The 7 biggest issues that led to the demise of the St. Louis Cardinals

"You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain." Harvey Dent had a point, and the St. Louis Cardinals seem to have embodied that quote in the eyes of their own fanbase in recent years.

While Bill DeWitt III may think it's the "casual" fans who have seen enough of the club's decline to take it much longer, just looking at the empty seats in Busch Stadium as of late, fan surveys like the one done by The Athletic before the season, and the general vibes on social media tell you that even the most passionate and optimistic fans struggle to see the light anymore.

Frankly, ownership will have to see it sooner or later as well. The frustration fans have in 2024 is not just boil over from the failure of a year that 2023 was, it's been the compounding issues that fans, media, and industry insiders have seen for years that are finally rearing their ugly heads in St. Louis.

Look, a losing season is not the end of the world. It's virtually impossible for an organization to maintain the level of success the Cardinals did during John Mozeliak's tenure. Yes, fans want more World Series championships, and rightfully so, but the accolades are there.

• The club set a franchise record with five straight postseason trips from 2011-2015, including a World Series title in 2011, four straight NLCS appearances from 2011-2014, and another World Series appearance in 2013. In fact, during that stretch of NLCS appearances, the Cardinals either won the World Series or lost to the eventual champion every year.
• The Cardinals are tied for the fourth most World Series championships since 2007, with only three clubs winning multiple titles in that time period.
• 15 consecutive winning seasons from 2008-2022
• Six National League Central titles.
• The third most winnings of any Major League Baseball team during John Mozeliak's tenure.

I'm not trying to kiss the front office's ring here, I'm just pointing out that it's been a successful era, but it's clear that in recent years, things have fallen off, and now it feels like the wheels are completely off the tracks.

Since 2015, things have taken a noticeable shift. Let's break up the John Mozeliak tenure into two time periods: 2008-2015 and 2016-2024.

Have they still been competitive since 2016? Sure. But they haven't been one of the premier contenders like the Dodgers, Braves, or Astors since 2015. And while their culture was able to help them rebound from a difficult three-year stretch from 2016-2018, they have truly slipped into mediocrity since Game 2 of the 2022 Wild Card Series.

As we sit on what I believe to be the beginning of the end of the John Mozeliak era, I think it's time that we take a look back at what led to the demise of the St. Louis Cardinals. Again, this is not some hit piece on Mozeliak, as the issues don't all fall on his shoulders, but it is clear that it's time for major changes in St. Louis, and these six issues contributed to their downfall.

#7 - Burning cash on the wrong kind of talent

Honestly, I think the Cardinals' lack of spending or blaming the club's issues on bad contracts can be overstated at times - but that has definitely been part of the issue. I just believe there are a number of other issues that have plagued them even more than some bad salaries on their books.

Just ask any Cardinals fan to name some bad contracts the club has handed out in recent years, and they'll rattle off a plethora. Free-agent acquisitions such as Mike Leake, Dexter Fowler, Andrew Miller, Greg Holland, Brett Cecil, and Steven Matz come to mind for many fans. Extensions for players like Miles Mikolas, Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, and Carlos Martinez also did not age well. It's true, the club has not always spent their money well.

Every club hands out bad contracts, and honestly, there are a lot of organizations that we could rattle off that sent themselves into a rebuild solely off bad free-agent signings. The Cardinals haven't done that per se, but their bad spending has certainly helped erode their on-field performance.

I'll address the kind of talent they should have been targeting with their money later, but a common theme I see with the mistakes in contracts they hand out is overpaying for mid-tier talent.

Names like Fowler, Leake, Matz, and Cecil were good but not great players that St. Louis spent a lot of money on. While those contracts tend to be "safer" in the sense that they won't sink your payroll like those failed mega-deals can, they can still become dead weight on your books, and at the very least prevent the club from taking a big swing at top-end talent.

The Cardinals have not been afraid to trade for expensive talent. They pulled off a trade for Giancarlo Stanton before he vetoed it and went to New York instead. They traded for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. But the club has been hesitant to extend big time offers to big time free agents ever since they were spurned by both David Price and Jason Heyward.

I love the signings of Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray in the last two offseasons. While neither guy was necessarily the "superstar" of their free agent class, they certainly fit the bill of top-end talent. But it's notable that the club paid up for those guys who "wanted to be in St. Louis". They have not been interested in bidding for names that may not be seeking St. Louis as their home but would consider them if they offered the largest contract.

We'll get more into the latter part of that conversation later, but ultimately, the Cardinals' reluctance to spend big in free agency has kept them from making massive mistakes, but has also prevented them from putting their team "over the top".

#6 - The erosion of trust from the fanbase

While this is due to every other issue I'll bring up in this story, I think one of the club's biggest blindspots in recent years has been its public relations with fans. No, I'm not at all talking about the Cardinals' communications department. I'm talking about how the front office and ownership addresses this fan base.

Kilcoyne's conversation with Bill DeWitt III this past week is a strong example of that. I know he's also frustrated with the club's performance, but DeWitt sounded a lot less worried about fan support and far less urgent about on-field performance than I would have thought (or at least than I think he should have felt). His comments along with those of Bill DeWitt Jr. at Winter Warm-Up this year sounded similar, as they both seemed to gloss over real issues that reporters in that room were bringing to their attention.

Mozeliak has not won many fans over in his own right in recent years. Sometimes he'll say something that's true, but the way he goes about it just drives an even bigger wedge between him and the fan base. It is Mozeliak's job to preach patience and to keep people from jumping overboard even when the ship is sinking, but his inability to even acknowledge the potential for a season like 2023 until it was too late was concerning. Now this year, there's more of the same, and with the season perhaps already being unrecoverable, the front office has yet to make any significant changes to itself or the coaching staff.

Frankly, winning helps cure a lot of issues, and so if the club had been doing that the last two years, the noise is probably more muted. Heck, even if they could have advanced further in the postseason since 2019 or managed to make another World Series since 2013, I think fans could have whethered a bit of the losing recently.

Instead, the front office and ownership carry itself like a championship organization, when it fact it has not been close to one for over a decade now. I am not one to scoff at their ability to consistently have a winning product on the field from 2008-2022, but this is a "What have you done for me lately?" business. 2023 and 2024 have been a mockery to this franchise, and they are too far out from the glory days to ride those coattails.

#5 - Getting fleeced in pivotal trades

“There’s a saying, ‘If you don’t make mistakes [on trades], you’re probably not trying.’ Do we wish we batted 1.000 [on trades]? Of course, but we are human, and we do make mistakes.”

That was John Mozeliak during the Winter Meetings this past offseason. He's right that the club is not going to win every trade it makes, but man, they've made more than their fair share of massive blunders on the trade market in recent years.

• We all know the infamous Marcell Ozuna trade where the Cardinals gave up two future front-line starters in Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara for the outfielder. Ozuna was fine in St. Louis, but far from the guy they hoped he'd be, while the other two went on to lead staffs and be among the best pitchers in baseball.
• They flipped outfielder Randy Arozarena for Matthew Liberatore, hoping he could be part of the answer to their pitching woes. Again, the Cardinals bet wrong, instead giving up an impact bat for someone who may end up being a middle reliever for them.
• Outfielder Adolis Garcia only netted the club cash in return and has had a similar career arc as his former teammate Arozarena.
• Lane Thomas for Jon Lester. Although Andrew Kittredge has been a huge part of the Cardinals' bullpen this year, Richie Palacios may find himself in this conversation. Tyler O'Neill looks like an MVP candidate again for the Red Sox. Jordan Hicks is pitching like an elite starter for the Giants.

Everyone they trade away seems to find success elsewhere. Yes, the Cardinals have won their fair share of trades (both Montgomery trades were a success for them, acquiring JoJo Romero and Giovanny Gallegos for spare parts were wins, Jose Quintana led them to the postseason, etc.), but overall, the bigger swings they have taken have hurt them big time.

Yes, the front office deserves massive praise for the Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arendo trades, there is no doubt about that. But it's also fair to say that unique circumstances helped both of those deals happen for packages we laugh at now. I won't hold that against the Cardinals at all, it's amazing they got those deals done without giving up a single piece they'd regret moving.

But it does feel like a problem to me that when they do make a trade that requires some risk, it has blown up in their face in some major ways. Losing both Gallen and Alcantara set the rotation back in a major way. The outfielders I mentioned are outperforming the current group St. Louis has. It is a major problem.

#4 - Not being aggressive enough for top-end free agents

I mentioned this earlier when I said the Cardinals have mostly gone after mid-tier free agents, but the club's reluctance to be major players for top-end free agents has caused them to miss several opportunites to put themselves among the elite teams in baseball.

Before the 2019 season, the Cardinals passed on signing 2015 National League Most Valuable Player Bryce Harper, who ended up signing a 13-year, $330 million deal with the Phillies. The Phillies have been to a World Series since Harper got there, the Cardinals have not. Harper was age 26 during the first year of that mega-deal and is just the 24th-highest-paid player in baseball. He's posted a .931 OPS in his six seasons so far with Philadelphia and won another MVP in 2021. Talk about a player who could have helped propel the Cardinals into another level of contention and would have brought in a ton of revenue.

Prior to the 2015 season, Max Scherzer was a free agent and was interested in coming home to play for the Cardinals. After the Nationals offered Scherzer a seven-year, $210 million deal, he told Adam Wainwright that he wanted to pitch in St. Louis, and if the Cardinals could just get in the "ballpark" of what the Nationals offered, he would sign in St. Louis. Bill DeWitt III has since said in interviews that it is one of his biggest regrets running the team.

Those are two cherry picked cases, but frankly, both decisions are inditement enough. You can expand the conversation out further to the superstar shortstops that hit free agency in recent offseasons or a number of starting pitchers the Cardinals said no to pursuing. I don't think passing on the Juan Soto trade was a massive mistake, but one could argue the fact they knew it wasn't worth the prospect capital since they couldn't resign him is the problem.

The Cardinals have had multiple opportunities to add true superstars to their roster for just money and a compensation pick. I commend them for not making a huge mistake signing a bad deal that tied their hands behind their backs for years, but their reluctance to sign big talent when it was literally knocking on their door (or in the case of Harper, no one was really knocking on his) is frustrating to say the least.

Frankly, it would have helped the club avoid other mistakes as well. If they had been comfortable signing big talent like Scherzer or Harper, maybe we wouldn't have seen some of the massive swings and misses they had on the trade market, and they are able to supplement their superstar talent with young arms or bats like Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, and others. Just a thought.

#3 - They fail to maximize their own bats while other organizations find a way to unlock them

In what started out as a nit-picky frustration with the Cardinals' front office has emerged into a full blown meme joke that the rest of the league is in on.

Even Mozeliak joked about it this past winter, saying Tyler O'Neill would "probably get MVP votes" after they trade him. Well, it looks like a self-fulfilling prophecy already, and is just another example in a long list of Cardinals hitters who have left St. Louis and been unlocked by another organization.

• O'Neill had a rough falling out with the Cardinals over the last two seasons. He was an MVP candidate in 2021, so it was clear the talent was there. Well, the Boston Red Sox have brought that back out of O'Neill, as he's posted a .981 OPS so far in 2024.
• Randy Arozarena was only given 23 plate appearances in St. Louis and went on to win American League Rookie of the Year, ALCS MVP, and an All-Star nod with the Tampa Bay Rays.
• Adolis Garcia was let go for nothing by the Cardinals and has gone on to make the American League All-Star team twice and won ALCS MVP honors last season en route to a World Series title with the Texas Rangers.
• Marcell Ozuna came to St. Louis fresh off an All-Star campaign, but they acquired him knowing he had a hurt shoulder. Ozuna posted a .777 OPS in St. Louis, far from what they had hoped from him. Since leaving St. Louis for Atlanta, Ozuna has posted an .843 OPS and leads all of baseball in home runs and runs batted in so far this season.
• Lane Thomas couldn't figure things out during his short tenure with the Major League club in St. Louis, posting a .625 OPS in 84 career games. He was then shipped to the Washington Nationals for rental starter Jon Lester and has posted a .747 OPS with his new organization.
• Richie Palacios was really good for the Cardinals in his short sample size in 2023 but was shipped out by the club for veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge. Kittredge has been great for the Cardinals so far, but Palacios' 143 OPS+ in 2024 and six years of club control could make that trade age poorly.

It's not just the fact that the Cardinals have let bats go who have gone on to have success elsewhere, it's that the bats they do keep are not finding the game kind of success. Jordan Walker is back in Triple-A for the second time trying to find his swing again. Nolan Gorman looks lost at the plate. Brendan Donovan has not been himself in 2024. Lars Nootbaar still has the flashy underlying metrics, but the results are not there. Dylan Carlson finished top-3 in Rookie of the Year voting and was a top prospect in baseball, and now he's a below league average bat who is a fine defender.

Believe me, I have so much confidence in Walker, Donovan, Nootbaar, and Gorman as players. I'm not calling them cases of failure by any means. But when the trend right now is their young bats underperform based on the talent and promise they have, and other bats go on to maximize their potential, that is a huge issue.

It makes you wonder what Carlson will look like when the Cardinals eventually move off of him. Will he find his swing again and join that long list of former Cardinals? How long will it take Walker, Nootbaar, Donovan, and Gorman to get things back on track?

#2 - Pitching development woes

Remember when the Cardinals were consistently pumping out exciting young arms? Yeah, I miss that too.

On the 2013 team alone, the Cardinals had Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, Jaime Garcia, Kevin Siegrist, and Trevor Rosenthal all at 26 years old or younger on the roster. Since then, names like Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes have risen through their system as top arms. They let talent like Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen go. The Cardinals used to be in a class of their own when it came to developing starting pitching.

And now? Well, you could argue the singular issue that has hurt their Major League roster more than anything else in recent years has been the lack of starting pitching talent developed from within the organization. Who was the last starting pitcher they developed in their farm system and became a staple in their rotation? Jack Flaherty? Dakota Hudson, kind of? If it's not those guys, you have to go all the way back to Martinez, Wacha, and Lynn.

I'll address the lack of quality from those starting pitchers they've relied on internally in a moment, but not even being able to get back-end of the rotation production from your farm system is a major reason why the club has continued to go out and sign veteran starters to fill their rotation.

According to TruMedia, the Cardinals have played 525 games since 2021, and only 200 of those games were started by a pitcher who had less than six years of service time/not signed to an extension or free-agent contract. That means just 38% of the starts they have gotten since the start of the 2021 season came from their own starting pitchers that they have developed and are on cost-controlled deals. That number would drop even lower if you didn't include the second-half starts from Cardinals' prospects in 2023 who would not have been pitching if they were still in contention.

The names won't inspire you either. 96 of those 200 starts from developed arms were Daniel Ponce De Leon, Drew Rom, Zack Thompson, John Gant, Johan Oviedo, Jake Woodford, and Matthew Liberatore. If you include the half-hazard attempt at letting Jordan Hicks start games, over half of those 200 starts came from arms that never really belonged in the rotation in the first place.

For a club that preaches the need to win using their farm system and having a strong pipeline, the free fall they've been on as an organization when it comes to pitching development is baffling. Ownership still hasn't invested in a pitching lab like so many organizations around the game have installed to maximize their talent.

On the bright side, arms like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse, Quinn Matthews, and others have a chance to change this tune over the next few years. But it does not change the fact that St. Louis has lagged in this area for years now and it's hurt their Major League club in a big way.