The Cardinals are in talks for Pablo Lopez, here is what the trade may look like

The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly in preliminary trade discussions with the Miami Marlins centered around starter Pablo Lopez, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (paid subscription required).

We've talked a length this off-season about a variety of options that the Cardinals could pursue to top their rotation for the 2023 season, and Lopez has been a name that is consistently attached to them in their pursuits. Rosenthal's sources indicated that the clubs have had discussions, but names that are attached to the conversations have only been speculated to this point.

Rosenthal connected Lars Nootbaar as who would likely be the Marlins' preference, but the Cardinals were reluctant to include him in any negotiations this off-season when they were pursuing catching targets. He did point out that they've been open to moving Dylan Carlson though, and although there have been no indications that they'd move Tyler O'Neill, he's another name floated out there.

I'm a bit skeptical as to how much of an upgrade Lopez is to the Cardinals' rotation. He would provide some more certainty to the rotation and be the "ace" of the staff, I just have a hard time believing he fills the need of someone who can truly match up with the best starters in baseball. I don't think it would be a bad idea to acquire Lopez, but I do think they need to be careful how much they give up, as I'd rather have those resources to pursue a true ace later.

In 2022, Lopez went 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA in a career-high 180 innings pitched. If he truly can handle a larger workload now and repeat his All-Star like first-half numbers, he'd be a really nice addition to the arms St. Louis already has.

Here are a few different ways I could see this trade panning out for the Cardinals and Marlins should they decide to pull the trigger on a Lopez deal.

Trade #2 - Tyler O'Neill and Joshua Baez for Pablo Lopez

Similar to Carlson, Tyler O'Neill seems too talented to not rebound in a big way in 2023, especially if his new training program helps solve some of his injury woes for St. Louis.

O'Neill only mustered up a .700 OPS in 96 games in 2022 but is just a year removed from being a 50% above league average hitter with a .912 OPS while winning a Gold Glove and finishing 8th in MVP voting. O'Neill has talked this off-season about his arbitration case weight heavy on his mind last season and impacted his play, and he made it a priority this off-season to resolve it so he could focus on his play in 2023.

While I would love to see the Cardinals hold onto O'Neill and prove himself once again, if the Cardinals do think they need to move an outfielder to clear up some of the logjams, I could see why O'Neill is someone they would explore dealing for pitching. He is the closet to free agency out of their current outfielders, so there is an appeal in holding onto Nootbaar, Carlson, and Jordan Walker as the outfield of the future.

Still, I struggle to give up on O'Neill, especially while his value is so low, because of the big bat he could return to being in 2023, which is exactly why the Marlins would want him. O'Neill would be capable of playing center field for them, but would also bring a powerful bat to the middle of their order that could help transform their offense. There is risk involved with O'Neill though coming off a down, injury-prone year, which is why I think they would want a prospect like Joshua Baez as well.

Baez was a second-round pick for the Cardinals in 2021 and has a ton of raw power, that if tapped into, could project him to be a slugger in the vein of O'Neill. He still has a lot of developing to do, so he represents a long-term project for Miami to look into.

Trade #3 - Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson for Pablo Lopez

The third and last trade is another combination of young bats that the Marlins could see as major upgrades to their offense, while the Cardinals trade from their logjams. Again, I don't really support the deals, but I can see a world where the Cardinals pull the trigger.

Nolan Gorman was one of the guys the Cardinals were willing to part with this off-season for the right player. With the emergence of Brendan Donovan this past season, and the potential of Tommy Edman sliding back to second base long-term when Masyn Winn arrives, Gorman is someone the Cardinals could look to capitalize on the value of.

Gorman did not set the world on fire during his rookie campaign, but I do think fans are harder on him than he deserves. Yes, his strikeouts are a major problem (103 SO in 283 AB), but he still managed an .721 OPS and had 27 extra base hits in just 89 games for the Cardinals. Gorman has legit power that can see him become a 30-40 HR a year guy at second base, which is extremely valuable.

The Cardinals really should find Gorman as many at-bats as they can at second base and DH this season, and allow him to grow as a hitter. I am sure the Marlins would love to see him in the middle of their lineup every day instead.

Alec Burleson is another guy who has a ton of talent but it's hard to pin down his role with the Cardinals. Nootbaar, Carlson, O'Neill, and Walker all appear to have inside tracks over him in the outfield, and even Donovan will see time out there. Juan Yepez will compete with him for at-bats DH along with Gorman, so flipping Burleson could make a lot of sense.

Burleson had very limited time in his Major League debut but slashed .331/.372/.532 with 20 HR and 87 RBI for Triple-A Memphis in 2022. Burleson is a corner outfielder and first baseman, and despite the really good hit tool he has, I am not sure he will be able to have consistent at-bats without some injuries happening first.

It would not shock me if any of these three trades went down before or during Spring Training. I would not be a huge fan of any of them, but I can at least see the logic for St. Louis. What do you think of these trades? Would you make a move for Pablo Lopez, or wait for a better option?