These 4 Cardinals are being severely undervalued by ESPN's fantasy baseball rankings

The 2023 Cardinals season was dreadful. There's just no other way around it. After being heavily favored by most outlets to win the NL Central division after a historic 2022 run, the Cardinals disappointed all by falling apart and finishing last in the division instead of first. Many outside the organization are skeptical that the Cardinals will reclaim their position at the top of the NL Central, and deservedly so. But, the projections for several of their talented young players are drastically lower than they should be.

Site expert Josh Jacobs and I recently discussed Fangraphs' ZiPS projections on the Noot News Podcast, and we concluded that most players were undervalued. Today, we turn our attention to ESPN's fantasy baseball projections which have severely underrated many of the Cardinals' talented players.

As an avid fantasy baseball player and a three-time champion in my league of three seasons, I've already started to scour ESPN's projections and figure out which players could be value picks as I look to construct my own team. I doubt any player will exceed the value I got from 17th-round pick Shohei Ohtani in 2021, but it was shocking how low certain Cardinals players were in player rankings. The pitcher rankings were largely accurate for the Cardinals, so let's just focus on the position players.

For starters, let's take a look at ESPN's official ranking of notable Cardinals players just to see where things stand for now in the hitter rankings:

#40: Nolan Arenado

#42: Paul Goldschmidt

#84: Willson Contreras

#89: Lars Nootbaar

#101: Tommy Edman

#129: Jordan Walker

#176: Nolan Gorman

#196: Brendan Donovan

#201: Masyn Winn

Avid Cardinals fans can probably already see the problems with this list of position players. Since most forms of fantasy baseball don't count defensive stats it's definitely strange to see the glove-first Tommy Edman ranked above Walker or Gorman. But, let's dive into the numbers further.

#129: Jordan Walker

Sure, Tommy Edman's got positional flexibility at second base, shortstop, and in the outfield, but putting Walker over 25 spots below Edman is criminal. Walker was worth fewer head-to-head points last year, but that's because he didn't play the full season. His .276/. 342/.445 slashline amounted to a 114 OPS+ at just 21 years old, far exceeding the 91 OPS+ of Edman.

Of course, we're failing to take into account that Edman is a terrific defender, while Walker was one of the worst last year, but in most forms of fantasy baseball defense is valued extremely little or none at all. Purely from an offensive standpoint, Walker clears easily. But enough about Edman, who else is Walker behind?

Well, at 62nd Walker is over 65 spots behind Jung Hoo Lee, a Korean outfielder who's yet to see any Major League action. ESPN projects Walker to post a .779 OPS, down from his .783 OPS last season, but Lee is only projected at .710. While Lee probably won't strike out as much as Walker, which is a big deduction, Walker's power numbers should dwarf Lee's.

Speaking of strikeout rate, Walker is over 50 spots behind Reds "super-prospect" Elly De La Cruz. Again, De La Cruz put up better defensive numbers in 2023, but offensively was nowhere near Walker. They've also got comparable numbers in projections, so we can only guess why Walker's ranking is so low.

FanGraphs projects Walker to be the best amongst all Cardinals in wRC+, a much more reasonable prediction. Walker's ceiling is yet untapped, but he's been working hard to elevate the ball and even add to his already elite exit velocity numbers this offseason. The sky is the limit.

On draft day, when stuck deciding between Wilmer Flores, Jake Cronenworth, Thairo Estrada, Zack Gelof, and Jordan Walker, go with Walker. You won't regret it.

#176: Nolan Gorman

I thought the fantasy projections couldn't really get worse after leaving Walker out of the top 100, but here we are. In 2024, ESPN projects Gorman to slash .241/.316/.458/.774. Aside from a slight increase in batting average, all of these rate stats are down from last season.

Injuries aside, Gorman was one of the best power bats in the National League when right. And, the numbers only improved over time. He got off to a hot start posting an .878 OPS and .955 OPS in April and May respectively, but he completely forgot how to play baseball in June when he recorded a dreadful .439 OPS.

However, in the second half, he bounced back in a big way, slashing .252/.355/.519/.874. Projecting regression from such a young talented bat with so much upside makes no sense to me. Unless injuries derail Gorman's season completely, he should completely outpace his rates and counting stats from last season.

It's rare to get so much power from a second baseman, so he'll be extremely valuable in rotisserie leagues, but even in points-based play Gorman will provide more value than the average second baseman. Placing Gorman below Charlie Blackmon, Jake Burger, Brendan Rodgers, Zach Neto, and even Tyler O'Neill is simply not right at all. It's almost insulting that ESPN ranked O'Neill right above Gorman despite O'Neill's long track record of inconsistency and injuries.

At his peak, Gorman could reach levels similar to Kyle Schwarber, another massive power threat. However, Schwarber is ranked 28th amongst all position players and Gorman is ranked 176th. But, when comparing Schwarber's 122 OPS+ in 2023 to Gorman's 117 OPS+, we might not even be able to tell the difference.

#196: Brendan Donovan

I really wish I didn't play fantasy baseball in a league full of Cardinals fans, so I'd be able to exploit the value of these under-ranked players to the fullest. Sadly, my competition will understand Cardinal player values better than the average baseball fan, so I won't be able to draft Brendan Donovan in the last round. While Donovan doesn't have the positional flexibility in fantasy that he does in real life, only having eligibility for second base and outfield, it's ridiculous how low he's been ranked by ESPN.

He's projected to lose 30 OPS points, dropping from .781 in 2023 to .751 in 2024 despite making adjustments and improving drastically over the course of the season. For some reason, he's also only projected to take 259 at-bats this year, about 70 fewer than he had last year when he was shut down early in the second half due to an elbow injury.

I guess ESPN projects Donovan to be a bench bat for the Cardinals in 2024, which is completely incorrect. He'll make many starts at second base while Nolan Gorman fills in at DH, and his versatility allows him to see playing time in the outfield and corner infield positions when the veterans need a break from fielding. Not only will Donovan be an everyday player for the Cardinals, he will also probably bat leadoff.

Josh Jacobs broke down Donovan's midseason adjustments and swing decisions that propelled him to a new level offensively in an article recently, so I won't go too in-depth with his improvements here. But, Donovan will be ready to make an impact at the top of the Cardinals' order, so he shouldn't be slept on in the slightest.

Ranking Donovan below the likes of Maikel Garcia, Parker Meadows, Seth Brown, and Anthony Rendon shows that national media outlets still have no idea how good Donovan is at his best. Most of these players don't even merit a comparison to Donovan. I guess I'll end my article with that because just like Rendon, no habla inglés today.