The good, the bad, and the ugly of arbitration extensions for John Mozeliak

What do Matt Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Stephen Piscotty, and Paul DeJong all have in common aside from being former Cardinals? Each player was given an extension to buy out his arbitration years.

Buying out arbitration years is like watching two double-edged swords meet head-to-head. For the teams, it's a bit of a gamble; they may save money in the long run if the player continues to develop well and beat out market value, but the team will be paying more than if they had continued to go through arbitration with that player.

For the player, he gets financial assurance for many years, but he could be sacrificing some money down the road if he were to continue to rise in performance. With Paul DeJong's extension having expired and Tommy Edman recently getting his contract extension, I wanted to take a look back at the good, the bad, and the ugly of arbitration extensions during John Mozeliak's tenure.

Unsurprisingly (possibly), John Mozeliak has actually done quite well in the aggregate when it comes to extending players during their arbitration eligibility. Players such as Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Matt Carpenter paid dividends after having their arb years bought out.

The chart below includes players who were given extensions, the year in which the extension was given, the terms of their contracts, their fWAR totals during their extension, and how many years of arbitration were bought out at the time. I'm only including extensions since Mozeliak's promotion to the head of baseball operations in October of 2007.

Mozeliak has given out eleven contract extensions to players during their arbitration years. Some have been extremely beneficial for the team, others have been so-so, and a couple have been ugly. Let's take a look at each of these and break down the after-effects of the arbitration extension.

The Good

Every player sans one had a positive fWAR total after being given a contract extension. That's good! The key to arbitration contracts is beating market value. For a large portion of these contracts, one Win Above Replacement varied in value from $6 million to $10 million. That's where it gets dicey. Was there surplus value provided by the player after signing his contract?

There are some obvious good contracts there. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Matt Carpenter, and Kolten Wong all provided great seasons after their extensions. Molina signed him after showing some offensive promise in 2007 (.275/.340/.368 slash line). Molina's defense was also starting to shine. During his contract, Yadi made it to three All-Star Games, received three Gold Glove Awards, and he even received MVP votes in 2009, not to mention a World Series victory in 2011.

Adam Wainwright signed his extension after cementing himself as a true starting pitcher in 2007. He started thirty-two games the year before his extension, and he only improved from there. During his extension, Waino went to one All-Star game (Tommy John held him out of the 2011 season), he placed third in Cy Young voting in 2009 and second in 2010, and his ERA was never higher than 3.20 during his contract.

The recently returned Matt Carpenter provided plenty of excess value during his arbitration extension. Carp received one of the longest extensions, and he provided the most value of anyone on this list. He made it to All-Star games during his contract, and he received MVP votes in 2015 and 2018. Carp led the league in doubles in 2015, and he was 30th in all of baseball in fWAR during the length of his contract.

Kolten Wong is the final "good" player to have received an extension during his arbitration years. Wong received a contract extension soon after his 25th birthday in 2016. Before his extension, he placed third in Rookie of the Year voting, but he was otherwise steady on both sides of the ball. His defense was his primary benefit, but he could hold his own on the basepaths and in the batter's box. His 2016 season was underwhelming (1.3 fWAR), but Wong would go on to receive two Gold Gloves and even see some down-ballot MVP votes in 2019. Overall, he accumulated 11.2 fWAR throughout the course of his contract.

The Bad

Now, these contracts aren't terrible. In fact, the team and player probably broke even in the end. Neither side saw a significant advantage with the contract extension. Players like Carlos Martinez and Paul DeJong provided adequate value after inking their extensions, but they both fell off pretty quickly after getting a payday.

Paul DeJong received his arbitration extension after only one year in Major League Baseball. He placed second in Rookie of the Year voting, and John Mozeliak had seen enough to buy out the remaining arb years for the shortstop. His sophomore season didn't compare to his rookie year, but DeJong looked to put it all together in 2019; his K rate dropped while his walk rate rose, his slugging was at a career-high, and his defense was still premium. Altogether, DeJong tallied 3.7 fWAR that year.

The remainder of his contract is clogged up by high strikeout rates, an inability to get on base, and a dropoff in defensive prowess. DeJong was traded this past deadline to the Toronto Blue Jays for Minor League pitcher Matt Svanson. DeJong showed some promise early in his career, but he only had one good year during his six-year extension.

The other "bad" arbitration extension given out during Mozeliak's tenure would be the one given to Carlos Martinez in 2017. Martinez's extension was one in a long line of extensions between 2013 and 2019. He signed for five years and $51 million. The final three years of arbitration were bought out in addition to his first two years of free agency.

Martinez was fresh off back-to-back 3.0+-fWAR seasons with the Cardinals, and he would repeat that performance in the year immediately after signing his extension. The reason Carlos belongs in this category is the plummet he had after the 2018 season. Martinez averaged just over 1.1 fWAR during the length of his contract, and he even had a negative season in 2020. He was supposed to be the team's ace of the future, but after three strong seasons in 2015-2017, Martinez was never the same.