Two NPB pitchers the Cardinals should target (and two they should avoid)

As Samurai Japan clinched their third World Baseball Classic title in March, and with Shohei Ohtani continuing to dominate both as a pitcher and a hitter, American fans are learning more than ever just how big a powerhouse Japanese baseball is. 2024 will see one of the largest free agent classes of Japanese-born players ever, and the St. Louis Cardinals are perfectly positioned to acquire some of the loaded pitching talent coming stateside.

The Cardinals have seen considerable success with acquiring players from NPB and also the KBO. Miles Mikolas, So Taguchi, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Drew VerHagen are some of the most notable players the Cards have signed from Japan and Korea. While it’s always exciting to see even more available names in the free-agent market, the Cardinals need to be smart about who they will sign.

For every diamond in the rough such as Miles Mikolas, there is also an overpaid and overrated “star” such as Yusei Kikuchi. With Japan amidst a “dead ball” era, in which league average ERA and league average OPS sit around 3.00 and .670 respectively, most Japanese pitching numbers will look deceptively strong when compared to MLB standards. It is critical not to overrate the performances of some of these players.

With the Cardinals seeking three starting pitchers this offseason, they will surely need to be creative about how they spend money and who to target. Here are two pitchers from NPB that the Cardinals should target and two they should avoid.

Target - Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto’s success speaks for itself. I’ve covered his successes more in-depth in a different article, so to put it succinctly, he’s probably the best-starting pitcher available this offseason. Even better than Nola, Snell, and Gray. Coming off his third consecutive triple crown, where he led all of NPB in ERA, wins, and strikeouts, the 25-year-old starter will certainly command a hefty price but one that the Cardinals should be willing to match. Deadball era or not, Yamamoto’s 1.21 ERA and 0.884 WHIP are rightfully eye-popping. His stellar 9.3 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 should also translate well to MLB where strikeout rate and walk rate tend to remain constant coming from NPB.

The “uncertainty” surrounding the top Japanese players has also cleared up tremendously in recent years, and Yamamoto should be the next in a long line of success stories. Comparing him to Darvish, Tanaka, Senga, and even Ohtani (as a pitcher) might even be selling him short. It’s possible he could be the best Japanese starting pitcher to ever reach MLB so far. (I’m looking at you, Roki Sasaki)

Yamamoto will be attached to a hefty posting fee from Orix, but unlike Nola or Snell, the Cardinals will not forfeit a draft pick by signing him. Moreover, he’s by far the youngest starter available on the free-agent market. At only age 25, it’s likely Yamamoto will continue to improve his craft just like the 23-year-old Shohei Ohtani when he arrived in 2018. Only time will tell just how good the young ace can be.

Avoid - Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

Sure Japan just won the World Baseball Classic, and many players have had notable success in America, but not every Japanese player making the jump to MLB will thrive. Plenty of them have failed to adjust to a higher level of play, and the 29-year-old Naoyuki Uwasawa is likely to be one of them.

John Mozeliak’s “dumpster diving” has been long noted by Cardinal fans over the years. Jon Lester, Wade LeBlanc, Casey Lawrence, and J.A. Happ come to mind, and Uwasawa would fit seamlessly into that group. He has been just fine in his NPB career, but he’s not anything particularly special. The Fighters' starter pitched to a 2.96 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in 2023, and while those numbers would be fantastic in MLB, they’re just under league average in the dead-ball run environment in Japan. His 6.6 K/9 also won’t help the Cardinals’ need for increased strikeouts. With numbers below his career averages in 2023, it's possible Uwasawa is exiting his prime. Count on MLB hitters to feast on his lackluster fastball velocity.

Unlike the flamethrower Shintaro Fujinami, none of Uwasawa’s tools stick out as particularly exciting, so his ceiling isn’t very high either. Think of him as you would James Paxton, Kyle Gibson, or Matthew Boyd. He’s projected to command a similar deal to Kohei Arihara, who was absolutely dreadful in 2 seasons with the Rangers. The Cardinals will surely have better internal options (Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Michael McGreevey, and even Dakota Hudson come to mind), so signing Uwasawa would be a waste of money.

Avoid - Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Of all these pitchers, the Cardinals have scouted Imanaga the most. His strikeout ability is intriguing, but his 10.6 K/9 in 2023 is considerably higher than his career rate of 9.4, so it may be a case of overperformance. However, the real concern with Imanaga is run prevention. He was great in 2022, with a 2.26 ERA, but aside from that, he’s sat between 2.80 and 3.00 in recent seasons, resembling Uwasawa much more than Yamamoto. His plus-fastball is very intriguing, and if he can put the pieces together at the Major League level, he will become a premier starting pitcher. However, the Cardinals are in need of proven talent, and Imanaga might not fit the bill.

Imanaga’s 2023 Climax Series in the NPB Postseason was also not great. As the BayStars’ starting pitcher in game 2, he only threw 5 innings allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and one walk. With a meager 3 strikeouts, Imanaga’s final outing with the BayStars also resulted in their elimination. It is a small sample size, but the lack of length and swing and miss are both concerns for an already weak Cardinals rotation.

If the Cardinals are seeking two arms more effective than Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, Imanaga does not fit that standard. Considering the run environment in Japan, there may be better places to look for Imanaga’s production. Mikolas, who pitched in a less pitcher-friendly NPB, posted numbers significantly better than Imanaga. While Mikolas has regressed quite a bit lately, it will still be difficult for Imanaga to surpass him.