Two NPB pitchers the Cardinals should target (and two they should avoid)

As Samurai Japan clinched their third World Baseball Classic title in March, and with Shohei Ohtani continuing to dominate both as a pitcher and a hitter, American fans are learning more than ever just how big a powerhouse Japanese baseball is. 2024 will see one of the largest free agent classes of Japanese-born players ever, and the St. Louis Cardinals are perfectly positioned to acquire some of the loaded pitching talent coming stateside.

The Cardinals have seen considerable success with acquiring players from NPB and also the KBO. Miles Mikolas, So Taguchi, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Drew VerHagen are some of the most notable players the Cards have signed from Japan and Korea. While it’s always exciting to see even more available names in the free-agent market, the Cardinals need to be smart about who they will sign.

For every diamond in the rough such as Miles Mikolas, there is also an overpaid and overrated “star” such as Yusei Kikuchi. With Japan amidst a “dead ball” era, in which league average ERA and league average OPS sit around 3.00 and .670 respectively, most Japanese pitching numbers will look deceptively strong when compared to MLB standards. It is critical not to overrate the performances of some of these players.

With the Cardinals seeking three starting pitchers this offseason, they will surely need to be creative about how they spend money and who to target. Here are two pitchers from NPB that the Cardinals should target and two they should avoid.

Avoid - Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

Sure Japan just won the World Baseball Classic, and many players have had notable success in America, but not every Japanese player making the jump to MLB will thrive. Plenty of them have failed to adjust to a higher level of play, and the 29-year-old Naoyuki Uwasawa is likely to be one of them.

John Mozeliak’s “dumpster diving” has been long noted by Cardinal fans over the years. Jon Lester, Wade LeBlanc, Casey Lawrence, and J.A. Happ come to mind, and Uwasawa would fit seamlessly into that group. He has been just fine in his NPB career, but he’s not anything particularly special. The Fighters' starter pitched to a 2.96 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in 2023, and while those numbers would be fantastic in MLB, they’re just under league average in the dead-ball run environment in Japan. His 6.6 K/9 also won’t help the Cardinals’ need for increased strikeouts. With numbers below his career averages in 2023, it's possible Uwasawa is exiting his prime. Count on MLB hitters to feast on his lackluster fastball velocity.

Unlike the flamethrower Shintaro Fujinami, none of Uwasawa’s tools stick out as particularly exciting, so his ceiling isn’t very high either. Think of him as you would James Paxton, Kyle Gibson, or Matthew Boyd. He’s projected to command a similar deal to Kohei Arihara, who was absolutely dreadful in 2 seasons with the Rangers. The Cardinals will surely have better internal options (Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Michael McGreevey, and even Dakota Hudson come to mind), so signing Uwasawa would be a waste of money.

Target - Yuki Matsui, Rakuten Eagles

We’ve talked about starters, but the Cardinals will also need to bolster their bullpen this offseason. For Japanese relievers, Matsui is one of the best.

He recently notched his 200th career save, becoming the youngest in NPB history to accomplish the feat. He’s posted an ERA under 2.00 in 4 of the last 5 seasons, including a remarkable 0.63 ERA through 43 innings in 2021. His strikeout numbers, which should look similar in MLB, are also electric. He doesn’t have the velocity of Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley, but Matsui’s command and breaking pitches make up for it resulting in a 12.0 career K/9. Matsui did have a bit of trouble with the MLB baseball at the 2023 WBC, but many Japanese pitchers have noted a quick adjustment, so the level of concern should be low.

Perhaps his most valuable tool, however, is his availability. With Giovanny Gallegos’ high-leverage effectiveness in question, Ryan Helsley’s availability and health spotty at times, Hicks traded to Toronto, and an injury to breakout reliever JoJo Romero, Matsui would be a perfect back-end bullpen arm to solidify the staff who won’t command nearly as large a contract as top free agent Josh Hader. Matsui is notably available as an International free agent, meaning he will not be attached to a posting fee nor will the Cardinals give up draft pick compensation. Yes, the Cardinals’ primary focus this offseason should be on starting pitching, but Matsui’s ceiling as a cheap All-Star-worthy closer makes him a very intriguing option for the pen.

Avoid - Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Of all these pitchers, the Cardinals have scouted Imanaga the most. His strikeout ability is intriguing, but his 10.6 K/9 in 2023 is considerably higher than his career rate of 9.4, so it may be a case of overperformance. However, the real concern with Imanaga is run prevention. He was great in 2022, with a 2.26 ERA, but aside from that, he’s sat between 2.80 and 3.00 in recent seasons, resembling Uwasawa much more than Yamamoto. His plus-fastball is very intriguing, and if he can put the pieces together at the Major League level, he will become a premier starting pitcher. However, the Cardinals are in need of proven talent, and Imanaga might not fit the bill.

Imanaga’s 2023 Climax Series in the NPB Postseason was also not great. As the BayStars’ starting pitcher in game 2, he only threw 5 innings allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and one walk. With a meager 3 strikeouts, Imanaga’s final outing with the BayStars also resulted in their elimination. It is a small sample size, but the lack of length and swing and miss are both concerns for an already weak Cardinals rotation.

If the Cardinals are seeking two arms more effective than Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, Imanaga does not fit that standard. Considering the run environment in Japan, there may be better places to look for Imanaga’s production. Mikolas, who pitched in a less pitcher-friendly NPB, posted numbers significantly better than Imanaga. While Mikolas has regressed quite a bit lately, it will still be difficult for Imanaga to surpass him.