The A-Team: How did the potential 2024 Cardinals lineup perform in 2023?

The 2024 St. Louis Cardinals lineup appears to be set in stone. Who plays against a left-handed pitcher and who plays against a right-handed pitcher could change, but the main core of next year's lineup is set. In no particular batting order, the lineup figures to look something like this next year:

Catcher: Willson Contreras
First base: Paul Goldschmidt
Second base: Brendan Donovan
Third base: Nolan Arenado
Shortstop: Masyn Winn
Left field: Lars Nootbaar
Center field: Tommy Edman
Right field: Jordan Walker
Designated Hitter: Nolan Gorman

That's a pretty potent lineup on paper, and with reserves such as Ivan Herrera, Dylan Carlson, Richie Palacios, and Alec Burleson, the team has plenty of flexibility and talent both in the starting lineup and on the bench. In a perfect world, those nine players would play every game of the season; however, we all know that's not going to happen. Injuries, trades, or underperformance may force Oliver Marmol's hand next year.

I wanted to take a look at how these nine players played together last year. Sadly, Masyn Winn wasn't called up until mid-August, and by then Brendan Donovan was on the injured list. There were sixty-five games where at least seven of those nine players played together last year. That's a decent sample size to see how this lineup would perform next year together.

From a basic statistical standpoint, the chart below compares last season's team stats to the sixty-five games that at least seven of the players above played in. I have dubbed this collection of players the "A" Team.

There are two numbers there that stand out to me: runs scored and winning percentage. Had the Cardinals averaged 4.68 runs per game last year instead of 4.4, they would have been tied with the Mariners for 12th in the league instead of sitting 19th; conversely, the Cardinals' A-Team last year would have won fewer games given their winning percentage as a group. The pitchers weren't to blame necessarily, as the runs allowed average is similar.

Here is a month-by-month breakdown of the 2024 Cardinals' roster performances in 2023.

June

The month of June was another plummet from the heights for the Cardinals' A-Team. They finished the month with a 5-10 record, and they experienced perhaps their worst loss of the season on April 29th against the Houston Astros. Houston won 14-0, Adam Wainwright allowed six earned runs in just 1.2 innings, and the offense only tallied four hits in the game.

The supposed best hitters on the team scored just 3.53 runs per game, and they batted 0.231 across fifteen games. Lars Nootbaar went on the Injured List once again, Masyn Winn still hadn't been called up, and other players such as Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker struggled, particularly Walker in his return to the majors.

There were three games in June where eight of the nine starters in 2024 played together. Only Masyn Winn was missing, as he was still raking in the minors. On June 19th, 25th, and 29th, The Cardinals played the Nationals, Cubs, and Astros respectively. They beat the Nationals and Cubs but lost badly to the Astros.

The pitchers allowed nearly six runs a game, but when the offense struggles to score more than four runs in a game, it's tough to pin a sub-.500 month on one particular group. Brendan Donovan and Paul Goldschmidt carried their weight this month, but the rest of the team failed to live up to expectations. June was tough for the best players on the Cardinals in 2023.

July

Due to injuries, Masyn Winn still being in AAA, and a variety of players getting rest, July only featured six games where seven or more of their 2024 starters played together. Those players led the team to a meager 2-4 record.

The offense improved from May, and they averaged 4.33 runs per game, but the team average dropped to just .223 in six games. The pitchers showed improvement as well, as they allowed only 4.67 runs per game.

The main issue for the Cardinals in the month of July was an inability to hit with runners in scoring position. In the six games where seven or more of the Cardinals' 2024 starting lineup played together, they went 8-44 with runners in scoring position. The players were depleted both physically and mentally at this point and the drive to win and perform was fading quickly.

Lars Nootbaar, Willson Contreras, and Brendan Donovan continued to shine, and Nolan Arenado was returning to his MVP-caliber form. Edman's wrist injury kept him out of the lineup for most of July. The impending Trade Deadline and overall team underperformance thus far seemed to be weighing on the team's best players.

August

After the Trade Deadline, team morale was pretty low. Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Genesis Cabrera, and Paul DeJong were no longer with the team, and it was clear that the Cardinals were not going to make the postseason.

However, there were still nine games where at least seven of the projected 2024's nine starters were in the lineup together. Brendan Donovan went down with an injury late in July, thus keeping him out in August, and Masyn Winn was called up on August 17th. This roster reconstruction led to some inconsistency amongst the team's best players.

The offense maintained its strong pace, as they scored 4.89 runs per game, and the pitching staff allowed exactly 4.89 runs per game as well. As a team, these seven players batted .265 in the month. Contributions among the team's best players were spread out pretty evenly, but Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt continued to lead the offense.

By the end of the month, the Cardinals' A-Team finished with a 5-4 record, its second-best monthly winning percentage of the year. Given the team's low morale, it is noteworthy that its best players led the team to a decent record in August in their nine games together. It gives me confidence that these starters will perform well next year.

September

The final month of the season had the most consistency. Of the ten games where at least seven of next year's starting lineup played together, six of them included eight of next year's starting nine players; Brendan Donovan was on the Injured List for the remainder of the season, so he was not on the roster during September.

The offense caught fire in September, and the team's best players averaged 5.7 runs per game, a glimpse of the offensive potential of this roster. They hit .253 as a group, and the A-team closed out the month with a 6-4 record, the best record in any month of this exercise.

Willson Contreras was practically unstoppable up until his injury late in September, and he led the offense this month. He hit .366, and when he played with other 2024 starters, Contreras was able to have five multi-hit games. He, paired with Adam Wainwright's masterful performance and the bullpen's stout showing, got Waino his 200th career win on September 18th against the Brewers.

Jordan Walker began showing his offensive potential, and Nolan Arenado returned to hitting like the Nolan Arenado of old. For as disappointing of a season 2023 was the team's 2024 starters sure showed up strong in September of 2023. Should this offense produce next year the way it did in the last month of the 2023 season, the Cardinals will be tough to beat in 2024, especially with a new crop of starting pitchers.