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Three Cardinal players to move on from right now
There comes a time when you must make the hard decision that the players you drafted just might not reach the level we all expected from them and move on.
For the first time in several seasons, the St. Louis Cardinals are playing for next year.
What that should mean is wanting to try and see what players can fit into their plans for next year. With no playoff in the picture, this should mean that they can be looking at a bunch of new lineups with new fresh faces, not trotting out the same players that already have a track record.
What has been a big problem in the last couple of years is the reluctance from the front office to make changes. You spent a lot of time, researching, drafting, and developing players, or trading for them and I get that you still see the potential. There comes a time when you must make the hard decision that they just might not reach the level we all expected from them and move on.
Here are a few players I think it’s time to move on from.
Dylan Carlson
Dylan Carlson is only 24 years old and I understand to most reading this it is crazy to move on from someone this young. Especially someone that came in third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2021.
The problem is every year since that rookie season he has regressed. His BA/OBP/SLG has gone from .266/.343/.437 in 2021 to .236/.316/.380 last year and this year it is .219/.318/.333. His OPS has dropped from .780 in 2021, to .695 last year and this year it is down to .651. Almost every offensive category is on a downward trend.
But he is such a good outfielder you say. Looking at a fairly new stat but one I really like better than most defensive stats is OAA (Outs Above Average). OAA is the cumulative effect of all individual plays a fielder has been credited or debited with. So the harder the play is to make the more points it counts for. You can read the entire definition here.
So how does he stack up if we use his center field stats? At the top of the list using 2021 through today, we see Michael Taylor with an OAA of 18, Trent Grisham is second at 17, and some guy named Harrison Bader, during the time he was with the Cardinals, came in third with an OAA of 14(with the Yankees he has an OAA of 7). Carlson during that time has an OAA of ZERO. So he is the very definition of average. Lars Nootbar playing centerfield has a +2.
Looking at real numbers we have an average center-fielder whose offensive production has gone down every year since his rookie year.
Dakota Hudson
Hudson will be 29 years old in September. After a relieving role in 2018, he became a starter for the Cardinals in 2019. Those five seasons have not gone as well as expected for a first-round draft choice who received votes for ROY.
He has had Tommy John surgery, other elbow issues, and neck issues. As recently as this year he had more neck issues. In five years he has only been able to start 70 games.
Recently it seems he has pitched much better. However, the stats show a different picture and it’s not nearly as good as we think. This year his FIP is 4.86. The league average (LA) this year is 4.37. WHIP is 1.405 and LA is 1.33. Strikeouts to walks is 2.0 and LA is 2.57.
If you look at the Fangraphs projection over the next 3 years, ZIPS is expecting his production to be relatively flat.
He has so much talent that it will be hard to let him go. It’s quite possible as soon as he gets traded his health improves and he finds one more pitch and becomes the next pitcher that we blame MO for trading. Right now, the numbers don’t back that up. The Cardinals have gotten to the spot they are in right now by having too many average or below-average pitchers. It’s time to pivot from pitchers like Hudson and find someone with the potential upside Hudson had as a rookie.
Tyler O’Neill
On August 6th our very own Josh Jacobs wrote an excellent article on Tyler O’Neill where he said “I am beginning to believe the Cardinals' best path toward contention in 2024 will be by keeping Tyler O'Neill in their starting outfield.” Tyler O’Neill was promptly shut down for a couple of games for ‘knee tightness”.
Josh is right, he is an amazing talent. A Gold Glove, a power hitter with speed, and recently he has been tearing the cover off the ball. He is the good Tyler O’Neill again. He is also the O’Neill who over six years has only played a hundred games in only one of those seasons.
manual
We look at Tyler O’Neill and see the player from 2021 that hit .286, had 34 home runs, and won a gold glove. However, that Tyler O’Neill was an outlier. If you take out that one amazing year out of the equation, in the five other years he has averaged 62 games played, 8 home runs, and 4 stolen bases.
In 2021 he had an average of .286. The two years since, .228 and .242.
His slug percentage was .560 and then .392 and .396. The average MLB Slug this year is .411.
His OPS was .912 in 2021 and then .700 and .711 this year. The MLB average OPS is .730.
The numbers from this year and last year are more in line with the years prior to his amazing 2021 season. We should be looking at his performance over the five years rather than the one year. Those five years show an average player that can’t stay on the field.