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The Cardinals and Marlins are perfect partners for an Ivan Herrera trade
The St. Louis Cardinals season has been a failure to this point. At this rate, there will be a number of changes that will need to happen throughout the organization. But barring them falling completely off the tracks and joining the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals at the bottom of baseball, they will not be entering a rebuild this year.
It's not fair to ask anyone to be patient anymore with this team, but it is fair to say their position in the standings can change a lot between now and July. Their own performance and the performance of the division will have a lot to do with the moves they make at the deadline.
At this rate, I do think a retool seems very likely for this club, but retools don't just consist of "selling off your assets". The club will likely look at a variety of options to improve the future of the club. Capitalizing on the value of impending free agents like Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and Paul DeJong makes a lot of sense.
Even if the Cardinals get some "return on investment" on these players at the deadline, that should not stop them from also acquiring talent using their prospects or outfield glut as well. The organization can go ahead and look to improve their club for 2024 at the deadline, they do not just have to wait for the offseason.
The Cardinals and Marlins look like perfect trade partners for a St. Louis retool
According to Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, the Marlins are currently monitoring the catching market as the trade deadline creeps up slowly. The club has outperformed expectations this year, and is currently in one of the NL Wild Card positions and very close to the Atlanta Braves for first place in the National League East.
The Cardinals and Marlins talked this past offseason about trades surrounding the Cardinals' outfielders, with Tyler O'Neill being named as a name discussed by Ken Rosenthal back in April. While a deal did not materialize then, one could soon now that another need the Cardinals can fill has arisen for the Marlins.
Ivan Herrera has been tearing it up in Triple-A Memphis this year and is primed to take over as a Major League catcher. The issue is, the Cardinals just locked up Willson Contreras long-term, and they don't seem all that interested yet in parting with Andrew Knizner. Now, I don't think they'd argue Knizner is a better option than Herrera long-term, but there are some interesting reasons why they could capitalize on his value now.
Let's look at why the Cardinals and Marlins would want to engage in a deal, and then what a deal could look like.
The Cardinals and Marlins have what each other needs in a trade
Herrera is just 23 years old and has been one of the Cardinals' best-performing prospects so far in 2023.
In 162 at-bats in Triple-A this year, he's hitting .296 with 6 HR and 34 RBI while positing a .956 OPS. His bat is mashing and would provide immense value for a big-league club. Herrera was fast-tracked to St. Louis last year because of how desperate the Cardinals were for catching help, and he's proving that he's still a very valuable prospect despite what seemed like a down 2022.
Why would the Cardinals part with a high-performing prospect like Herrera? Well, there are multiple reasons why they could value him highly as a trade asset right now.
First, Willson Contreras is in year one of a five year deal. It's very easy to rag on him right now with the slump he is going through, but the Cardinals really want, and honestly need, Contreras to be the kind of catcher who can perform most days of the week, at least for the first two or three years of his deal. They also really like what Andrew Knizner brings to their clubhouse and as a backup catcher. While I am sure they think Herrera will be better than Knizner, he may just not have a lot of opporunitiy in the near future.
St. Louis also has other catching prospects they are excited about right now, with the first one being Leonardo Bernal, a 19-year-old playing in Class-A Palm Beach. He is currently their 9th-ranked prospect on MLB.com, but many outlets think even higher of him long-term. He is just 19 and in Class-A though, so there is a long way to go in his development. They also have Jimmy Crooks III, a 21-year-old catcher in High-A Peoria who was drafted in the 4th round last year. He tore up Class-A last year and has been struggling a bit in High-A, but he has less than 100 minor-league games under his belt. Both players have an ETA of 2025.
For Miami, the prospect of getting a young, controllable catcher like Herrera should be very appealing for them. Miami has a wealth of young starting pitchers that would intrigue the Cardinals, which is where I think this deal would eventually go. The two names that come to mind for me are Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera. Luzardo is in year one of arbitration and does not hit free agency until 2027, while Cabrera isn't expected to hit arbitration until 2026. Both arms have a lot of potential, but the Marlins could part with the opportunity to improve their lineup in multiple areas.
Here is a trade package I think could work for both sides
Cardinals get a young starter, Marlins get multiple lineup pieces
St. Louis Cardinals receive: LHP Jesus Luzardo or RHP Edward Cabrera
Miami Marlins receive: C Ivan Herrera, OF Tyler O'Neill, and OF/1B Juan Yepez
It's really had to assess the value of starting pitchers in this year's market, as well as the value of guys like Tyler O'Neill and Juan Yepez with how the Cardinals have treated them this season. Still, I think this is a helpful framework, even if there would need to be adjustments to it.
Here's where I see Miami being interested. For as much as a premium, as there is on pitching, there is also one on catchers. Look around the league, how many teams are looking to part with good catchers? They do not become available often, especially ones with as much control as Herrera. It's a gamble for Miami for sure, but the same can be said for St. Louis.
O'Neill, for as rocky as the last year has been for him, is still a guy with immense potential who has put together a top-10 MVP-caliber season. Given a change of scenery, I think it's fair to at least expect him to be a great defender with streaky offensive numbers. It's a valuable piece for any team, and he has the potential to be so much more than that. Juan Yepez still has so much of his career ahead of him, and will likely become a mainstay in some team's lineup that gives him a chance. It just seems like the Cardinals are not going to be that team.
O'Neill makes a great platoon partner with Jesus Sanchez and provides another option for their outfield that lacks depth, Yepez can fill in at first base where the Marlins have struggled production-wise, and Herrera fills their major hole at catcher. Getting three quality starters, with two having a ton of club control, is a huge win for Miami.
For St. Louis, they part with one valuable asset in Herrera, and frankly, sell low on O'Neill and Yepez in order to take a crack at improving their current and future rotation.
Luzardo is 5-5 this year with a 4.17 ERA in 77.2 innings pitched, but his 10.3 SO/9 and 3.58 FIP are very encouraging. He ranks really high in average fastball velocity, whiff percentage, walk percentage, strikeout percentage, and chase rate as well. This is the kind of pitcher the Cardinals need to gamble on and may be worth giving up even more in this deal for.
Cabrera is in a very similar spot as Luzardo, having a 5-4 record with a 4.29 ERA and 4.13 FIP while striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings. His fastball velocity, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, chase rate, xBA, xSLG, and curve spin all look great this year as well.
Obviously, their ERAs are not ideal, but with each of them being age 25, it's the kind of gamble the Cardinals need to start making on pitching. The Cardinals would then have one of Cabrera or Luzardo and Libertaore on very affordable deals in their rotation next year, Mikolas making just $16 million next season and plenty of room to add an expensive arm in free agency or through trade while maintaining rotation depth.
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I believe both the Cardinals and Marlins would benefit from talking similar packages, but with how thin the starting pitching market is looking to be, it may require the Cardinals to pony up more. But having such a valuable catching prospect should give them a leg up in negotiations.
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