The Cardinals are in talks for Pablo Lopez, here is what the trade may look like

The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly in preliminary trade discussions with the Miami Marlins centered around starter Pablo Lopez, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (paid subscription required).

We've talked a length this off-season about a variety of options that the Cardinals could pursue to top their rotation for the 2023 season, and Lopez has been a name that is consistently attached to them in their pursuits. Rosenthal's sources indicated that the clubs have had discussions, but names that are attached to the conversations have only been speculated to this point.

Rosenthal connected Lars Nootbaar as who would likely be the Marlins' preference, but the Cardinals were reluctant to include him in any negotiations this off-season when they were pursuing catching targets. He did point out that they've been open to moving Dylan Carlson though, and although there have been no indications that they'd move Tyler O'Neill, he's another name floated out there.

I'm a bit skeptical as to how much of an upgrade Lopez is to the Cardinals' rotation. He would provide some more certainty to the rotation and be the "ace" of the staff, I just have a hard time believing he fills the need of someone who can truly match up with the best starters in baseball. I don't think it would be a bad idea to acquire Lopez, but I do think they need to be careful how much they give up, as I'd rather have those resources to pursue a true ace later.

In 2022, Lopez went 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA in a career-high 180 innings pitched. If he truly can handle a larger workload now and repeat his All-Star like first-half numbers, he'd be a really nice addition to the arms St. Louis already has.

Here are a few different ways I could see this trade panning out for the Cardinals and Marlins should they decide to pull the trigger on a Lopez deal.

Trade #1 - Dylan Carlson for Pablo Lopez

In my opinion, the Cardinals would be selling very low on Dylan Carlson in this trade, but based on their willingness to part with him in other deals this off-season, I think the possibility of a Carlson-Lopez swap has to be considered.

It is no secret that the Marlins want to improve their lineup and specifically would like to upgrade in center field. Carlson is a former top prospect in all of baseball and was very good in his rookie season for St. Louis, but 2022 seemed to put a bad taste in the mouth of fans. Carlson dealt with a wrist injury that limited a lot of what he could do offensively and it showed. His .695 OPS made him tough to play consistently down the stretch in 2022, especially against right-handed pitching.

Carlson is far too talented to repeat the same struggles he had in 2022. What's encouraging is that even in a down season, he still put up a .845 OPS against left-handed pitching and played Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. It seems likely that Carlson reestablishes himself as a promising player in 2023.

For the Marlins, grabbing Carlson would be a great way to swap one of their many starters for a controllable center fielder who could end up hitting at the top of their lineup for years to come. If I were the Cardinals, I would look at a different deal instead.

Trade #2 - Tyler O'Neill and Joshua Baez for Pablo Lopez

Similar to Carlson, Tyler O'Neill seems too talented to not rebound in a big way in 2023, especially if his new training program helps solve some of his injury woes for St. Louis.

O'Neill only mustered up a .700 OPS in 96 games in 2022 but is just a year removed from being a 50% above league average hitter with a .912 OPS while winning a Gold Glove and finishing 8th in MVP voting. O'Neill has talked this off-season about his arbitration case weight heavy on his mind last season and impacted his play, and he made it a priority this off-season to resolve it so he could focus on his play in 2023.

While I would love to see the Cardinals hold onto O'Neill and prove himself once again, if the Cardinals do think they need to move an outfielder to clear up some of the logjams, I could see why O'Neill is someone they would explore dealing for pitching. He is the closet to free agency out of their current outfielders, so there is an appeal in holding onto Nootbaar, Carlson, and Jordan Walker as the outfield of the future.

Still, I struggle to give up on O'Neill, especially while his value is so low, because of the big bat he could return to being in 2023, which is exactly why the Marlins would want him. O'Neill would be capable of playing center field for them, but would also bring a powerful bat to the middle of their order that could help transform their offense. There is risk involved with O'Neill though coming off a down, injury-prone year, which is why I think they would want a prospect like Joshua Baez as well.

Baez was a second-round pick for the Cardinals in 2021 and has a ton of raw power, that if tapped into, could project him to be a slugger in the vein of O'Neill. He still has a lot of developing to do, so he represents a long-term project for Miami to look into.