This lineup construction would unleash the Cardinals offense and defense in 2024

Lineup vs. right-handed pitching

DH Brendan Donovan
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
LF Lars Nootbaar
RF Jordan Walker
SS Masyn Winn
CF Victor Scott II


Bench: UTL Tommy Edman, C Ivan Herrera, OF Alec Burleson, INF Matt Carpenter

Here we go! I teased some of the changes I'd make in the intro, but when the Cardinals are fully healthy, this is what I believe would maximize their offense and defense any given day, while also catering to the reality that they are not going to get rid of Carpenter any time soon.

Let's start with the lineup itself, and I'll address different roster changes as they come up in my line of thinking.

This is, for the most part, the lineup many of us envisioned they would have on Opening Day, so it's not necessarily groundbreaking (although who they are carrying on the bench and the lineup vs. left-handed pitching may surprise you).

Leading off here is Brendan Donovan, who is clearly the Cardinals' best lead-off option against right-handed pitching (you can see my in-depth breakdown here). Donovan is an elite on-base guy who continues to develop more power, and you want that kind of guy consistently getting on base in front of your heavy hitters (and following up and exciting bottom of the order).

Following up Donovan is the gauntlet of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, and Jordan Walker, the order of which I could see shifting throughout the season. There's a real argument for any of those guys to bat any place in that order, with Walker being someone we could see cement himself as a middle-of-the-order bat in the very near future.

Rounding out the order would be the two rookies of the roster, Masyn Winn and Victor Scott II, both of whom the Cardinals should not have high expectations for offensively this year, but have the potential to wreak havoc with the speed they possess. Getting close to league-average production from either offensively would be a huge win, but especially in the case of Scott, his speed will create massive problems for opposing pitchers as they face the top of the lineup again.

Let's talk about the defense though. First, construction gives the Cardinals plus-plus defenders at three positions in their lineup - third base, shortstop, and center field. Having defenders like Arenado, Winn, and Scott behind this pitching staff will go a long way toward run prevention. From there, guys like Goldschmidt and Nootbaar are good defenders, with an arguement to be had that Goldschmidt still may be a borderline Gold Glover at first base.

Gorman was only slightly below league average defensively last year, a major improvement from his really bad 2022 season. The Cardinals are hoping for a similar step of improvement from Walker this year, with Gorman potentially being league-average. Donovan is the placeholder designated hitter here, but there's a good chance he plays in the field almost every day, filling in at second base, third base, first base, and the corner outfield spots.

Contreras is a bit of a wild card here, as it seems like he's made some strides defensively this offseason, and we'll likely see a lot of Ivan Herrera behind the plate as well.

The two things you may notice here are Tommy Edman is on the bench and Dylan Carlson is not on the roster. I'll address Carlson briefly here and more extensively in the next slide, but if Carpenter was not on the roster, I'd certainly have Carlson on the bench. Again, it's extremely unlikely that the Cardinals cut ties with Carpenter, so I'm not going to do that here.

In the case of Edman, he is a very valuable player, and it's true that the Cardinals just handed him a two-year extension to buy out the remaining years of arbitration. What's also true is that long-term, he's the second-best shortstop behind Winn, third-best option for second base behind Gorman and Donovan, and second-best center field option behind Scott. If Scott begins the year in St. Louis and flourishes, then I think it relegates Edman to a reserve role.

Now, I do think Edman would play often, as he would be the primary backup at shortstop, second base, and in the outfield, and could be used as a defensive substitute as well. Edman almost becomes an overqualified utility man, with Burleson getting less playing time as a result and Carpenter virtually having no time in the field.

Part of the reason we can even have this conversation right now is because of Edman's health. The fact that he's likely out Opening Day, and potentially not even back until May or later, means that by the time he's ready to play, the team may be gelling and he might be without a clear starting role, at least against right-handed pitching.

In short, this lineup maximizes the offensive potential of this team while also creating one of the best defensive alignments possible, with a guy like Edman who can plug in with excellent defense anywhere off of the bench. Where I really think we see the club maximize its defense is against left-handed pitching though.

Lineup vs. left-handed pitching

2B Tommy Edman
1B Paul Goldschmidt
RF Jordan Walker
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
DH Nolan Gorman
LF Lars Nootbaar
SS Masyn Winn
CF Victor Scott II

Bench: UTL Brendan Donovan, C Ivan Herrera, OF Alec Burleson, INF Matt Carpenter

The major shift to this lineup is starting Tommy Edman over Brendan Donovan at second base (more on that in a moment) with Nolan Gorman shifting to designated hitter. This defensive lineup now has four plus-plus defenders in it, with three of them being up the middle, a huge difference from where the Cardinals were at in 2023.

If Dylan Carlson were on this roster, there'd be a strong argument for him to start against left-handed pitching, as he and Edman both have had a lot of success against lefties.

Carlson and Edman have carried pretty dramatic splits in their career. Carlson has a .672 OPS and 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in his career, while Edman isn't much better with a .703 OPS and 94 wRC+. But whenever they stack up against left-handed pitching, they are completely different players, with Carlson boasting a career .848 OPS and 135 wRC+ while Edman is a .803 OPS and 117 wRC+ guy against southpaws.

By inserting them into the lineup, Lars Nootbaar is the only guy in the lineup who you don't love the matchup for, which is why he is sliding down to 8th in the order. This also gives Edman a somewhat consistent role on the club, and then when you mix in the occasional outfield starts he'll get, and then the time he fills in at shortstop for Winn, he'll have more playing time than you'd expect from a reserve player.

For all of the talk that Gorman may struggle against left-handed pitching, he actually posted a .840 OPS and 130 wRC+ in those at-bats in 2023, albeit in just 86 plate appearances. Brendan Donovan is the one who's actually had a harder time against left-handed pitching, seeing his numbers drop to a .666 OPS and 102 wRC+ when facing a lefty.

Whenever the game gets past the 5th inning, the opposing manager is going to have to weigh the risks of potential pitching matchups. Bring in a right-handed pitcher to face Edman? The Cardinals can counter with Brendan Donovan, who has a career .801 OPS and 128 wRC+ against righties. You also have a weapon like Alec Burleson off the bench at all times, who thus far in Spring Training seems to be making good on the promise his bat provides.

Overall, the defense for this lineup is arguably the best it could possibly be from a position-to-position basis, something that really needs to be prioritized this year with their rotation. Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Miles Mikolas are all more on the pitch-to-contact end of things, and although Sonny Gray and Steven Matz have strikeout stuff, they both would still benefit from an improved defense behind them.

Recap

When taking a step back and looking at both lineups, there's a lot of promise baked in. Against right-handed pitching, the offense has an elite group one through seven in the order, with Winn and Scott providing some upside, albeit not guaranteed success, batting eight and ninth. Against, left-handed pitching, one through six is an elite group, with the seventh hitter of Nootbaar still being a great option in the lineup, with with his struggles against left-handed pitching. And once again, the promise with Winn and Scott is exciting to have batting at the bottom of the order.

The Cardinals maintain their offensive upside while also baking in some really helpful defense talent as well. To me, assuming Winn and Scott prove they are ready to play at the major league level, this is the lineup that sets St. Louis up for the most success possible in 2024.