Three trade deadline deals that together make the Cardinals a postseason threat

Here we go! The St. Louis Cardinals are 47-42, have a firm grasp of the second Wild Card, and are now 32-18 in their last 50 games, good for a .640% win percentage. You don't have to believe in the Cardinals as some kind of World Series contender, but they are without a doubt buying at this year's trade deadline and looking to make a run in October.

It's been well documented at this point the three areas the Cardinals would be interested in upgrading in - finding another starter, fortifying their bullpen, and potentially adding a right-handed bat to their lineup (likely in a platoon role). All of that makes sense. The rotation has been encouraging this year but still needs upgrades for October. The bullpen has been excellent, but the frequency the Cardinals go to it requires more arms. And while the lineup is heating up again, their inability to hit left-handed pitching is a major problem.

We've put out a lot of content on this site about what kinds of players the Cardinals could target to fit certain needs on their roster, but we really haven't put together a mock outline of how the Cardinals can address each of their needs in a way that plays off of each other.

For example, if the Cardinals go out and add an impact starter who can be a true number two or number three in the postseason, it is unlikely that make that big of a swing for a reliever or bat. The same can be said for each of those other needs. How the Cardinals choose to address one need will have an influence on the others.

With just over three weeks to go until the July 30th trade deadline, I took my first stab at creating some trade packages the Cardinals could potentially put together in order to upgrade their roster and be a real threat in October.

Here are three moves that together can bolster the Cardinals' roster for October at the trade deadline

This move might burn down Twitter but makes way too much sense

Could you imagine what would happen if the Cardinals traded Dylan Carlson to the Washington Nationals for a reliever?

Part of me thinks it would be the most hilarious and fitting ending to the Carlson era that there could possibly be, while the other part of me knows I'll want to pull all of my hair out listening to people continue to pump the false narrative that Dylan Carlson was the reason the Cardinals did not land Juan Soto.

Honestly, I love this deal though. And I think it's the perfect blend of ironic and sensible that I could totally see it happening.

I have zero idea how to value Carlson at this point, and if the Cardinals want to move him, I think it will be far less than we would like it to be. Let's not forget that Tyler O'Neill, who had a top-ten MVP finish just two years prior and has provided far more value than Carlson when he's been on the field, netted the Cardinals Nick Robertson and Victor Santos this offseason. Everyone knew the Cardinals wanted to move O'Neill, and it would be the same situation here with Carlson if they went that route.

Still, I'm sure a club can talk themselves into the fact that Carlson is under club control for a few more seasons and was once a top prospect in all of baseball, but I think you're probably looking at a reliever in some kind of swap at this point.

While I have no idea what teams would actually want Carlson, what we do know is that Washington at least thought very highly of him back in 2022. Not highly enough to get a Soto deal done without throwing in Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Tink Hence, and a few other prospects as well, but it's clear they liked Carlson a lot. So if there was any team in baseball who may give you a nice bullpen piece in return for Carlson, you would think it would be the Nationals.

Floro is having an excellent season with the Nationals this year, posting a 2.06 ERA in 43.2 innings pitched. He's going to wow you with his stuff that includes a low-90s sinker and below-average swing-and-miss, but his sinker-slider combination has certainly gotten the job done this year. You are also acquiring a veteran arm with a good track record here, as Floro has maintained a 3.26 ERA over the course of nine seasons, with the real blip in his radar being his 2023 campaign.

I highly doubt Carlson will help the Cardinals snag an elite reliever at this deadline. I know Richie Palacios got the Cardinals Andrew Kittredge this past offseason, but he has six years of club control remaining, and there was a lot of potential to bet on there. Yes, there is upside to hope for with Carlson, but I just don't think the Cardinals have the leverage here to get more than someone like Floro.

Adding Floro to the group of Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Fernandez, Matthew Liberatore, and John King enhances the Cardinals bullpen even more so, which is already a top-10 unit in baseball.

The Cardinals get their number two starter

If the Cardinals are going to make a significant move at this year's trade deadline, it has to be for a number two starter, right? No matter how much room for growth this lineup has or how good this bullpen already is, it is hard to believe in a team's chances in October without two true difference-makers in their starting rotation.

I think it is safe to say we will not see the Cardinals move any of the following names at this deadline: Jordan Walker, Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe, Chase Davis, and Thomas Saggese. Frankly, I don't really think I see a deal out there where they would move Victor Scott II or Ivan Herrera, but I wouldn't rule out either being dealt, especially Herrera given the Cardinals' view of Pedro Pages.

Outside of that group, the Cardinals have a lot of middle-tier names that they would probably be open to moving. It may end up taking a name from that group to get a pitcher talented enough to pair with Sonny Gray at the top of their rotation, but I think someone like Max Scherzer will come at a lower price than that.

Tekaoh Roby is someone who I think would make for a very interesting centerpiece here. Obviously the Cardinals acquired Roby from Texas last deadline in the Jordan Montgomery deal, so the Rangers know Roby well. I don't think they loved having to move him last summer, but with his injury and their desire to go all in on winning the World Series, they had to be willing to part with talent like him. In a lost 2024 season, they could recoup that arm they drafted.

Roby has been on the IL since late May with an undisclosed injury, so that complicates his value, but he was in a similar situation health-wise last summer when the Cardinals acquired him. Roby was a top 100 prospect according to multiple outlets before the season, so the talent is clearly there.

I originally had Gordon Graceffo as the centerpiece of this trade, and maybe that could happen. The Cardinals' farm system has taken some steps forward this year, but it's still regarded as middle of the pack among teams at best. I kind of have a hard time believing that the Cardinals could get away with protecting seven of their top prospects (Hence, Mathews, Hjerpe, Davis, Saggese, Scott, and Roby) and still get this done.

I know there has been buzz to go after a different Rangers starter in Nathan Eovaldi, but to this point, there are conflicting views within the industry regarding whether or not Eovaldi would actually be available. Scherzer, on the other hand, is expected by rival GMs to be a player the Rangers look to cash in on over the next few weeks.

Scherzer has spent the majority of the season on the injured list this year, but in his three starts since returning, he has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. His strikeout rate has been significantly lower so far this season, but it is far too early to call that an issue.

It has been well documented that Scherzer has wanted to play for his hometown team in the past, but it is unclear whether or not he would wave his no-trade for them since they pasted on him. I would imagine that at this stage in his career though, going back home and pitching for a contender would be appealing, and I bet the Cardinals would want to extend him following the season.

How the team would look after these trade deadline moves

All in all, here is what the Cardinals' deadline movement would look like:

Acquiring: RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Dylan Floro, OF Randal Grichuk

Trading away: RHP Tekoah Roby, OF Dylan Carlson, 1B Luken Baker, LHP Pete Hansen

All of those moves would result in a roster looking something like:

SS Masyn Winn
RF Lars Nootbaar
C Willson Contreras
DH Alec Burleson
LF Brendan Donovan
3B Nolan Arenado
2B Nolan Gorman
1B Paul Goldschmidt
CF Michael Siani/Tommy Edman

Bench: C Pedro Pages OR Ivan Herrera, OF Randal Grichuk, INF Brandon Crawford, INF Matt Carpenter

Rotation:
RHP Sonny Gray
RHP Max Scherzer
RHP Kyle Gibson
RHP Miles Mikloas
RHP Lance Lynn OR Andre Pallante

Bullpen:
RHP Ryan Helsley
LHP JoJo Romero
RHP Andrew Kittredge
RHP Ryan Fernandez
RHP Dylan Floro
LHP Matthew Liberatore
LHP John King
RHP Giovanny Gallegos or RHP Chris Roycroft

Honestly, I really like this team. They would still be class below the Phillies and Dodgers, but I think it makes them as good as anyone else in the National League and gives them a puncher's chance of doing something special in October. The lineup would be dangerous against right-handed pitching and at least competent against lefties, their rotation would be headlined by two arms who know how to win in the biggest of games, and their bullpen goes eight deep and can shut down opposing lineups as early as Oli Marmol needs to call upon them.

I do not support the idea of going out and making really risky moves involving your top assets, but the Cardinals doing something like this, taking one major swing with Scherzer and paying less due to the risks associated with him as well as a quality piece to their bullpen and lineup, feels like the appropriate level of aggression for this Cardinals' team.