The Cardinals' best month of baseball in 2023 is their blueprint for success in 2024

It's hard to find a time during the 2023 season when it felt like things were going right for the St. Louis Cardinals. From the jump, the club had one of the worst records in baseball and seemed to have problem after problem arise all year long.

Except for the month of May.

Coming off an eight-game losing streak that was snapped against the Detroit Tigers on May 7th, the Cardinals were 10-24 and their season was on life support already. Starting with that win in the series finale against the Tigers, the Cardinals went on an 11-3 stretch, taking two of three from the Cubs in Chicago and sweeping the Red Sox in Boston, followed up by winning two of three against the Brewers at home and three of four against the Dodgers.

The Cardinals would end up finishing the month of May 15-13, which would put them on pace for an 87-win season if extended out to 162 games. Yes, they were very streaky that month, having both an 11-3 stretch and an 0-5 stretch mixed in there, but overall, it was their best month of baseball and even gave some people hope that they could turn things around by the time the deadline came and went.

Unfortunately, things continued to fall apart for the Cardinals. Outside of July, May was the only month of the year where the Cardinals had a winning record - but what contributed to the massively different outcomes the club had in May compared to the rest of the season?

I believe the very things that can make the Cardinals a contender in 2024 are what led to the club's success in May of 2023, and there's even a bit of wiggle room that I think the 2024 club will improve upon.

Let's take a look.

What led to success for the Cardinals in May of 2023?

I did a similar exercise looking at why things began so badly for the Cardinals in 2023, breaking down their 10-18 month of April and what contributed to the wheels falling off so early. What I found was the following:

1. The rotation was bad, and they were not giving the Cardinals quality starts.
2. The lineup was okay, but not playing anywhere close to its potential.
3. The bullpen numbers looked good, but most of their high-leverage relievers were blowing games.

Makes sense right? If the rotation is bad and not eating innings, and the bullpen is blowing leads, you're not going to win games, especially if the lineup is only okay for most of that time. You can check out my in-depth breakdown here, as a closer look at the numbers tells the story even further.

So what changed during the month of May?

Let's look at the numbers.

Cardinals pitching in May 2023

Before we look at the numbers, you'd think that their best stretch of baseball would have resulted in much-improved numbers from their pitching staff. Well, that actually wasn't the case.

Their rotation and bullpen produced virtually the same results as they did during the month of April, outside of a major uptick in the starter's FIP. Let's look at how each of their starting pitchers performed, as that tells an even more interesting story than those numbers do.

The Cardinals had one starter who was on his game during the month of May. Four different starters gave them 21 starts that month and each of those starters had an ERA between 5.18-6.15.

Why is this important? Well, the Cardinals went 15-13, an 87-win pace, with an awful rotation throughout the month of May. I know people want to beat up on the Cardinals' rotation right now, but it would truly be shocking if four of their five starters had an ERA north of 5.00 during the season. If the club gets the uptick in quality starts they believe they will this season, they'll be even better situated than what the rotation gave them in their best month of baseball last year.

Now, obviously, this rotation is not good enough to carry the team, which is why the club will need strong performances from their bullpen and lineup. Well, that's exactly what they got in May of 2023.

If you go back and look at the month of April, most of the Cardinals' best relievers were bad in April, so whenever the club did have the lead, they couldn't keep it. While the overall output from the bullpen was similar to what it gave them in April, their most important relievers were the ones who were producing at a high level.

Last year, St. Louis relied on Helsley, Gallegos, Cabrera, and Hicks early in the season to pitch in high-leverage situations. This year, they are banking on the group of Helsley, Gallegos, Romero, Kittredge, and Middleton, along with arms like Pallante, Fernandez, O'Brien, and Liberatore. It's a much better bet this time around (in fact, MLB just ranked the Cardinals' bullpen as the 7th best in baseball)

Improvement from the rotation and a strong bullpen puts them in a position to carry the momentum they had in May last year during the entire 2024 season, but it's the offense that will truly "win" them games.

Cardinals offense in May 2023

Oddly enough, just like you'd think the starting pitching was better than it was last May, the offense actually was not as good as you'd think it would be during their best run of baseball. What they did do was push runs across the plate at a high level.

The Cardinals ranked top 8 in most major offensive categories before the trade deadline last year, but the one category they consistently lagged behind in was runs scored. Well, they ranked fourth in all of baseball in runs scored in May, and a major reason for that was their middle-of-the-order bats producing at a high level...shocker right?

Nolan Gorman was on another level during May, but frankly, he was all season outside of June. While he was one of the worst hitters during that June stretch, Gorman posted a 137 wRC+ in all other months of the year (338 plate appearances). If Gorman is able to replicate (or even take steps forward) his offensive performance in 2024, he's the perfect number-three hitter for this club. Considering Gorman was second only to Aaron Judge in Barrel% during the second half, it's safe to say he's going to be a monster again.

Both Arenado and Goldschmidt swung hot bats as well, something that would contribute greatly to their success. Whether it's Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, Walker, Nootbaar, or Donovan, the Cardinals need a core three to step up and perform in the middle of their order so they get runs across the plate at a high level.

Cardinals' blueprint for success in 2024 summarized

In short, here is how I would describe how the Cardinals found success in 2023:

1. The starting rotation was a liability. Basically, the Cardinals consistently had 3-4 starting pitchers with an ERA north of 5.00, and often times they were north of 6.00. The bar for improvement is incredibly low, much lower than fans give it credit for. And if Sonny Gray/Kyle Gibson/Lance Lynn can be what the Cardinals think they will be, they'll triple the amount of quality starts they got last year.

2. The bullpen was a top-10 unit when they were playing well. The club had multiple relievers they could turn to in order to maintain leads.

3. The lineup was elite. Even though the overall production wasn't as high during the month of May, their most important hitters were producing, which led to an uptick in runs scored.

So, if the Cardinals have a top offense in 2024 (like they should) and their bullpen is one of the top 10 in baseball (like many project it to be), they have the ability to overcome their starting pitching woes. And once again, the rotation last year was much worse than some even realize, so while Lynn and Gibson are not inspiring upgrades, they do project to be substantial improvements to their mix.

If you read my content this offseason, I was very clear that I would have been much more aggressive in upgrading the rotation. Sonny Gray was an excellent addition, but I would have brought in someone like Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Dylan Cease, Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, or someone on that level to pair with Gray.

Still, just because I disagree with the strategy and think it's a mistake, doesn't mean this club cannot be competitive in 2024. The major for error is much thinner, but it's not hard to see a path toward contention once again this coming season.