These 5 aces the Cardinals passed on could have helped the club in 2023

Max Scherzer

MLB insider Robert Murray wrote about Max Scherzer and the Cardinals' mutual interest in one another last off-season before he ended up signing with the New York Mets. The Cardinals passed on handing him the lucrative deal that the Mets gave Scherzer, but it's also not the first time the Cardinals passed on the future Hall of Famer.

Two other times during Scherzer's career, the Cardinals had the inside track to bring the right-hander into their organization. Being from the St. Louis area, he was drafted by the Cardinals in the 43rd round back in 2003. Scherzer grew up a Cardinals fan, but with the desire to attend college, St. Louis was going to have to, in his words, "buy me out of my commitment". The Cardinals decided not to.

The second time the Cardinals passed on Scherzer was during the 2014-2015 off-season, which saw them get outbid by the Red Sox for the services of David Price. The Cardinals and Scherzer reportedly had mutual interest once again, but for whatever reason, the Cardinals did not compete with the Nationals' offer.

Although one can say the Cardinals just do not hand out contracts like that to pitchers, it's obvious they were willing to go to that kind of number with Price during the process. The Cardinals aren't afraid to spend big money on quality players, their worry, like all of baseball, is that the player will not perform to the dollar value of the contract. In the case of Scherzer, he is one of the few pitchers who had pitched above the value of not just one, but two mega deals that he got in free agency.

The Cardinals will once again have an opportunity to pursue Scherzer in free agency this next off-season, but at the end of the day, this club's World Series chances would be drastically different had they gone for him at any of these inflection points of his career.

Zach Wheeler

During the 2019 trade deadline, New York Mets starter Zach Wheeler was available in trades, with the rumored ask being one of the St. Louis Cardinals' young outfielders, Tyler O'Neill or Harrison Bader. Since Wheeler was going to be a rental for whoever acquired him, the club did not feel comfortable trading any of their controllable outfielders, nor their top prospects Dylan Carlson or Nolan Gorman, for Wheeler.

It likely would have been O'Neill or Bader plus some low-level prospects, but looking back on that deal, it would have been a steal for the Cardinals, especially if they decided to resign him that off-season. After rebounding in the second half of 2019, Wheeler has gone on to go 30-19 with a 2.82 ERA in 437.1 innings for the Philadelphia Phillies after signing a very affordable 5-year, $118 million deal.

Not only would Wheeler's presence most likely flip the 2022 Wild Card Series between the Cardinals and Phillies, but it also would have given St. Louis stability at the top of their rotation for 2023. Wheeler finished 2nd in Cy Young voting in 2021 and was basically the same guy again in 2022, making him one of the top pitchers in today's game.

The Cardinals had a ton of uncertainty facing their 2020 outfield with the impending free agency of Marcell Ozuna, so they were understandably hesitant to give up more outfielders. If they had traded O'Neill, or in my preference, Bader, maybe they would have held onto Randy Arozarena or Adolis Garcia. Not only do the Cardinals get an ace for their rotation, but now they probably retain a very high-level outfielder for their club.

Maybe St. Louis will look to swoop up Wheeler's teammate Aaron Nola in free agency next off-season, but I think we all wish that Wheeler was starting for the Cardinals in 2023.

Sandy Alcantara

If we want to get upset about the Cardinals refusing to trade away prospects for known talent, the Marcell Ozuna trade that saw them give away Sandy Alcantara is how you play devil's advocate for the risk involved in these kinds of deals.

Alcantara was the Cardinals' number six prospect in 2017, behind fellow pitching prospects Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver. Despite making his MLB debut that season, the club decided to package him and number 24 prospect Zac Gallen (more on him later) in a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, who refused to waive his no-trade clause. They then followed that up with a deal for Marcell Ozuna, who was coming off an MVP-caliber season.

For as awful of a trade as this turned out to be, most in baseball, including Cardinals fans, loved the deal at the time, as they were able to acquire a big bat for their lineup while holding onto prospects like Reyes, Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Carson Kelly, and more. But based on what we know now, the Cardinals gave away one of the most valuable arms in baseball that would have been their ace for 2023 and years to come.

In 2022, Alcantara won the NL Cy Young after going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA while leading all of baseball in innings pitched with 228.2. Alcantara is one of the few true workhorse aces left in today's game, making it even more painful to see him finding so much success in Miami.

To be fair, most believed Alex Reyes to be that guy, not Alcantara, so it's not like the Cardinals gave away a guy that everyone knew was going to be a stud. But still, having the 27-year-old in this rotation would completely change how the league views the Cardinals in 2023. Now, the same can be said about the other pitching prospect that got dealt in that deal

Zac Gallen

If it wasn't bad enough to let go of one ace in the Ozuna trade, 2022 saw Zac Gallen solidify himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball as well.

In 2020. Gallen finished 9th in Cy Young voting after posting a 2.75 ERA in 72 innings and after a down 2021, finished 5th in Cy Young voting after going 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 192 SO in 184 innings of work. Gallen had the 7th longest scoreless innings streak in the live ball era during the second half, not allowing a run for 44.1 innings straight.

It is clear that Gallen has the stuff and mentality to be the kind of ace that leads his club toward a World Series title. Gallen consistently goes up against some of the best teams in baseball in the NL West and rose to the occasion. At just 26 years old, Gallen has room to improve further and could be scary for a long time.

I'll leave you to dream for a moment about a rotation that features Alcantara, Gallen, Flaherty, Mikolas, and Wainwright...but on to the final ace the club missed out on.

Carlos Rodon

The last name on this list is the most recent name they decided to take a pass on. Now, it's hard to know how badly Carlos Rodon wanted to play in New York versus playing in other markets, but I think it's still pretty likely he would have come to St. Louis, had they made the best offer.

Toward the beginning of the off-season, I was pretty hesitant to go after Rodon at his price point. But it is just really hard to argue against just how good he has been the last two years, and how much of an upgrade he would have been to the Cardinals' rotation.

Since 2021, Rodon has gone 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA while averaging 155 innings and 211 SO a season. Rodon has been healthy the last two years, a workhorse, and strikeout machine, all things that the Cardinals really need from the top of their rotation.

Sure, it would have been a lot to pay for a starting pitcher, but that's just the cost of the market right now, and that will not be dropping any time soon. If the Cardinals want to have ace-level pitching beyond their initial club control, they'll have to hand out early extensions or pay up big time in free agency. The Cardinals missed out on Rodon this time, but they cannot afford to sit on the sidelines again comes to this next off-season.