The Cardinals missed big on Bryce Harper. They’re about to miss big on Shohei Ohtani

On March 2, 2019, Bryce Harper shook the baseball world when he signed a 13-year $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. This contract was the largest ever given out to any MLB player at the time and was initially viewed as an overpay by some who viewed Harper as overrated, especially after a “down” year in 2018. Of course, the Cardinals never considered giving Harper such a contract, but today, the front office and many Cardinals fans likely look back on that decision with regret. With much more lucrative megadeals given to superstars such as Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer, Harper’s contract looks more and more like a bargain.

Cardinals fans saw firsthand what Harper could do when he slugged a home run in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series, ending the careers of Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina in heartbreaking fashion. Harper has shown his excellence as a winning ballplayer slashing .285/.384/.633 for a whopping 1.017 OPS in the Postseason, and despite a torn UCL limiting him to DH and now first base, fans all across MLB wish their team had given Harper the same contract he signed with Philadelphia.

The 2023 season showed the Cardinals why their old spending philosophy of not going after top starting pitching talent was a mistake, leading the front office to target top starters this offseason. Bryce Harper is showing the Cardinals why their philosophy of not spending on top position player talent might also be a mistake. So surely they’ll learn from that mistake, right? When another Harper-caliber free agent hits the market they’ll be involved right? Well, no. The next generational, Harper-like free agent is available this offseason and the Cardinals have shown no intention to pursue him: Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani the Hitter

Comparing Ohtani to Harper directly is a bit disingenuous. While Harper’s contract was the largest ever signed at the time, Ohtani’s contract will probably be over $100 million more. After all, Bryce Harper is not also a Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher. However, according to Jim Bowden of the Athletic, Ohtani may receive a very similar contract to Harper. Bowden predicts Ohtani will receive a 10-year, $477 million contract. On the surface, that's close to double Harper's AAV, but when counting Ohtani's pitching there's more to the story. A healthy Ohtani will serve as a DH all 10 years and pitch 9 of the 10 years. If we split the $477 million into 19 years, that's an AAV of around $25 million, which is less than Harper's.

With Ohtani’s torn UCL leaving him unable to pitch in 2024 and limited defensive flexibility as a DH, Ohtani will play a very similar role to Harper next year. Bowden didn't give exact numbers for his projected contract, but it's likely Ohtani would make $27 million in his first year and $50 million in each of the rest. Harper is making $26 million next year so it's a perfect comparison. Ohtani’s career .922 OPS and 148 OPS+ correspond very similarly to Harper’s .912 OPS and 143 OPS+. In his first 6 seasons in Washington, Harper posted a much lower strikeout rate, but Ohtani significantly out-slugged Harper and has shown an elite power-speed combination.

The online discourse is prevalent. "Add Harper to a lineup that includes established All-Stars in Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras, developing sluggers in Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker, and the ever-toolsy Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan, and you have the best lineup in all of baseball." With a glove-first Masyn Winn having shown legitimate power and offensive promise in Triple-A, adding Harper provides a lineup where every starter has legitimate All-Star potential. And the same can be said for Shohei Ohtani.

Sure, it’s impossible to compare Ohtani’s success in the Postseason with Harper’s, as Shohei hasn’t appeared in a single Postseason game in Anaheim, but the 2023 World Baseball Classic has shown that Shohei Ohtani shines brightest on the biggest stage. In 7 games, Ohtani hit .435/.606/.739 to a 1.345 OPS. In 3 appearances on the mound, he shone just as brightly, pitching to a 1.86 ERA  and 0.72 WHIP while striking out his teammate Mike Trout to secure a third WBC title for Japan. That is a small sample size, but the Classic cemented Ohtani as a true winning player despite not having a single Postseason appearance.

Of course, John Mozeliak and the Cardinals know the focus this offseason is "pitching, pitching, pitching" but he also noted at the Trade Deadline that the Cardinals would not "ignore a position player that is uber great." Well, Ohtani will be the best hitter available this offseason, and if the Cardinals play their hand correctly, they'll still have plenty of payroll to use on pitching if they only pay Ohtani $27 million next year. And lest we forget, Ohtani the pitcher will return in 2025.

Ohtani the Pitcher

A healthy Ohtani would be by far the most attractive starting pitcher on the market for the Cardinals’ needs. He is able to pitch deep into games when necessary, has better strikeout stuff than anyone else on the market (career K/9 of 11.4), and at age 29 is amidst his reign of dominance on the mound, posting a 2.70 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 156 ERA+ since his unanimous MVP campaign in 2021. When compared to the available MLB-proven talent in Nola, Snell, Gray, and Montgomery, Ohtani is the best choice in nearly every facet. Sure he's only able to pitch every six days instead of every five, but the Cardinals would have enough intriguing options to fill that during the regular season.

Unfortunately, Ohtani's UCL injury has left him unable to pitch in 2024. On the bright side, Ohtani did not need to undergo a second Tommy John Surgery, so his recovery process should be much easier this time. It's expected he will make a full recovery to pitching by 2025, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's able to return as a high-leverage reliever come Postseason time. Sure, there is more risk in Ohtani than in other available starters who are healthy, but he's returned from elbow injuries before with no signs of decline. As Jeff Passan wrote, "Doubt him at your peril."

The risk involved in Ohtani's pitching has also been built into his contract projections. As we established previously, Ohtani the pitcher will be signed for 9 years with an AAV of $25 million. According to Bowden, here are projections for the other top starters the Cardinals may target:

Yes, Ohtani has more years and more money than each of the other starters listed, but his AAV is significantly lower than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a starter with no Major League experience, and comparable to Montgomery, Nola, and Snell. I love Yamamoto as an option, but if he's going to be $5 million more expensive per year than Ohtani, I'd choose Ohtani without question. When compared to Ohtani, Montgomery's strikeout numbers are far too low, Snell is incapable of eating innings, and Nola's regression in 2023 is too big a cause for concern. Sonny Gray is definitely a reliable and cheaper choice, but as we established on the Noot News Podcast, Gray cannot be the only top-tier addition to the rotation. If healthy, Ohtani would be a bargain for the Cardinals, they'll just have to wait a year for him to be ready.

Ohtani the St. Louisan?

Now, let's speculate. Obviously, if Ohtani doesn’t want to play in St. Louis, then the Cardinals have no shot of landing him in free agency. It’s been long reported that Ohtani prefers the West Coast as it’s closer to Japan, and while that is likely true it shouldn’t rule out the possibility he lands elsewhere. Prior to joining the Angels in 2017, Shohei’s shortlist of teams also included the Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Mariners, Rangers, and Cubs with the Rangers and Cubs notably being midwestern teams just like the Cardinals. Other skeptics have also wondered, like Kris Bryant, “Who would want to play in St. Louis?” Those who make this argument, however, have no understanding of Ohtani and his true desire: winning a championship.

Sure, St. Louis isn’t the most exciting city in the world, but for Shohei Ohtani, that shouldn’t be an issue. While playing for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB, Ohtani voluntarily lived in the team’s dormitories where he was only ever allowed to leave with permission from his manager and coaches despite being one of the most well-recognized superstars in Japan. He also stated that getting a driver's license in Japan was too much effort as he only wanted to go to and from the stadium anyway. When the Angels were in St. Louis in May, when Samurai Japan teammate Lars Nootbaar invited Ohtani to lunch, Ohtani declined as he was sleeping to recover for his upcoming start. Evidently, Ohtani’s sole commitment is to winning baseball games, and the location of the team he plays for shouldn’t play a role in where he signs.

For winning baseball, is there really a better place than St. Louis? Aside from the abysmal 2023, the Cardinals have been a model organization that’s in contention nearly every season and has a long-running tradition of championship success. Other than the Yankees, no other team has been as successful as the Cardinals at winning championships. The roster construction for 2024, assuming the Cardinals fulfill their commitment to adding pitchers in the offseason, also points to this winning trend continuing into the future.

Ohtani is certainly no stranger to members of the Cardinals organization. As mentioned earlier, he and Lars Nootbaar became close friends during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. In May, Nootbaar wrote in a piece for the Players' Tribune stating, “I wouldn’t trade playing in St. Louis for anything.” In addition to Nootbaar, Ohtani is also close to Cardinals legend and former Angels teammate Albert Pujols.

After being released by the Angels in 2021, Pujols called Ohtani during the Home Run Derby to provide him with words of wisdom. The two were also seen hugging and catching up at the 2022 All-Star Game. Pujols’ love for the Cardinals organization speaks for itself, and it’s no secret how much he preferred the winning culture in St. Louis compared to Anaheim. Ohtani himself had a front-row seat in 2019 when Albert clubbed a homer at Busch Stadium during his first trip back, receiving a thunderous curtain call as a visiting player.

Ohtani has played coy with the media when asked where he’d be interested in signing, so this is all merely speculation. There could be some unknown reason Ohtani dislikes the Cardinals, but we’ll never know if that's the case. If all Shohei wants a winning organization, however, St. Louis should be near the top of his list as a potential suitor.

So what now?

No, it's not happening. Like with Bryce Harper, the Cardinals are not interested in signing Shohei Ohtani this offseason. But, they're making a huge mistake. As we've established, Ohtani would be a perfect fit in St. Louis. The already potent lineup would become otherworldly with his threatening bat in the heart of the order. The disastrous pitching rotation could still be patched in 2024 with the team's remaining assets, and once Ohtani returns in 2025 it would instantly become elite. Moreover, millions of Japanese baseball fans would instantly become Cardinals fans. It would be Bill DeWitt's dream.

Unfortunately, for a front office that’s notoriously risk averse, they will not go down this route. However, if the Cardinals have learned anything from their failures in 2023 it’s that their old philosophies may no longer work. If there’s any year to take a big risk on one player this is the year. Even calling Shohei Ohtani a once-in-a-generation player is disingenuous. We’ve never seen anybody do what he’s capable of. Not even Babe Ruth. We may never see this again. 

The Cardinals need to offer Shohei Ohtani a competitive contract. He might not accept it. He might sign with a team he prefers more, and that’s fine. There will be multiple suitors in line offering similar deals, and for Ohtani, it’s never been about the money. Sadly, they just won't do it. Perhaps in five years, after another early Postseason exit, the Cardinals will watch Shohei Ohtani the Seattle Mariner hitting clutch home runs, headlining a top-tier pitching staff and wonder why they didn't sign him for such a bargain. Maybe then they'll finally learn from their mistakes.