 of the last 5 seasons, including a remarkable 0.63 ERA through 43 innings in 2021. His strikeout numbers, which should look similar in MLB, are also electric. He doesn’t have the velocity of Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley, but Matsui’s command and breaking pitches make up for it resulting in a 12.0 career K/9. Matsui did have a bit of trouble with the MLB baseball at the 2023 WBC, but many Japanese pitchers have noted a quick adjustment, so the level of concern should be low.

Perhaps his most valuable tool, however, is his availability. With Giovanny Gallegos’ high-leverage effectiveness in question, Ryan Helsley’s availability and health spotty at times, Hicks traded to Toronto, and an injury to breakout reliever JoJo Romero, Matsui would be a perfect back-end bullpen arm to solidify the staff who won’t command nearly as large a contract as top free agent Josh Hader. Matsui is notably available as an International free agent, meaning he will not be attached to a posting fee nor will the Cardinals give up draft pick compensation. Yes, the Cardinals’ primary focus this offseason should be on starting pitching, but Matsui’s ceiling as a cheap All-Star-worthy closer makes him a very intriguing option for the pen.