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The Cardinals need a new trade deadline strategy
If the St. Louis Cardinals are going to turn things around for 2024, Cliff Williams thinks they need a whole new strategy.
Every year as the trade deadline approaches I get excited. It’s a chance to improve the team. New energy. A boost to get us into the playoffs. And then I remember that our representative sitting at the trading table is the group’s designated driver.
He is the one that will maybe have just a sip while he watches everyone else fully participating and having fun.
This year I have seen the Cardinals linked to Shane Bieber, Lucas Giolito, and Alex Cobb among others. I am not very hopeful that we see any of them.
If this team was just a player away I might get excited. Giolito and Cobb would both be rentals as they are free agents at the end of the year. While they might be nice additions and could help get us to the playoffs, I doubt they would make us World Series winners and we would be in the same position next year. That to me is not worth the trade capital.
What if the Cardinals tried something new?
Would you be willing to give up a chance to “maybe” make the playoffs this year for a solid chance to not just be in the World Series next year, but to win the World Series?
Follow along and see if you would be bold enough to make these moves.
Here is how the Cardinals could drastically shake up their strategy
Paul Goldschmidt for 2 Prospects
I know this isn’t a hot take but it really does make sense to trade Paul Goldschmidt now. The Cardinals very seldom get high-value players in a trade at the deadline because they are unwilling to trade high-value players. Well, he is our highest-value player.
He will be 36 years old in September and 37 at the end of his contract. Albert Pujols was younger when his Cardinal contract came up for renewal. He is getting paid $26 million this year and next.
Will Leitch in an article on MLB.Com speculated that two top 100 prospects would be a fair return. Since we are just having fun here let’s go with that.
OUT: Paul Goldschmidt
IN: Two top 100 prospects
Payroll: Save $26M
Shane Bieber for Tyler O’Neill and a top-100 prospect.
This would be similar to the Bader/Montgomery trade last year.
Bieber has been rumored to be dealt for quite some time now. His salary next year would be only 10M.
O’Neill has a salary this year of $4.9M and is still arbitration-eligible next year. Let’s assume next year he gets the same salary. He has pretty much worn out his welcome here and Cleveland has a need in the outfield. I think a one-for-one swap would work, but let's sweeten the deal a bit and add a prospect.
OUT: Tyler O’Neill, 1 top 100 prospect
IN: Shane Bieber
Payroll: Add $5M
Dylan Cease for Ivan Herrera and Brendan Donovan and a prospect
Cease has had a bit of an off year but he did come in second in AL Cy Young voting last year. Moving him to a more pitcher-friendly park could work wonders. He has two more years (2024, 2025) of club control. The salary is $5.7M.
Herrera is stuck behind Contreras and is probably ready to play now. The White Sox starting catcher is 34 years old and will be a free agent at the end of the year so the Sox get their new starting catcher for next year.
I hate to give up Donovan because I love how he plays but we need another pitcher more. Remember, you have to give to get.
Out: Ivan Herrera, Brendan Donovan, one prospect
In: Dylan Cease
Payroll: Add $4.3M
Jack Flaherty - Triston Casas and 1 top 100 prospect.
It is a well-known fact that the Cardinals would love to move on from Flaherty. His contract is up at the end of the year and there is little chance we will sign him at the $10M market cost that Spotrac estimates it will take.
Casas will make the minimum and he has been a disappointment this year. He was a highly-regarded prospect that could at least share time at first base if not take over completely if we don’t have Goldy.
Out: Jack Flaherty
In: Triston Casas, one prospect.
Payroll: Save $928,000
What would the results look like?
Others I would like to move but not sure there would be any takers would be Steven Matz and Paul DeJong. They could be nice throw-ins if we need to add to these trade packages. I could see Dylan Carlson may also be added. Whatever it takes to get these trades done.
So what have we done here?
Players out: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Brendan Donovan, Jack Flaherty
Prospects out: Ivan Herrera, plus 2 top 100 prospect
Players in: Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Triston Casas
Prospects in: 3 top 100 prospects
Payroll saved with these trades: $17,628,000
Additional payroll coming off the books at the end of this year:
Adam Wainwright - $17.5M
Jordan Montgomery - $10M
Paul DeJong - $4.3
Chris Stratton - $2.8
Drew VerHagen - $2.75
Jordan Hicks - $1.8
Total - $39.15M
Payroll to work within 2024: $56.7M. What to do with all that money?
I want Julio Urias. He is a free agent after this year. Spotrac has his market value listed at 8 years for $192M or $24M per year. Done.
That leaves $15M on the books for improving the bench and rebuilding the bullpen. And we net one extra top 100 Prospect.
This would be my team next year if I could wave my magic wand.
THIS YEAR | POSITION | 2024 ROSTER |
|---|---|---|
Jordan Montgomery | SP | Julio Urias |
Jack Flaherty | SP | Shane Bieber |
Miles Mikolas | SP | Dylan Cease |
Adam Wainright | SP | Miles Mikolas |
Matthew Liberatore | SP | Matthew Liberatore/Tink Hence/Gorden Graceffo |
Chris Stratton | RP | Replacement |
Drew VerHagen | RP | Replacement |
Genisis Cabrera | RP | Genisis Cabrera |
Andre Pallante | RP | Andre Pallante |
Steven Matz | RP | Steven Matz |
Giovanny Gallegos | CL | Giovanny Gallegos |
Jordan Hicks | CL | Replacement |
Ryan Helsley | CL | Ryan Helsley |
Wilson Contreras | C | Wilson Contreras |
Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | Triston Casas(L) , Luken Baker (R) |
Nolan Gorman | 2B | Nolan Gorman |
Nolan Arenado | 3B | Nolan Arenado |
Paul DeJong | SS | Masyn Winn |
Jordan Walker | RF | Jordan Walker |
Tommy Edman | CF | Tommy Edman |
Lars Nootbaar | LF | Lars Nootbaar |
This gets me three pitchers I feel pretty good about if we make it to the World Series. The lineup, if playing as they should, will still have power, speed, and a very good defense.
manual
Please let me know what you think. I am pretty sure that none of this will happen but it's fun to play GM for the day. What would you change?
Next. Cardinals all time lineup. Cardinals' All-Time Lineup based on WAR. dark