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The Cardinals Biggest X-Factor for the 2023 season

By Josh Jacobs |
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Jack Flaherty is the Cardinals biggest X-Factor in 2023

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the more interesting teams in baseball heading into the 2023 season. They have MVP talents in the form of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, exciting young talents like Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, and a cast of supporting talent that could raise the club's ceiling or cause them to drift toward their floor.

There are a number of players who will greatly impact the club's ability to succeed in 2023, but none are as big of an X-Factor next season as starting pitcher Jack Flaherty.

Flaherty is entering his final year of control with the Cardinals, and was once one of the most exciting young starters in all of baseball. In his first full season in 2018, Flaherty went 8-9 with a 3.34 ERA in 151 innings of work, and flashed the signs of a pitcher who would be able to match up with anyone in baseball during his prime. The 2019 season further cemented that notion (more on that later), but injuries have robbed the now 27-year old of showing off his talent in recent years.

The Cardinals rotation is in flux as Flaherty is one of four starters who do not have a contract past 2023. The Cardinals have a solid five man group and pitching depth beyond those guys, but they lack a sure fire front-line starting pitcher, something that only Flaherty has the potential to be on this staff. Miles Mikolas and Jordan Montgomery have the ability to be really good number two starters for the club, but no one has the potential to anchor the rotation like Flaherty could.

Here are some reasons to be optimistic about Flaherty in 2023, and why his success could propel the Cardinals into true contention next season.

Jack Flaherty has shown he can be historically dominant

I know, we have all heard the narrative that "if Jack can recapture his 2019 form...". In all honesty though, we need to remember the guy is 27-years old, and still has the tools to be an ace for years to come.

In 2019, Flaherty went 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and 231 SO in 196.1 innings of work. At just 24-years old, he had one of the best second half performances in MLB history, with a 0.91 ERA and .142 OPP BA as St. Louis made a postseason push. This performance was more than just a lucky half of baseball. Flaherty began to throw his sinker and slider more a lessen his fastball usage a bit, something that many of the game's top pitchers have now done as well.

Flaherty figured something out during the 2nd half of 2019 that launched him into an elite category in today's game, and is why he finished 4th in Cy Young voting that year. If it were not for injuries over the last few seasons, we likely would have seem him build upon his new found success and confidence.

Evidence of this can be found in Flaherty's 2021 performance, where he was 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA over 78.1 innings before an oblique strain hampered the rest of his season. In the 62 innings before he really began struggling with that injury, his ERA was sub 3.00 and he looked like the dominant self he was just two seasons prior.

Upon his return in 2022, Flaherty strung together five straight starts of five or more innings. In two of those starts, he only allowed 1 run, and two others he gave up just 3 runs, including a big start against the San Diego Padres. If you spend some time watching some of those starts down the stretch, you'll leave encouraged that an off-season of training will lead to an epic return for Flaherty, barring injury.

That's the thing with today's pitchers. Many of them come with that tag line "barring injury". Cardinals fans, and even myself, can get frustrated about Flaherty's health, but in all reality, he's proven he can handle a starters workload in a way many young starters have not. Not only did Flaherty almost hit 200 innings in his elite 2019 season, but he also threw 151 innings in his rookie season and was well on his way to another 180-200 inning season in 2021.

In the near future, I'll address why I think the Cardinals should look to extend Flaherty, which may come as a surprise to many. But for a team that likes to lock up their own guys, especially at good values, extending Flaherty before the 2023 season could net the Cardinals a front-line starter for 2024 and beyond on a contract that would be signifcantly cheaper than what he would get on the open market.

Regardless of what the Cardinals decide to do with Flaherty's future, here is why his return to form in 2023 will make or break the Cardinals chances of a legitament run in the National League.

If Jack Flaherty can match up with other NL aces, he gives the Cardinals a legit chance at the World Series

Now, even with a healthy and productive Flaherty, the Cardinals are not going to be favorites over teams like the San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, or Atlanta Braves. But ace like production from Flaherty shrinks that gap significantly, especially if the Cardinals lineup takes another step forward in 2023.

In 2022, the Cardinals hitters ranked 3rd in all of baseball in fWAR, 5th in wRC+ and wOBA, and top 10 in so many other major offensive categories. Although the lineup benefited greatly from Albert Pujols' magical second half at the plate, it's pretty easy to see why the lineup should be better in 2023.

The club got a significant upgrade at the plate at catcher, going from a negative value to one of the best hitting catchers in the game in Willson Contreras. The uptick in offensive production alone at that position will be a huge addition for the Cardinals. Even with the loss of Pujols, people are quick to forget how bad he was before that run, and how little production the Cardinals were getting from the DH spot.

Rebound seasons from Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson are appear to be coming, as O'Neill is changing his training program and Carlson will look to rebound from his wrist injury in 2022. The continued development of guys like Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan, as well as debut of Jordan Walker, should all help the Cardinals lineup take another step forward in 2023, even with some potential regression from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Just look at how deep the Cardinals lineup is projected to be in 2023.

The Cardinals are projected to have an above league average hitter 1-9 in their lineup, with guys like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Alec Burleson expected to be significant contributors as well and not even included in this graphic.

If the Cardinals have this deep of a lineup and an ace to lead them in a playoff series, they have the tools to compete with the best in the National League and could be any team in any given series. Miles Mikolas and Jordan Montgomery make for a really nice 2-3 punch to follow, and the Cardinals bullpen remains good, potentially great.

But without an ace to go toe to toe with the likes of Justin Verlander, Max Fried, Julio Urias, Joe Musgrove, and Aaron Nola, the Cardinals will have a punchers chance, at best, to beat any of the leagues best. The Cardinals need Jack Flaherty to be an ace in 2023, and if he is, this team's ceiling is significantly higher than we may think it is today.

Next. Cardinals rank 16th in payroll for 2023. dark

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