The best- and worst-case scenarios for each player on the St. Louis Cardinals' active roster

These are the realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for each player on the St. Louis Cardinals’ 26-man roster and three on the injured list.

After a Spring Training that saw several unexpected breakouts, the St. Louis Cardinals have pared down their roster to 26 players for Opening Day. Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Taylor Motter, Steven Matz, and Jake Woodford were among the most impressive performers at Spring Training, and they have all made it onto the roster. Masyn Winn was another standout, and while he will return to the minors for more development, he has likely accelerated his ascent to the major leagues.

The Cardinals had a few underperformers, including Dakota Hudson, Juan Yepez, and Andrew Knizner. Hudson and Yepez will begin the season in Triple-A and should serve as reinforcements, while Knizner will hold his incumbent job as a backup catcher, fending off new competitor Tres Barrera.

The other major position battles were for the starting outfield jobs, which Walker has played his way into, and a backup middle infield gig to replace the injured Paul DeJong, which went to Motter. 

Now that the 26 players have been chosen, it’s time to speculate on what the realistic highest and lowest outcomes are for each player on the roster as well as the three players who are starting the season on the injured list. A small disclaimer: I won’t be using injuries as the worst-case scenario for any players because those are the worst outcomes for any player and feel like a cop-out.

Nolan Arenado, 3B

Best-case scenario: MVP year

Nolan Arenado finished third in MVP voting last season, and it’s possible that he ascends even further in 2023. He hit .385 in the World Baseball Classic, and the last time he played in it, in 2017, he hit .357 in his first 15 games with the Colorado Rockies. Arenado’s enormous number of pulled fly balls and lack of strikeouts make him among the most dangerous hitters in the game, and he is still possibly the greatest fielder at third base in the game’s history. An MVP year wouldn’t be surprising.

Worst-case scenario: 2021 repeat and poor playoff production 

Arenado hit only .255 in 2021, albeit with 34 home runs and 105 RBIs, and it would be disappointing if he returned to those types of numbers. It seems unlikely since it appears he has adjusted to the usually offense-suppressing Busch Stadium. A repeat of his lackluster playoffs last year would also put a large dent in the team’s chances of going far in the postseason.

Alec Burleson, OF

Best-case scenario: Fourth outfielder

Alec Burleson started Spring Training slowly, but he picked it up over the last several games. A lot of it was rotten luck, as he displayed strong exit velocity throughout the spring. If Burleson can continue hitting the ball hard, there is a small chance he could leapfrog whomever the Cardinals appoint as their fourth outfielder, especially if they demote Jordan Walker to season him in Triple-A.

Worst-case scenario: Can’t hold a major league role

Burleson has a tentative hold on his roster spot, and Juan Yepez could be breathing down his neck in terms of a bench outfield role. Burleson is not an outstanding fielder, so he needs to hit to be able to keep a bench role. If he can’t get into a groove with just occasional playing time, he’ll likely be optioned to Memphis, a place where he has nothing to prove. Burleson is also a potential trade candidate; the Cardinals have a young outfield, and Burleson would likely develop faster if he’s on another team.

Dylan Carlson, OF

Best-case scenario: Everyday outfielder

It’s clear that Dylan Carlson can hit left-handed pitchers well, and if he is able to make strides against right-handers, Carlson could be a strong outfielder able to play all three positions. Carlson hit .275 with three home runs this spring, and over the offseason, he focused on adding muscle to increase his power production. A season with around 20 home runs isn’t out of the question.

Worst-case scenario: Fourth outfielder

While Carlson’s OPS against righties is .870, it’s a paltry .690 against lefties. With Jordan Walker likely to take a starting outfield spot, Carlson could be the odd man out if he doesn’t improve on that. He is still young at 24, and he could be of value to another team that believes it can get production out of him from the left side of the plate.

Tommy Edman, SS

Best-case scenario: Leadoff hitter and Gold Glover

Tommy Edman is projected to be the Cardinals’ No. 9 hitter on most days, but if he displays an uptick in his batting stats this season, a leadoff position isn’t out of the question, although that may better fit the skill set of Brendan Donovan. Edman also stole 32 bases last year, and with the bigger bases, 40 steals might be a possibility. He has also proven to be a top-of-the-line fielder, and continued production on defense will go a long way in making the left side of the infield possibly the best in baseball.

Worst-case scenario: Reserve utility player

Edman’s results varied wildly from month to month in his hitting, bottoming out at .198 in July, and the Cardinals would surely like to see him be more consistent throughout the season. Edman doesn’t have the upside many of the other young Cardinals infielders do, including Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and prospect Masyn Winn, so if Edman remains inconsistent, he may find himself passed by players who have higher ceilings, and he might be mentioned in trade talks.

Jack Flaherty, RHP

Best-case scenario: Cy Young Award contender

Jack Flaherty’s 2019 consisted of one of the best second halves in recent Cardinals history, where he had an 0.91 ERA and a .142 opposing batting average. While his production since then has not come close to that peak, Flaherty has the talent to be an ace. The Cardinals don’t have a rotation that stacks up to those of other playoff contenders, but a healthy and productive Flaherty could give the Cardinals a menace whom opponents dread to face.

Worst-case scenario: Borderline starter

The gulf between Flaherty’s best- and worst-case scenario is likely larger than that of any other Cardinal. Injuries over the past few years have sapped his velocity and strikeout stuff. He was smacked around for much of spring, with 14 earned runs in 19.2 innings. He also struck out only 15 batters. If Flaherty’s spring issues continue, the Cardinals are in trouble and will likely need to give up significant players to trade for an ace at the deadline.

Giovanny Gallegos, RHP

Best-case scenario: Strong setup man and occasional closer

The Cardinals’ bullpen success is quite dependent on Giovanny Gallegos’ production. Over the past four years, Gallegos has 212 appearances and a 2.85 ERA, making him a reliable player at a volatile position. Gallegos has been a pillar in the bullpen and should reliably provide a bridge to closer Ryan Helsley. Gallegos also has experience as a successful closer and could assume the role when Helsley needs a break or if he falters.

Worst-case scenario: Loses reliability and bullpen collapses

Gallegos was a bit shakier last year than he was in 2021, giving up 6.4 hits per nine innings after 5.7 in 2021. At 31 years old, he could be exiting his prime years. The Cardinals don’t have an established, reliable eighth-inning pitcher on the roster; the closest might be Jordan Hicks. If Gallegos is inconsistent for the first time in his career, the bullpen as a whole will likely be a liability.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

Best-case scenario: Repeat of 2022

The reigning National League MVP, Paul Goldschmidt dominated for most of the season and was in Triple Crown discussion for a period until he cooled off near the end of the season and in the playoffs. Any semblance of that kind of production will have the Cardinals jumping for joy, even if isn’t quite at last season’s level. Goldschmidt is a longtime star in the game, and a typical season from him will help the team immensely.

Worst-case scenario: Age catches up and defense slips further

Goldschmidt is 35 years old, and age eventually comes for every player. There were some warning signs in his stats under the hood last season, including his expected numbers against sliders and fastballs among the worst in his career. His fielding also didn’t match up to most of his previous seasons, as he was only two defensive runs saved above average. A larger-than-expected drop-off could be looming.

Nolan Gorman, 2B

Best-case scenario: All-Star second baseman

Nolan Gorman showed signs of a breakout last season with his elite barrel rate, and his stats this spring have proven extremely promising. He hit .280 in Spring Training and showed immensely improved defense at the keystone, and with average defense there, Gorman can be an everyday player with monster power, potentially making his first All-Star team.

Worst-case scenario: One-dimensional player

In 2022, Gorman hit only .192 against fastballs, and if he still has issues against elite velocity, he’s going to rack up a lot of whiffs. Strikeouts will always be a part of his game, but if power becomes his only attribute and the Cardinals can’t trust him in the lineup every day, he may be an odd man out in a crowded infield, or he could end up as trade bait.

Ryan Helsley, RHP

Best-case scenario: One of the best closers in the game

Ryan Helsley possessed some ridiculous stats last season, including a 1.25 ERA and 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, en route to grabbing the closing job. Helsley was fully healthy for the first time in his career, and barring an injury, a season resembling 2022 where the Cardinals can trot him out for the ninth inning with minimal worries is a real possibility. Expecting a repeat in the ERA department might be asking a bit much, but he has the skills to be an elite closer again.

Worst-case scenario: Loses closer’s job

Although unlikely, 2022 could prove to have been an aberration. Helsley was slightly more hittable in the second half of the season, although he was still very productive. His walk rate in 2021 was 5.1, and it was cut to 2.8 last year. If Helsley has trouble finding the strike zone and reverts to his previous years, he could lose his grip on the closer’s role.

Jordan Hicks, RHP

Best-case scenario: Seventh-inning reliever

Jordan Hicks has made it no secret that he would prefer to be a starting pitcher, but his time in that role in past seasons left a lot to be desired, as he struggled to work deep into games. However, when healthy, he has shown that he can be a weapon in the late innings with his record-setting fastball velocity. While Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley will be the main eighth- and ninth-inning relievers, respectively, a healthy Hicks could be a valuable bridge to them.

Worst-case scenario: Control issues and few strikeouts

Despite Hicks’ velocity, he has historically not missed many bats. His career strikeouts per nine innings rate is 8.8, and he has also struggled with his control. This spring, Hicks walked six batters in nine innings, and if he walks too many and can’t offset that with a lot of strikeouts, he will have no upside. He has also had issues staying healthy throughout his career, which is always a concern for pitchers who throw this hard.

Andrew Knizner, C

Best-case scenario: Serviceable backup

Andrew Knizner staved off Tres Barrera, no thanks to Knizner’s own performance this spring. If he is able to hit over .200 this season backing up Willson Contreras, I’d consider that a success. It would also help if he could clean up his defense, as he was nine defensive runs below average last season.

Worst-case scenario: Loses backup job

If Barrera flourishes in the minor leagues and Knizner’s poor spring translates to the regular season, the Cardinals might clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Barrera and use Knizner’s one remaining minor league option. Given the fact that Contreras will likely require more rest days than Yadier Molina did, the backup catcher position will prove more important than in years past, so performance will be more scrutinized.

Steven Matz, LHP

Best-case scenario: Top lefty in rotation

Steven Matz’s injuries and inflated ERA last season masked the best strikeout and walk rates of his career, and it’s possible that he breaks out and has a career year. He had a promising spring, pitching to a 1.53 ERA, striking out 17, and walking only three in 17.2 innings. It’s not out of the question for Matz to overtake Jordan Montgomery and be the best left-hander in the rotation.

Worst-case scenario: Bullpen arm

Matz has had a fairly consistent career, but he could be placed in the bullpen if injuries afflict him again and he isn’t able to return as a starter. He might be a strong long-relief option if he is relegated to that role, but the Cardinals will likely be desperate for starter production if that occurs.

Miles Mikolas, RHP

Best-case scenario: Repeat of last year

Miles Mikolas has been one of the Cardinals’ most consistent pitchers throughout his time with the team. He was the only Cardinals pitcher to eclipse 200 innings last season, and the team would love a season similar to 2022 where they can count on long outings nearly every time he takes the mound. His performance in the World Baseball Classic wasn’t spectacular, as he allowed nine hits in six innings, but a season like last year would be a huge boost to an iffy rotation.

Worst-case scenario: Pitch-to-contact approach falters

Pitchers who don’t have massive strikeout numbers and who pitch to contact have a thin margin for error, and with the shift being banned, Mikolas will likely see more balls find holes than in years past. Too many hits lead to higher pitch counts and fewer innings, and that would be catastrophic for a pitcher expected to go deep into games.

Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Best-case scenario: Strong second starter

Jordan Montgomery’s debut with the Cardinals after he came over from the New York Yankees at the trade deadline was a huge success. He changed his arsenal upon arriving in St. Louis, throwing far more four-seam fastballs and fewer sinkers. If Montgomery is able to garner more swings and misses and bump his 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings up a bit, he should provide quality innings as a No. 2 starter.

Worst-case scenario: Hitters adapt to his repertoire

Montgomery threw a metaphorical curveball to opponents in their scouting reports when he changed the frequency of his pitches, which could have given him an advantage with the Cardinals last season. His Spring Training performance was mediocre this year, with 17 hits and seven earned runs surrendered in 17 innings. If hitters have caught on to Montgomery’s new pitch strategies, it will be difficult for him to repeat last season’s results.

Taylor Motter, IF

Best-case scenario: Stays on the active roster all season

A strong spring with three home runs catapulted Taylor Motter onto the Opening Day roster when Paul DeJong went down with an injury. Motter has a chance to fend off DeJong when the latter returns, and if he plays well in his limited role, he could stay with the big league club as the last man on the roster.

Worst-case scenario: Optioned to Triple-A

If Motter’s spring doesn’t carry over to the big leagues, the Cardinals can use one of his options to have him serve as a depth piece in Memphis. DeJong, who has no options remaining, would likely replace Motter on the roster upon his return.

Packy Naughton, LHP

Best-case scenario: Solid sixth- or seventh-inning reliever

Packy Naughton has shown an ability to retire left-handers consistently, and as the second lefty in the pen alongside Zack Thompson, he could be thrust into some high-pressure spots. Ideally, Naughton will be deployed against left-handed-heavy lineups and be able to retire the occasional right-hander, especially with his changeup.

Worst-case scenario: Can’t retire righties and gets demoted

Naughton had issues against right-handed batters last year, who had a .374 average against him. With the extinction of the lefty specialist, Naughton will have to face some right-handers, and if he can’t find a way to get them out consistently, Memphis will beckon.

Lars Nootbaar, OF

Best-case scenario: All-Star season

Lars Nootbaar’s excellent second half of 2022, where he hit 10 home runs, has led many to proclaim him as a breakout candidate in 2023. A potential spark in the lineup and in the clubhouse, Nootbaar could be a strong option to bat second and might provide Gold Glove-caliber defense in the outfield. His Statcast numbers are off the charts, and if he can translate those to counting stats, he could be on his way to the All-Star game.

Worst-case scenario: Fourth outfielder

Although the metrics point to Nootbaar’s second half being repeatable, if Nootbaar returns to his underwhelming numbers in the first half of the season, where he hit only .200, his best role will likely be as a fourth outfielder and occasional defensive replacement. A question will be whether he can retain his walk rate, which led to a .846 OPS over the second half. If not, his on-base value will dry up.

Tyler O’Neill, OF

Best-case scenario: In MVP discussion

In 2021, Tyler O’Neill hit .286 and finished eighth in MVP voting. If he avoids the injuries that kept dogging him last season, a similar finish could be in the cards. O’Neill is a five-tool player who has a chance for about 30 home runs. He hasn’t taken advantage of his speed to steal a lot of bases in previous years, but the larger bases could remedy that and entice him to take off more often. 

Worst-case scenario: Inconsistent in the box and struggles to adjust to center field

If O’Neill experiences long stretches of poor hitting as he did last year, his tenure with the Cardinals could come to an end. Patrolling center field might also be an issue. O’Neill is not a great route runner; his strong fielding metrics are mostly due to his speed. While Carlson and Nootbaar would probably work as fourth outfielders if they have trouble producing, O’Neill’s skill set is too dynamic to have him sit on the bench often. His 2021 season could have several teams salivating at the opportunity to make him right.

Andre Pallante, RHP

Best-case scenario: Strong bullpen piece and spot starter

Andre Pallante’s reverse splits make him more of a weapon against left-handers than right-handers. If Pallante can use his slider more effectively by throwing it lower in the zone, he can be much more threatening against right-handers. The ground-ball artist also has the ability to be stretched out as a starter in case of an injury, and in an optimal scenario, he can be that reliable occasional starter as or serve as a bullpen mainstay.

Worst-case scenario: Bullpen liability and demotion

Pallante had some luck last season; he was near the bottom among pitchers in chase rate and whiff rate, and if he doesn’t adjust his arsenal to throw fewer fastballs and more sliders down in the zone, there could be rough seas ahead. Ineffectiveness in the bullpen would remove the possibility of occasional starts, and he might need to go to Memphis to make things right.

Wilking Rodriguez, RHP

Best-case scenario: Rounds out the bullpen

Wilking Rodriguez, the Cardinals’ Rule 5 selection in the major league portion of the draft, had a solid spring, throwing gas before being placed on the injured list with shoulder soreness. If he returns healthy with no ill effects, Rodriguez could emerge as a middle- or late-inning option with his triple-digit heater.

Worst-case scenario: Returned to the Yankees

If Rodriguez doesn’t prove productive after returning to the bullpen, provided he comes back from his injury, the Cardinals can’t demote him; rather, they would have to return him to his original team, the New York Yankees. Shoulder injuries are always concerning, and if Rodriguez struggles to retain his powerful arsenal or can’t command his pitches, the Cardinals may need to replace him.

Chris Stratton, RHP

Best-case scenario: Strong middle relief option

Chris Stratton’s metrics were uninspiring in 2022, but he boasts an elite curveball that he didn’t throw enough last year. If he adjusts his arsenal to feature that more under the tutelage of new pitching coach Dusty Blake, he could be a valuable veteran presence in the bullpen. 

Worst-case scenario: Low-leverage or mop-up reliever

At 32, Stratton could reach the decline phase of his career soon, and if he doesn’t change his arsenal, batters’ high exit velocities and Stratton’s low strikeout numbers could come back to bite him more than they did last year. If that’s the case, the Cardinals might have to relegate him to pitching in low-leverage situations.

Zack Thompson, LHP

Best-case scenario: Top lefty reliever

Zack Thompson had an outstanding spring and looks ready to handle high-leverage spots out of the bullpen. His curveball can be a lethal offering, one of the best pitches any Cardinal throws. Thompson could anchor the left side of the bullpen, and while the lefty specialist is gone, Thompson was almost as effective against right-handers last year as he was against southpaws. 

Worst-case scenario: Can’t be trusted in important situations and gets demoted

If Thompson has a setback and can’t bring his spring success to the games that matter, the Cardinals will have a gaping hole in the left side of the bullpen, likely forcing the team to find a solution at the trade deadline. His stats showed a bit of luck on his side last year, with a 3.89 FIP compared with a 2.08 ERA, so more adjustments could be necessary than what appears at first glance.

Drew VerHagen, RHP

Best-case scenario: Brings Japanese success to the Cardinals

Drew VerHagen pitched well in his two seasons in Japan, with a 3.49 ERA, and while he went down early last season after a poor start, he had a strong spring this year and, in an extended look, could prove that he found something effective overseas and be a successful reclamation project from Japan in the vein of Miles Mikolas.

Worst-case scenario: Can’t adapt to major leagues

VerHagen had a promising spring in 2022, but he was unable to translate it to the regular season, pitching to a 6.65 ERA in 21.2 innings. If he again proves that he isn’t able to consistently retire major league-caliber batters, he probably isn’t long for the roster.

Adam Wainwright, SP

Best-case scenario: Decent fifth starter

If Adam Wainwright returns from his groin strain and his velocity returns to levels near last year’s after he’s had a month to reset, his final year could be a moderately successful one assuming injuries don’t persist. Even at age 41, Wainwright has a nearly unparalleled ability to go deep into games and could be a valuable innings eater every fifth day.

Worst-case scenario: Can’t consistently pitch every fifth day

While all Cardinals fans want Wainwright to ride off into the sunset after one more strong year, there is a chance his borderline Hall of Fame career ends with a whimper. If Wainwright’s velocity loss in Spring Training is permanent or injuries continue to nag at him, the Cardinals will have trouble getting the innings they need from starters, leading to an overworked bullpen.

Jordan Walker, OF

Best-case scenario: Rookie of the Year

Jordan Walker displayed eye-popping numbers through much of Spring Training and rightfully made the Opening Day roster. Walker has all the tools and hits rockets off the bat, and he’s already one of the favorites for Rookie of the Year, competing with Corbin Carroll in most projectors’ eyes. He looks like the complete package and could be a linchpin in the Cardinals’ lineup, providing thump for years to come.

Worst-case scenario: Has trouble adjusting to the major leagues

After Walker hurt his shoulder in a headfirst slide about midway through Spring Training, his numbers dipped. While it could be a result of the injury, Walker has also faced more major league-caliber pitchers in the back half of spring. He didn't walk much in the spring, and there’s a chance that he could be ticketed to Memphis if pitchers find a way to exploit him. That could lead to questions about whether the Cardinals promoted him too soon.

Jake Woodford, RHP

Best-case scenario: Holds on to rotation spot

If Jake Woodford proves that his strong spring is for real, he might be able to keep a spot in the rotation after Adam Wainwright returns from injury. He likely wouldn’t move Wainwright to the bullpen, but if someone else in the rotation has proven ineffective or has gone to the injured list by that time, Woodford might be able to mitigate that loss.

Worst-case scenario: Minor league depth

If Woodford doesn’t display the kind of dominance in the regular season that he did in the rotation and can’t even keep a solid grasp on the long relief role he was originally slated to possess, the Cardinals could use his one remaining option to let him try to figure out his problems in Memphis and possibly place Andre Pallante in his long relief spot.

The Cardinals could go many different directions this season based on how some key players shake out, and this overview should give fans a decent look at what their floors and ceilings might look like.