The St. Louis Cardinals should trade these 2 young bats at the trade deadline

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For as much grief as we give the St. Louis Cardinals front office for how they have managed their roster over the last few years, there's a part of me that empathizes with them over one thing. No, I'm not giving them a pass on giving up so much young talent over the last few years, or even giving them a pass on how they've mismanaged the opportunities they give to young players.

Where I empathize with them is on this - it is really, really hard to choose which of the young bats to commit to, and which bats may need to move on from.

Want proof of this? Go check on a poll I ran on the Redbird Rants Twitter account recently. I asked voters if the Cardinals would live to regret trading each of these players individually: Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, and Tommy Edman.

The only player who was voted on as "No, they would not regret trading him" was Tommy Edman. And yet, I know of some very smart baseball people who think getting rid of Edman would be the worst thing the Cardinals could do.

The same can be true of each of the other young bats. Everyone has their own opinions on Nootbaar, Gorman, Donovan, Edman, and Carlson. No one thinks of those players are "bad", but there is no consensus on who the most valuable players are from that group. I can see why the Cardinals are having the same issues deciding that for themselves.

I myself have gone back and forth on who the Cardinals need to hold onto and who they need to shop around to improve their starting pitching. I think I've finally landed the plane on what I believe they should do, though.

This conversation hinged on multiple things. First, this is a painful process. No one is going to be able to agree on who the Cardinals need to commit to and who they need to be willing to let go of. And there is risk involved with each of these players. Some of the guys I am going to say they should keep are less "valuable" players than the ones I am going to say they should deal. Why? Because they have to trade talent to get talent.

When it comes to this trade deadline, yes the performance of players they let go of will matter in terms of how we evaluate their decisions. But what is even more important is how the guys they keep perform, and how the guys they acquire perform. For example, if Matthew Liberatore was a budding starter in this league in the vein of a Logan Gilbert, it may still be painful that they let go of Randy Arozarena, but it wouldn't be as big of a miss. The Cardinals need to maximize the value of both the guys they keep and the guys they deal, and I think this is the best way to do so.

In the next few slides, I am going to make an argument for how they can maximize their roster in order to bring back the best possible talent for their roster as well as maintain a strong offense moving forward. Buckle up, as this is going to be a wild ride for all of us.

This is how the Cardinals can maximize their roster at the trade deadline

The Cardinals should trade Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson, hold onto Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Tommy Edman

If you asked me a week ago, I would have said Nolan Gorman would be the central trade chip I would use at this deadline, and one of Dylan Carlson or Tommy Edman should be used to acquire pitching as well. I've changed my opinion on this a lot, and let me explain why.

I want to reiterate this though, this is all dependent on what kind of value the Cardinals can bring back for each of these players. According to reporting from Derrick Goold, the Cardinals have received a lot of calls on Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar, and there has also been interest reported in Dylan Carlson from the New York Yankees, among other teams. These are the guys people around the league want, which means they will bring back a good amount of value in a trade.

Now, it has also been reported that the Cardinals are shooting down calls on Nootbaar, Edman, and Jordan Walker. I agree on not shopping Walker, but I think every name on this list, except for Brendan Donovan, should be available for the right price. No, they shouldn't trade everyone, but I think they should be open to deals on anyone not named Walker or Donovan.

So why did I identify Nootbaar and Carlson as the two guys worth moving?

First, I believe Nootbaar is the guy who can bring a difference-maker into St. Louis for their rotation. Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson may get you intriguing prospects back, but they aren't going to bring in an established arm with control like Nootbaar can. I believe that Nootbaar can be the centerpiece in a deal for someone like Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller of the Mariners. The value those arms could bring to the Cardinals is something they desperately need.

There is an argument that Gorman could bring back that kind of return, but right now, I am not seeing that there is the same level of interest around the league in Gorman as there is in Nootbaar. Also, Gorman's profile as a hitter is something the Cardinals do not have a replacement for internally, while Brendan Donovan offers a very similar profile offensively as Nootbaar. The Cardinals also have names like new first-round pick Chase Davis and top prospect Victor Scott II coming soon, so there is long-term outfield help as well.

Carlson still has value though, and it appears like a package from the Yankees headlined by right-handed prospect Clayton Beeter, who just appeared in the MLB Futures Game and would be ready to be in the rotation by 2024, would be on the table from the Yankees.

For sake of argument, let's say the Cardinals get Logan Gilbert and Clayton Beeter for essentially Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson (although I think the Cardinals would give up a little bit more in the Gilbert deal and get a bit more back from the Yankees in the Beeter deal), they've now added two cost-controlled arms to their starting rotation for the 2024 season. More on that later.

What does that leave the Cardinals with position player-wise? Outside of their veteran core, the Cardinals would still have Gorman, Donovan, Edman, and Walker, along with Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn, as well as options like Juan Yepez, Moises Gomez, and Luken Baker if they don't end up trading them.

I'll put together a lineup on the new slide, but that's still a strong position player group, and it clears some log jams the club has as well. On top of that, it opens up a ton of flexibility for the Cardinals this offseason.

John Mozeliak himself has referenced how there is "a lot coming off of the books", and that the Cardinals will have to invest dollars into free-agent pitching. Well, if they have Mikolas, Gilbert, Beeter, and Matz, along with guys like Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, and potentially Tink Hence in the wings, it makes it a lot easier for the club to invest more money into higher-end pitching talent, rather than spreading the money out to mid-tier starters.

This also creates flexibility for the Cardinals to add a true center fielder, something they have really lacked since losing Harrison Bader, bring in a bat for the DH spot, or invest even more resources into their rotation or bullpen.

Let's take a look at how the roster could shake out next year.

Potential Cardinals roster in 2024

Note: the lineup and rotation do not include any assets the Cardinals will get back in Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and Tyler O'Neill trades as well, and those players could also factor in here as well.

Lineup

1. LF Brendan Donovan
2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
3. RF Jordan Walker
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. C Willson Contreras
6. 2B Nolan Gorman
7. DH Alec Burleson (or a veteran free-agent bat)
8. SS Maysn Winn
9. CF Tommy Edman (or Cody Bellinger/Harrison Bader)

Rotation

1. Aaron Nola/Blake Snell/Marcus Stroman
2. Logan Gilbert
3. Miles Mikolas
4. Sonny Gray/Michael Wacha/Alex Wood
5. Clayton Beeter

Depth: Steven Matz, Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Tink Hence

Let's take a peek at this lineup first. Losing Lars Nootbaar is hard, but overall, the Cardinals maintain a very productive lineup with room to improve off where it has been this year.

Brendan Donovan is coming into his own at the plate, Nolan Gorman would be even more developed, and hopefully a bit more consistent, as a hitter, Jordan Walker would be in year two of his growth, and Alec Burleson can be a nice part of your lineup, especially when he's being relied on as a bottom third of the order bat.

As the offseason plays out, the Cardinals could utilize Tommy Edman as a trade piece for more pitching, and then invest in a new center fielder, such as Cody Bellinger or Harrison Bader. They could also make Edman their primary utility guy and still bring in that new center fielder. Or the club could get a bat to rotate in at DH, but I do think that is somewhat unlikely with it appearing like Contreras may DH more next year.

Having acquired both Gilbert and Beeter, along with whatever other prospects/controllable big-league talent they get for the other guys they deal, the Cardinals have the flexibility to invest in the top end of the pitching market. With names like Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman, and Julio Urias all available, the Cardinals have no excuse not to swing big this time. Even with a big addition like that, they would still have the financial flexibility to add another veteran arm or some of those offensive upgrades I referenced.

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The Cardinals' roster needs a major shakeup. Parting with Nootbaar and Carlson may be the best way to get legit talent in return while also not decimating your lineup long-term.

But it's not the only way.

I wouldn't blame the Cardinals for going in other directions if they so choose. What I would find confusing is if, by the time Spring Training rolls around next season, they haven't moved any of their young assets that continue to be stuck in log jam situations. Depth is never a bad thing, but redundancy is when you have significant weaknesses that could be addressed.

Check out my weekly podcast "Redbird Rundown" on Spotify or Apple Podcasts as well as follow me on Twitter @joshjacoMLB for more Cardinals content

Next. 5 trade destinations for Carlson. 5 trade destinations for Dylan Carlson. dark

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