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Three fallback options if the Cardinals can't sign Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola is one of the Cardinals top targets this offseason. If they are not able to sign him, where else could they turn?
This offseason is shaping up to potentially be one of the most exciting offseasons in recent Cardinals history. After losing 91 games and missing the postseason for the first time since 2018, the Cardinals seem to be aware of what they need to do to get back into contention.
It's no secret that the Cardinals need pitching, and they need it badly in order to avoid a repeat performance of the 2023 season. Fortunately, reports from Derrick Goold indicate that Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola are on their radar, which also means that the Cards may finally be willing to do what it takes to get top-level pitching.
I personally believe that an ideal offseason would include the Cardinals adding both Nola and Gray. However, I am skeptical about this, not because I think it's a bad idea or that the Cardinals shouldn't do it, but more so that it's going to be incredibly difficult to land two top-level guys.
Keep in mind that when pursuing Nola, the Cardinals are going to have to bid against the big boys such as the Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, and others. These are the big-market teams that have the most financial resources, and it's not going to be easy to outbid them.
The Cardinals should put their best foot forward, but even if they do, it won't be easy. Fortunately, there are plenty of starters available in free agency. I also do believe that the Cardinals will at least be able to get one of Nola or Gray, with Gray being the most likely.
But in the case of Nola, here are three fallback options if the Cardinals are unable to sign him.
Jordan Montgomery
We know that the Cardinals are going to need three starters this winter, and in my opinion, the best options are on the free-agent market, where they could potentially reunite with an old friend.
The Cardinals traded Jordan Montgomery to the Rangers this year at the deadline in exchange for Thomas Sagesse, Tekoah Roby, and John King. That deal appears to be working out quite well right now for the Cardinals.
But Montgomery is an interesting pitcher because he's getting better. He was more of a ground-ball guy when the Cardinals picked him up from the Yankees last year. But before the trade to Texas, Montgomery was averaging eight strikeouts per nine innings with the Cards.
I wouldn't call him an ace by any means, but he's certainly trending in the right direction. His performance in the Wild Card Series against the Rays last week can attest to that. He finished the regular season with a record of 10-11 and an ERA of 3.20, which is his best mark since making his Major League debut in 2017.
Eduardo Rodriguez
Another interesting option in free agency may be Eduardo Rodriguez. He is expected to opt out of the remaining three years of his deal with the Tigers that he signed back in 2021.
Rodriguez has spent most of his career with the Red Sox and was part of the team's 2018 World Series championship run. This year, he put together his best season to date, winning 13 games and posting a 3.30 ERA. He also averaged 8.4 strikeouts per game, so he could bring some swing-and-miss to a Cardinals rotation that sorely needs it.
One concern for Rodriguez is his injury history, and the Cardinals may want to think twice about that before committing to him. He had a finger injury that kept him out from late May to early July. The 30-year-old also injured his ribcage in 2022.
However, when healthy, Rodriguez pitched to his full potential and helped the Tigers improve to 78-84 after 96 losses in 2022. He's a similar pitcher to Montgomery and could be had if the Cardinals need an extra fallback option.
Rodriguez is also a well-established veteran who has been around since 2015.
Lucas Giolito
Giolito has had a string of bad seasons dating back to last year. The former All-Star was 8-15 with a 4.88 ERA in 2023 with the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians. Also, in no way am I saying that he's a better option than Nola.
But if the Cardinals are unable to sign Nola, Giolito could be had on a shorter-term deal. The veteran right-hander is still a very solid strikeout pitcher, having punched out 204 batters this season and averaged 10 per game.
This could make him an attractive option for the Cardinals. He's been a top-level starter in the past, so he does have a strong body of work to fall back on. The walks are a bit of a concern. He averaged close to four per game this season.
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But if he can continue to strike hitters out while also cutting down on the walks, a return to form may be in the cards for Giolito. Giolito is also close with former Cardinal Jack Flaherty and Braves ace Max Fried, having been high-school teammates in California, so he may already have a foot in the door if the Cards come calling for his services this winter.