The St. Louis Cardinals need changes to their rotation

Insanity is, as we know, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting disappointing results.  Often attributed to Albert Einstein, that quote actually originated with Rita Mae Brown in her book Sudden Death.

It’s a history lesson that the St. Louis Cardinals need to internalize.

I’m on record, along with probably every Cardinals fan in existence, that this team needs to find a true ace for next year’s rotation. Whether it is via free agency (unlikely, as nice as that would be) or trade (probably unlikely, though it shouldn’t be), the Cards need someone who inspires fear in the opposing team when they see him on the upcoming schedule.

If the team fails to add to the top of the rotation, though, then they need to implement Rita Mae Brown’s lesson and try something new: let the young guns battle it out in a true competition for any open rotation slots.

If the Redbirds open 2025 with a rotation of Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn, and Steven Matz, it not only will be the definition of insanity, it will be a clear message to this loyal fanbase that expectations for next year should be low. And what would be a third straight year out of the playoffs (and six in the last ten) should be unacceptable.

The way I see it, there should be at least one open rotation spot next year.  Gray and Fedde are locked into spots. Andre Pallante, the team’s best pitcher since he rejoined the rotation, deserves to enter spring training as a de facto member as well. And although I acknowledge this is likely a minority opinion, I’d be fine with the Cardinals picking up Kyle Gibson’s option. He’s been steady if unspectacular and slots in as an acceptable fourth or fifth starter.

That would leave one slot (which of course will change as injuries and underperformance are a given).  As I said last month, it should be a true ace occupying the open position. But if that fails to happen, it is time to turn that spot into a true and open competition, with Michael McGreevy getting the first look.

Lynn, who like Gibson has a team option on his contract, is one of my favorite Cardinals. I’m glad he had a second go-round with the team and it sure was nice seeing him in Cardinal Red again. But he looks to be at the end of the line.

Mikolas isn’t the answer either. I’ll always believe his contributions to the team have been underappreciated and I’ll never truly understand the blowback he sometimes gets for trying to be more of a vocal leader for the rotation the last few years.  (Isn’t that what we want?)  But he has simply not been effective often enough the last two years. Yes, he’s under contract for another year. Yes, it may be near-impossible to offload that contract. But if the team wants to compete next year, it needs to find a way to replace him in the rotation.

It’s also time for the team to acknowledge that Steven Matz belongs in the bullpen and only the bullpen. He has had some encouraging starts since signing with the Cardinals in 2021.  But it is abundantly clear to everyone other than the front office that he simply cannot be relied upon. Commit to Matz in the bullpen.

Instead, the team should open a competition in spring training among the prospects to see who wants to claim a starting spot. First dibs should go to McGreevy, who has done nothing but impress during his three appearances in the majors this year. But let Quinn Mathews, Zach Thompson, Gordon Graceffo and others get their chance.

Does that mean expensive contracts might need to sit or relieve? Yes.

But that’s simply the cost of restoring faith in this team.