The good, the bad, and the ugly for Cardinals prospects in the Arizona Fall League

The Arizona Fall League is a five-week league that takes place every October. It doesn't work like regular minor-league baseball, however. Organizations don't have affiliate teams. Instead, they send a specific group of seven players. These players are then paired with the groups sent by several other teams to form one of the AFL's six teams. Anyone within an organization is eligible, though these spots are usually reserved for players with significant upside. Often, you may see players who missed time during the regular season.

For the 2023 season, the Cardinals selected RP Edwin Nunez, RP Andre Granillo, SP Cooper Hjerpe, SP Tekoah Roby, OF Victor Scott II, C Jimmy Crooks III, and SS Jeremy Rivas. This is a really interesting crop of players with some big names. Perhaps no other prospect in the organization raised his stock in 2023 as much as Victor Scott II did. He stole 93 bases for Springfield and Memphis during the regular season and flashed elite defense in CF. Roby and Hjerpe are two of the team's most exciting pitching prospects. Roby was acquired in a midseason trade while Hjerpe was selected in the first round of the 2022 MLB Amateur draft. Both have shown immense promise and could fit in at the front of the Cardinals' rotation within a few years. However, both missed time in 2023 with injuries, prompting the Cardinals to assign them to the fall league.

The Arizona Fall League is full of prospects to watch. Sometimes, it can jumpstart a failing career. Just last year, Connor Thomas enjoyed an incredible run, although he failed to capitalize on that momentum by posting a disastrous 5.53 ERA with Memphis this season. That's exactly what Jeremy Rivas is looking to do. Though he's still just 20, he's in his third season with the organization and has struggled with each assignment. Other times, the fall league can highlight a player coming off a strong season. Edwin Nunez enjoyed a fantastic season between Peoria and Palm Beach. A good fall league run could portend a more aggressive assignment in 2023, perhaps starting with Springfield.

Today, we'll break down each player's performance and discuss how they've impacted the organization's plans for 2024. The performances will be broken into three tiers: the good, the bad, and the ugly!

The Good

RP Edwin Nunez

Edwin Nunez enjoyed a strong 2023 season. Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic prior to the 2021 season, Nunez has long been seen as a raw arm with the talent to someday impact the big league club. His first two seasons were disastrous. He pitched to an abysmal 5.67 ERA, splitting time between Palm Beach and the Florida Complex League. Then, in 2023, he was awesome. Nunez dominated Palm Beach and earned a promotion to Peoria, where he was even better.

The young reliever pitched well this fall. Nunez appeared in 8 games, recording 10.2 innings pitched and allowing just three earned runs. That works out to a 2.53 ERA, a respectable mark for a young prospect facing much more advanced hitters. He only struck out six hitters, but that slight disappointment is offset by his strong control, as he issued just four free passes. While the sample size is low, this is an encouraging development for Nunez. He's demonstrated that he's capable of getting mature hitters out. The AZFL is generally composed of A+ and AA position players, though teams have sent hitters from all levels. Nunez has likely proven to the Cardinals that he can handle AA. Expect to see the 21-year-old reach that level by the middle of 2024 at the latest.

RP Andre Granillo

Granillo has been with the Cardinals for just three seasons, but he's already 23. Drafted out of college in 2021, Granillo reached Memphis late in the 2023 season. After a strong 2022, he seemed poised to jump onto the Cardinals' MLB radar. Unfortunately, he took a sizable step back in 2023. He was terrible with Memphis and was less than viable with Springfield. The AZFL has offered a nice chance to reset. He's also found himself in some high-leverage situations with Scottsdale.

Granillo posted a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings. He struck out 14, a very encouraging sign, especially when considering that he walked just three opponents. He allowed too many hits, but the sample size is incredibly small, so it's difficult to really dig into that number. Granillo enjoyed a successful showing this fall and should have at least bought himself some time with this performance. I'd be surprised if he's not back with Memphis in April. Perhaps the gaudy numbers could be parlayed into an opportunity with the major league club.

CF Victor Scott II

Scott is a highlight machine. He plays otherworldly defense and just stole 94 bases. He's going to be really fun to watch in St. Louis. Fortunately for Cardinals fans, we don't have to wait. He did amazing stuff this fall in the AZFL. Scott also caught up with Josh Jacobs on an episode of the Noot News podcast earlier this year to talk about the progress he's made. Cardinals fans should be excited about his performance in the AZFL.

Scott, still just 22, must have loved his time in Arizona. He hit .286 with a .388 OBP. This is right in line with what he's done throughout the Cardinals' system. He also slugged .417, which closely resembles his time with Memphis. However, he's now striking out less. Scott drew 12 walks in just 99 PAs (84 ABs)! Scott struck out just eight times. It's impressive that he's managed to cut down on his strikeouts without sacrificing power or average.

He also swiped 18 bags in just 23 games. As with any AZFL performance, the sample size is small. But, this fits Scott's overall performance, both in 2023 and before. He's always run high OBPs and he's always stolen a lot of bases. It seems likely that Scott will be patrolling Busch's expansive outfield sooner rather than later.

The Bad

SP Inohan Paniagua

Though there may be depth issues at the upper levels, the lower levels are full of intriguing arms. Paniagua is one of these arms. In 2022 the young righthander broke out, posting a 2.81 ERA across three levels. He racked up 145 strikeouts in 137.2 innings, putting himself firmly on the organizational radar. Unfortunately, he took. a sizable step back in 2023. His ERA jumped almost two full points and he failed to make the jump to AA. Much of the ineffectiveness can be attributed to injury. Paniagua appeared in just 14 games, pitching only 48 innings. He continued to generate strikeouts at a high level but exhibited uncharacteristically wild control. The Cardinals hadn't seen enough and assigned him to the AZFL.

Paniagua's trip through the fall league resembled his 2023 season. He treaded water but failed to distinguish himself. His strikeout rates remained strong (17 in 16.2 innings) and he managed to cut down on the walks (6 in 16.2 innings), but Paniagua still pitched to a 4.86 ERA. The Cardinals are undoubtedly pleased by the improved control, and that's the major takeaway from this stretch. However, poor run prevention may result in a less aggressive assignment for 2024. Whether Paniagua starts at AA or not, expect him to reach Springfield by the end of the 2024 season.

SP Cooper Hjerpe

Cooper Hjerpe was selected by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2022 draft. The lefty is widely regarded as a high-ceiling talent with the potential to someday pitch near the front of a competitive rotation. The Cardinals need him to realize that potential within the next few years to continue contending. Hjerpe's first season in the minors was encouraging. He appeared in ten games (eight starts) and pitched a total of 41 innings. Across those frames, he compiled an ERA of 3.51 and struck out 51 hitters. Like Paniagua, his biggest problem was his inability to remain healthy. Hjerpe missed a large portion of the season. Thankfully, he was healthy enough for fall ball.

In the AZFL, Hjerpe held his own. Perhaps "bad" is unfair. His performance, like Paniagua's, was middling. He did some really good things (like striking out 15 hitters in 8.1 frames) and he did some bad things (like walking 6 across those same 8.1 innings). Ultimately, he posted a 4.32 ERA. The Cardinals will likely want to see him improve his control next year. Until he does so, he may remain in the lower levels. However, it must be noted that the Cardinals have chosen to aggressively promote some pitching prospects. It's difficult to say with any certainty how they'll proceed with Hjerpe, but I predict he'll reach the AA level by the midway point of 2024. He may even pitch in Memphis down the stretch.